Detailed Predictions for: Elk Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 4000
LZ Altitude (f): 1600
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

15 OCT 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Mon 58 58 NE 14 2080 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 57 57 NE 14 2080 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 57 57 NE 14 2080 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 58 58 NE 12 2080 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 61 61 NE 12 2080 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 65 66 NE 12 4833 4000 0 Blue 4
11 AM Mon 68 71 NE 9 5036 4906 906 Blue 9
12 Noon Mon 71 75 NE 9 6444 5359 1359 Blue 13
1 PM Mon 72 76 NE 9 6654 5773 1773 Blue 14
2 PM Mon 73 77 SE 7 6863 6180 2180 Blue 15
3 PM Mon 73 76 SE 7 6654 5773 1773 Blue 14
4 PM Mon 72 74 SE 7 6226 5023 1023 Blue 12
5 PM Mon 70 70 W 7 4985 4868 868 Blue 8
6 PM Mon 66 66 W 7 4833 4000 0 Blue 4
7 PM Mon 61 61 W 7 2080 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 58 58 N 7 2080 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 56 56 N 7 2080 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 56 56 N 7 2080 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 56 56 NE 7 2080 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 56 56 NE 7 2080 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 56 56 NE 7 2080 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 55 55 NE 7 2080 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 56 56 NE 7 2080 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 56 56 NE 7 2080 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 55 55 N 7 2080 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 54 54 N 7 2080 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 54 54 N 7 2080 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 56 56 N 6 2080 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 60 60 N 6 2080 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 66 67 N 6 4871 4266 266 Blue 5
11 AM Tue 71 74 E 5 6226 5023 1023 Blue 12
12 Noon Tue 74 78 E 5 7071 6419 2419 Blue 16
1 PM Tue 76 80 E 5 7486 6834 2834 Blue 18
2 PM Tue 76 80 N 6 7486 6834 2834 Blue 18
3 PM Tue 76 79 N 6 7278 6627 2627 Blue 17
4 PM Tue 75 77 N 6 6863 6180 2180 Blue 15
5 PM Tue 72 72 NW 6 5395 4944 944 Blue 10
6 PM Tue 68 68 NW 6 4909 4793 793 Blue 6
7 PM Tue 63 63 NW 6 3704 4000 0 Blue 1
8 PM Tue 59 59 NW 6 2080 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 57 57 NW 6 2080 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 58 58 NW 6 2080 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 58 58 NE 5 2080 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 58 58 NE 5 2080 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 58 58 NE 5 2080 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 57 57 NE 5 2080 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 57 57 NE 5 2080 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 56 56 NE 5 2080 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 56 56 NE 6 2080 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 54 54 NE 6 2080 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 54 54 NE 6 2080 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 56 56 NE 6 2080 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 60 60 NE 6 2080 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 65 66 NE 6 4833 4000 0 Blue 4
11 AM Wed 70 73 E 5 5814 4982 982 Blue 11
12 Noon Wed 73 77 E 5 6863 6180 2180 Blue 15
1 PM Wed 74 78 E 5 7071 6419 2419 Blue 16
2 PM Wed 74 78 E 5 7071 6419 2419 Blue 16
3 PM Wed 74 77 E 5 6863 6180 2180 Blue 15
4 PM Wed 72 74 E 5 6226 5023 1023 Blue 12
5 PM Wed 70 70 W 6 4985 4868 868 Blue 8
6 PM Wed 66 66 W 6 4833 4000 0 Blue 4
7 PM Wed 62 62 W 6 2094 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 58 58 W 6 2080 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 57 57 W 6 2080 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 57 57 W 6 2080 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 57 57 N 5 2080 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 57 57 N 5 2080 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 57 57 N 5 2080 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 56 56 N 5 2080 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 55 55 N 5 2080 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 55 55 N 5 2080 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 55 55 NE 5 2080 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 57 57 NE 5 2080 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 60 60 NE 5 2080 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 63 63 NE 5 3704 4000 0 Blue 1
9 AM Thu 67 67 NE 5 4871 4266 266 Blue 5
10 AM Thu 70 71 NE 5 5036 4906 906 Blue 9
11 AM Thu 73 76 SE 3 6654 5773 1773 Blue 14
12 Noon Thu 75 79 SE 3 7278 6627 2627 Blue 17
1 PM Thu 76 80 SE 3 7486 6834 2834 Blue 18
2 PM Thu 76 80 SE 3 7486 6834 2834 Blue 18
3 PM Thu 76 79 SE 3 7278 6627 2627 Blue 17
4 PM Thu 75 77 SE 3 6863 6180 2180 Blue 15
5 PM Thu 73 73 W 6 5814 4982 982 Blue 11
6 PM Thu 71 71 W 6 5036 4906 906 Blue 9
7 PM Thu 69 69 W 6 4947 4831 831 Blue 7
8 PM Thu 67 67 W 6 4871 4266 266 Blue 5
9 PM Thu 64 64 W 6 4296 4000 0 Blue 2
10 PM Thu 62 62 W 6 2094 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 60 60 N 5 2080 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 59 59 N 5 2080 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 58 58 N 5 2080 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 57 57 N 5 2080 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 57 57 N 5 2080 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 58 58 N 5 2080 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 59 59 NE 3 2080 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 62 62 NE 3 2094 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 64 64 NE 3 4296 4000 0 Blue 2
8 AM Fri 67 67 NE 3 4871 4266 266 Blue 5
9 AM Fri 70 70 NE 3 4985 4868 868 Blue 8
10 AM Fri 73 74 NE 3 6226 5023 1023 Blue 12
11 AM Fri 75 78 E 1 7071 6419 2419 Blue 16
12 Noon Fri 77 80 E 1 7486 6834 2834 Blue 18
1 PM Fri 78 82 E 1 7752 7248 3248 Blue 20
2 PM Fri 78 82 E 1 7752 7248 3248 Blue 20
3 PM Fri 78 81 E 1 7633 7041 3041 Blue 19
4 PM Fri 77 79 E 1 7278 6627 2627 Blue 17
5 PM Fri 75 75 SW 3 6444 5359 1359 Blue 13
6 PM Fri 73 73 SW 3 5814 4982 982 Blue 11
7 PM Fri 71 71 SW 3 5036 4906 906 Blue 9
8 PM Fri 68 68 SW 3 4909 4793 793 Blue 6
9 PM Fri 65 65 SW 3 4795 4000 0 Blue 3
10 PM Fri 63 63 SW 3 3704 4000 0 Blue 1
11 PM Fri 61 61 N 3 2080 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 59 59 N 3 2080 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 58 58 N 3 2080 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 57 57 N 3 2080 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 57 57 N 3 2080 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 58 58 N 3 2080 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 59 59 NE 5 2080 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 61 61 NE 5 2080 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 64 64 NE 5 4296 4000 0 Blue 2
8 AM Sat 66 66 NE 5 4833 4000 0 Blue 4
9 AM Sat 69 69 NE 5 4947 4831 831 Blue 7
10 AM Sat 72 73 NE 5 5814 4982 982 Blue 11
11 AM Sat 74 77 E 3 6863 6180 2180 Blue 15
12 Noon Sat 76 79 E 3 7278 6627 2627 Blue 17
1 PM Sat 77 81 E 3 7633 7041 3041 Blue 19
2 PM Sat 77 81 E 3 7633 7041 3041 Blue 19
3 PM Sat 77 80 E 3 7486 6834 2834 Blue 18
4 PM Sat 76 78 E 3 7071 6419 2419 Blue 16
5 PM Sat 74 74 SW 3 6226 5023 1023 Blue 12
6 PM Sat 72 72 SW 3 5395 4944 944 Blue 10
7 PM Sat 70 70 SW 3 4985 4868 868 Blue 8
8 PM Sat 67 67 SW 3 4871 4266 266 Blue 5
9 PM Sat 65 65 SW 3 4795 4000 0 Blue 3
10 PM Sat 62 62 SW 3 2094 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 60 60 N 2 2080 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 58 58 N 2 2080 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 57 57 N 2 2080 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 56 56 N 2 2080 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 56 56 N 2 2080 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 56 56 N 2 2080 4000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com