Detailed Predictions for: Elk Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 4000
LZ Altitude (f): 1600
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time:

 N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 69 69 NW 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 66 66 NW 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 66 66 N 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 65 65 N 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 64 64 N 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 63 63 NE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 65 65 NE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 66 66 NE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 70 70 ENE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 73 74 ENE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 75 78 ENE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 73 77 E 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 80 86 E 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 84 90 E 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 86 92 SSE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 87 92 SSE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 88 91 SSE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 88 90 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 87 87 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 84 84 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 73 73 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 69 69 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 66 66 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 63 63 WSW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 61 61 WSW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 59 59 WSW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 58 58 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 57 57 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 56 56 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 55 55 W 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 57 57 W 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 58 58 W 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 62 62 SW 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 66 67 SW 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 68 71 SW 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 66 70 SSW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 73 79 SSW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 77 83 SSW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 79 85 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 79 84 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 81 84 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 81 83 WSW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 80 80 WSW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 77 77 WSW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 69 69 WNW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 65 65 WNW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 62 62 WNW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 60 60 WSW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 58 58 WSW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 56 56 WSW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 56 56 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 55 55 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 54 54 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 53 53 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 55 55 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 56 56 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 61 61 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 65 66 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 67 70 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 65 69 WNW 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 73 79 WNW 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 78 84 WNW 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 80 86 WNW 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 80 85 WNW 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 81 84 WNW 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 82 84 WNW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 81 81 WNW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 78 78 WNW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 71 71 WNW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 67 67 WNW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 64 64 WNW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 62 62 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 61 61 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 59 59 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 59 59 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 58 58 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 57 57 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 56 56 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 58 58 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 59 59 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 64 64 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 67 68 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 69 72 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 67 71 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 74 80 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 79 85 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 81 87 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 81 86 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 83 86 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 83 85 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 82 82 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 79 79 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 69 69 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 66 66 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 62 62 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 59 59 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 58 58 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 55 55 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 55 55 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 54 54 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 53 53 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 52 52 NNE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 54 54 NNE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 55 55 NNE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 60 60 NNE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 64 65 NNE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 67 70 NNE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 64 68 WSW 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 72 78 WSW 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 77 83 WSW 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 80 86 WSW 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 80 85 WSW 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 81 84 WSW 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 82 84 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 81 81 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 78 78 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 69 69 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 65 65 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 62 62 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 59 59 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 58 58 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 55 55 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 55 55 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 54 54 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 53 53 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 52 52 NNE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 54 54 NNE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 55 55 NNE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 60 60 NNE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 64 65 NNE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 67 70 NNE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 64 68 SSW 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 72 78 SSW 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 77 83 SSW 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 80 86 SSW 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 80 85 SSW 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 81 84 SSW 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the Weather Channel website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the Weather Channel estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the Weather Channel website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com