Detailed Predictions for: Elk Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 4000
LZ Altitude (f): 1600
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time:

 10 MAR 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
7 AM Wed 30 30 E 6 2582 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 32 32 E 6 2582 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 34 35 E 6 2582 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 37 39 NW 5 5173 4000 0 Blue 2
11 AM Wed 38 41 NW 5 6048 4043 43 Blue 4
12 Noon Wed 40 43 NW 5 6778 5527 1527 Blue 6
1 PM Wed 41 44 W 6 7082 5995 1995 White 7
2 PM Wed 42 44 W 6 7082 5995 1995 White 7
3 PM Wed 42 43 W 6 6778 5527 1527 Blue 6
4 PM Wed 41 41 W 6 6048 4043 43 Blue 4
5 PM Wed 40 40 W 6 5574 4000 0 Blue 3
6 PM Wed 38 38 W 6 4126 4000 0 Blue 1
7 PM Wed 35 35 NW 4 2582 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 34 34 NW 4 2582 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 33 33 NW 4 2582 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 33 33 N 3 2582 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 32 32 N 3 2582 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 32 32 N 3 2582 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 32 32 N 3 2582 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 32 32 N 3 2582 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 31 31 N 3 2582 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 31 31 N 2 2582 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 31 31 N 2 2582 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 32 32 N 2 2582 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 33 33 NE 2 2582 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 36 36 NE 2 2582 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 40 41 NE 2 6048 4043 43 Blue 4
10 AM Thu 44 46 SW 4 7504 6705 2705 White 9
11 AM Thu 47 49 SW 4 8135 7706 3706 White 12
12 Noon Thu 50 53 SW 4 8918 8387 4387 Blue 16
1 PM Thu 51 53 SW 4 8918 8387 4387 Blue 16
2 PM Thu 51 53 SW 4 8918 8387 4387 Blue 16
3 PM Thu 52 53 SW 4 8918 8387 4387 Blue 16
4 PM Thu 50 50 SW 5 8344 7880 3880 White 13
5 PM Thu 49 49 SW 5 8135 7706 3706 White 12
6 PM Thu 46 46 SW 5 7504 6705 2705 White 9
7 PM Thu 44 44 SW 5 7082 5995 1995 White 7
8 PM Thu 42 42 SW 5 6368 5146 1146 Blue 5
9 PM Thu 42 42 SW 5 6368 5146 1146 Blue 5
10 PM Thu 41 41 SE 3 6048 4043 43 Blue 4
11 PM Thu 41 41 SE 3 6048 4043 43 Blue 4
12 Midnight Fri 40 40 SE 3 5574 4000 0 Blue 3
1 AM Fri 40 40 SE 3 5574 4000 0 Blue 3
2 AM Fri 40 40 SE 3 5574 4000 0 Blue 3
3 AM Fri 40 40 SE 3 5574 4000 0 Blue 3
4 AM Fri 40 40 S 6 5574 4000 0 Blue 3
5 AM Fri 40 40 S 6 5574 4000 0 Blue 3
6 AM Fri 40 40 S 6 5574 4000 0 Blue 3
7 AM Fri 40 40 S 6 5574 4000 0 Blue 3
8 AM Fri 41 41 S 6 6048 4043 43 Blue 4
9 AM Fri 42 42 S 6 6368 5146 1146 Blue 5
10 AM Fri 43 43 S 9 6778 5527 1527 Blue 6
11 AM Fri 44 44 S 9 7082 5995 1995 White 7
12 Noon Fri 45 45 S 9 7293 6346 2346 White 8
1 PM Fri 46 46 S 9 7504 6705 2705 White 9
2 PM Fri 46 46 S 9 7504 6705 2705 White 9
3 PM Fri 46 46 S 9 7504 6705 2705 White 9
4 PM Fri 46 46 W 7 7504 6705 2705 White 9
5 PM Fri 44 44 W 7 7082 5995 1995 White 7
6 PM Fri 41 41 W 7 6048 4043 43 Blue 4
7 PM Fri 39 39 W 7 5173 4000 0 Blue 2
8 PM Fri 37 37 W 7 2932 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 36 36 W 7 2582 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 34 34 NW 5 2582 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 33 33 NW 5 2582 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 33 33 NW 5 2582 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 32 32 NW 5 2582 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 32 32 NW 5 2582 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 31 31 NW 5 2582 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 31 31 N 5 2582 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 30 30 N 5 2582 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 30 30 N 5 2582 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 31 31 N 5 2582 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 34 34 N 5 2582 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 37 38 N 5 4126 4000 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sat 41 43 N 5 6778 5527 1527 Blue 6
11 AM Sat 43 45 N 5 7293 6346 2346 White 8
12 Noon Sat 46 49 N 5 8135 7706 3706 White 12
1 PM Sat 47 50 N 5 8344 7880 3880 White 13
2 PM Sat 47 49 N 5 8135 7706 3706 White 12
3 PM Sat 47 48 N 5 7925 7531 3531 White 11
4 PM Sat 46 46 NW 8 7504 6705 2705 White 9
5 PM Sat 44 44 NW 8 7082 5995 1995 White 7
6 PM Sat 41 41 NW 8 6048 4043 43 Blue 4
7 PM Sat 39 39 NW 8 5173 4000 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sat 38 38 NW 8 4126 4000 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sat 37 37 NW 8 2932 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 37 37 N 3 2932 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 36 36 N 3 2582 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 35 35 N 3 2582 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 35 35 N 3 2582 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 35 35 N 3 2582 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 34 34 N 3 2582 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 34 34 N 3 2582 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 34 34 N 3 2582 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 34 34 N 3 2582 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 35 35 N 3 2582 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 39 39 N 3 5173 4000 0 Blue 2
9 AM Sun 44 45 N 3 7293 6346 2346 White 8
10 AM Sun 49 51 W 3 8554 8053 4053 White 14
11 AM Sun 53 56 W 3 9414 8882 4882 Blue 19
12 Noon Sun 55 59 W 3 9700 9375 5375 Blue 22
1 PM Sun 57 60 W 3 9759 9539 5539 Blue 23
2 PM Sun 58 61 W 3 9815 9626 5626 Blue 24
3 PM Sun 59 61 W 3 9815 9626 5626 Blue 24
4 PM Sun 58 59 W 5 9700 9375 5375 Blue 22
5 PM Sun 55 55 W 5 9249 8717 4717 Blue 18
6 PM Sun 51 51 W 5 8554 8053 4053 White 14
7 PM Sun 48 48 W 5 7925 7531 3531 White 11
8 PM Sun 47 47 W 5 7715 7210 3210 White 10
9 PM Sun 46 46 W 5 7504 6705 2705 White 9
10 PM Sun 46 46 NE 2 7504 6705 2705 White 9
11 PM Sun 45 45 NE 2 7293 6346 2346 White 8
12 Midnight Mon 45 45 NE 2 7293 6346 2346 White 8
1 AM Mon 45 45 NE 2 7293 6346 2346 White 8
2 AM Mon 44 44 NE 2 7082 5995 1995 White 7
3 AM Mon 44 44 NE 2 7082 5995 1995 White 7
4 AM Mon 44 44 E 3 7082 5995 1995 White 7
5 AM Mon 43 43 E 3 6778 5527 1527 Blue 6
6 AM Mon 43 43 E 3 6778 5527 1527 Blue 6
7 AM Mon 44 44 E 3 7082 5995 1995 White 7
8 AM Mon 46 46 E 3 7504 6705 2705 White 9
9 AM Mon 50 51 E 3 8554 8053 4053 White 14
10 AM Mon 53 55 SE 5 9249 8717 4717 Blue 18
11 AM Mon 55 58 SE 5 9641 9211 5211 Blue 21
12 Noon Mon 57 60 SE 5 9759 9539 5539 Blue 23
1 PM Mon 59 62 SE 5 9868 9685 5685 Blue 25
2 PM Mon 59 62 SE 5 9868 9685 5685 Blue 25
3 PM Mon 59 61 SE 5 9815 9626 5626 Blue 24
4 PM Mon 58 59 SW 7 9700 9375 5375 Blue 22
5 PM Mon 56 56 SW 7 9414 8882 4882 Blue 19
6 PM Mon 53 53 SW 7 8918 8387 4387 Blue 16
7 PM Mon 51 51 SW 7 8554 8053 4053 White 14
8 PM Mon 49 49 SW 7 8135 7706 3706 White 12
9 PM Mon 48 48 SW 7 7925 7531 3531 White 11
10 PM Mon 47 47 SW 3 7715 7210 3210 White 10
11 PM Mon 46 46 SW 3 7504 6705 2705 White 9
12 Midnight Tue 45 45 SW 3 7293 6346 2346 White 8
1 AM Tue 45 45 SW 3 7293 6346 2346 White 8
2 AM Tue 44 44 SW 3 7082 5995 1995 White 7
3 AM Tue 44 44 SW 3 7082 5995 1995 White 7
4 AM Tue 44 44 SW 5 7082 5995 1995 White 7
5 AM Tue 43 43 SW 5 6778 5527 1527 Blue 6
6 AM Tue 43 43 SW 5 6778 5527 1527 Blue 6

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com