Detailed Predictions for: Ed Levin
Launch Altitude (f): 2150
LZ Altitude (f): 400
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time:

 15 MAR 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
5 AM Mon 46 46 E 6 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 44 44 E 6 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 43 43 E 6 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 46 46 E 5 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 47 48 E 5 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 51 53 E 5 1627 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 53 56 E 4 2080 2150 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Mon 53 58 E 4 2766 2150 0 Blue 3
1 PM Mon 57 62 E 4 3682 3186 1036 Blue 7
2 PM Mon 60 65 S 2 4169 3672 1522 Blue 10
3 PM Mon 61 65 S 2 4169 3672 1522 Blue 10
4 PM Mon 60 62 S 2 3682 3186 1036 Blue 7
5 PM Mon 59 60 W 5 3356 2268 118 Blue 5
6 PM Mon 57 57 W 5 2276 2150 0 Blue 2
7 PM Mon 52 52 W 5 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 50 50 W 3 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 48 48 W 3 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 50 50 W 3 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 50 50 SE 5 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 50 50 SE 5 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 51 51 SE 5 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 51 51 S 5 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 51 51 S 5 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 50 50 S 5 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 50 50 S 4 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 49 49 S 4 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 48 48 S 4 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 50 50 S 4 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 51 51 S 4 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 54 56 S 4 2080 2150 0 Blue 1
11 AM Tue 55 58 SW 4 2766 2150 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Tue 55 59 SW 4 3193 2150 0 Blue 4
1 PM Tue 57 61 SW 4 3519 2752 602 Blue 6
2 PM Tue 59 63 W 6 3844 3348 1198 Blue 8
3 PM Tue 60 63 W 6 3844 3348 1198 Blue 8
4 PM Tue 60 62 W 6 3682 3186 1036 Blue 7
5 PM Tue 59 60 NW 7 3356 2268 118 Blue 5
6 PM Tue 56 56 NW 7 2080 2150 0 Blue 1
7 PM Tue 52 52 NW 7 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 50 50 NW 7 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 49 49 NW 7 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 50 50 NW 7 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 51 51 NW 4 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 51 51 NW 4 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 51 51 NW 4 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 52 52 NW 4 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 52 52 NW 4 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 50 50 NW 4 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 51 51 N 5 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 49 49 N 5 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 49 49 N 5 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 51 51 N 5 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 52 52 N 5 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 54 56 N 5 2080 2150 0 Blue 1
11 AM Wed 56 59 N 7 3193 2150 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Wed 56 60 N 7 3356 2268 118 Blue 5
1 PM Wed 59 63 N 7 3844 3348 1198 Blue 8
2 PM Wed 61 65 N 7 4169 3672 1522 Blue 10
3 PM Wed 62 65 N 7 4169 3672 1522 Blue 10
4 PM Wed 61 63 N 7 3844 3348 1198 Blue 8
5 PM Wed 60 61 NW 7 3519 2752 602 Blue 6
6 PM Wed 57 57 NW 7 2276 2150 0 Blue 2
7 PM Wed 52 52 NW 7 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 49 49 NW 7 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 48 48 NW 7 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 50 50 NW 7 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 51 51 NW 3 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 51 51 NW 3 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 51 51 NW 3 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 52 52 NW 3 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 51 51 NW 3 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 50 50 NW 3 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 51 51 N 4 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 49 49 N 4 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 48 48 N 4 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 51 51 N 4 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 52 53 N 4 1627 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 55 57 N 4 2276 2150 0 Blue 2
11 AM Thu 56 59 N 3 3193 2150 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Thu 57 62 N 3 3682 3186 1036 Blue 7
1 PM Thu 59 64 N 3 4007 3510 1360 Blue 9
2 PM Thu 62 67 N 3 4493 3995 1845 Blue 12
3 PM Thu 63 67 N 3 4493 3995 1845 Blue 12
4 PM Thu 62 64 N 3 4007 3510 1360 Blue 9
5 PM Thu 61 62 NW 8 3682 3186 1036 Blue 7
6 PM Thu 58 58 NW 8 2766 2150 0 Blue 3
7 PM Thu 53 53 NW 8 1627 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 50 50 NW 8 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 48 48 NW 8 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 50 50 NW 8 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 50 50 NW 5 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 51 51 NW 5 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 51 51 NW 5 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 52 52 NW 5 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 51 51 NW 5 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 50 50 NW 5 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 51 51 NE 7 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 49 49 NE 7 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 48 48 NE 7 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 51 51 NE 7 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 52 52 NE 7 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 54 56 NE 7 2080 2150 0 Blue 1
11 AM Fri 56 59 N 4 3193 2150 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Fri 57 61 N 4 3519 2752 602 Blue 6
1 PM Fri 59 64 N 4 4007 3510 1360 Blue 9
2 PM Fri 62 66 N 4 4331 3834 1684 Blue 11
3 PM Fri 63 66 N 4 4331 3834 1684 Blue 11
4 PM Fri 62 64 N 4 4007 3510 1360 Blue 9
5 PM Fri 61 62 NW 7 3682 3186 1036 Blue 7
6 PM Fri 58 58 NW 7 2766 2150 0 Blue 3
7 PM Fri 52 52 NW 7 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 49 49 NW 7 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 47 47 NW 7 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 49 49 NW 7 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 49 49 NW 3 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 49 49 NW 3 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 50 50 NW 3 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 50 50 NW 3 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 50 50 NW 3 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 49 49 NW 3 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 49 49 NW 3 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 48 48 NW 3 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 47 47 NW 3 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 49 49 NW 3 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 50 50 NW 3 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 52 54 NW 3 1782 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 53 56 W 3 2080 2150 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sat 54 58 W 3 2766 2150 0 Blue 3
1 PM Sat 56 61 W 3 3519 2752 602 Blue 6
2 PM Sat 58 62 W 3 3682 3186 1036 Blue 7
3 PM Sat 58 61 W 3 3519 2752 602 Blue 6
4 PM Sat 58 60 W 3 3356 2268 118 Blue 5
5 PM Sat 57 58 W 6 2766 2150 0 Blue 3
6 PM Sat 54 54 W 6 1782 2150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 49 49 W 6 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 47 47 W 6 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 46 46 W 6 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 47 47 W 6 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 47 47 NW 3 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 47 47 NW 3 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 48 48 NW 3 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 48 48 NW 3 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 48 48 NW 3 1598 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 47 47 NW 3 1598 2150 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com