Detailed Predictions for: Ed Levin
Launch Altitude (f): 2150
LZ Altitude (f): 400
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time:

 10 MAR 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
7 AM Wed 39 39 NW 13 1227 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 38 38 NW 13 1227 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 40 40 NW 13 2037 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 41 42 NW 10 3035 2150 0 Blue 2
11 AM Wed 41 43 NW 10 4640 2150 0 White 3
12 Noon Wed 41 43 NW 10 4640 2150 0 White 3
1 PM Wed 44 46 N 10 5289 4514 2364 White 6
2 PM Wed 44 46 N 10 5289 4514 2364 White 6
3 PM Wed 44 45 N 10 5076 3023 873 White 5
4 PM Wed 42 43 N 10 4640 2150 0 White 3
5 PM Wed 41 41 N 10 2645 2150 0 Blue 1
6 PM Wed 39 39 N 10 1227 2150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 38 38 NW 8 1227 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 38 38 NW 8 1227 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 38 38 NW 8 1227 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 38 38 NW 7 1227 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 38 38 NW 7 1227 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 38 38 NW 7 1227 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 38 38 NW 4 1227 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 39 39 NW 4 1227 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 40 40 NW 4 2037 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 41 41 NW 2 2645 2150 0 Blue 1
5 AM Thu 39 39 NW 2 1227 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 39 39 NW 2 1227 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 42 42 N 2 3035 2150 0 Blue 2
8 AM Thu 41 41 N 2 2645 2150 0 Blue 1
9 AM Thu 44 45 N 2 5076 3023 873 White 5
10 AM Thu 46 48 W 2 5711 5649 3499 White 8
11 AM Thu 46 49 W 2 5922 5922 3772 White 9
12 Noon Thu 46 50 W 2 6132 6132 3982 White 10
1 PM Thu 51 55 W 3 7175 7175 5025 White 15
2 PM Thu 52 55 W 3 7175 7175 5025 White 15
3 PM Thu 52 54 W 3 6967 6967 4817 White 14
4 PM Thu 49 49 NW 4 5922 5922 3772 White 9
5 PM Thu 47 47 NW 4 5500 5231 3081 White 7
6 PM Thu 45 45 NW 4 5076 3023 873 White 5
7 PM Thu 44 44 NW 4 4863 2632 482 White 4
8 PM Thu 43 43 NW 4 4640 2150 0 White 3
9 PM Thu 43 43 NW 4 4640 2150 0 White 3
10 PM Thu 44 44 S 2 4863 2632 482 White 4
11 PM Thu 43 43 S 2 4640 2150 0 White 3
12 Midnight Fri 43 43 S 2 4640 2150 0 White 3
1 AM Fri 43 43 S 2 4640 2150 0 White 3
2 AM Fri 44 44 S 2 4863 2632 482 White 4
3 AM Fri 44 44 S 2 4863 2632 482 White 4
4 AM Fri 45 45 S 4 5076 3023 873 White 5
5 AM Fri 44 44 S 4 4863 2632 482 White 4
6 AM Fri 44 44 S 4 4863 2632 482 White 4
7 AM Fri 45 45 S 4 5076 3023 873 White 5
8 AM Fri 45 45 S 4 5076 3023 873 White 5
9 AM Fri 47 47 S 4 5500 5231 3081 White 7
10 AM Fri 48 48 S 7 5711 5649 3499 White 8
11 AM Fri 48 48 S 7 5711 5649 3499 White 8
12 Noon Fri 48 48 S 7 5711 5649 3499 White 8
1 PM Fri 51 51 S 7 6342 6342 4192 White 11
2 PM Fri 51 51 S 7 6342 6342 4192 White 11
3 PM Fri 51 51 S 7 6342 6342 4192 White 11
4 PM Fri 49 49 S 10 5922 5922 3772 White 9
5 PM Fri 47 47 S 10 5500 5231 3081 White 7
6 PM Fri 45 45 S 10 5076 3023 873 White 5
7 PM Fri 44 44 S 10 4863 2632 482 White 4
8 PM Fri 43 43 S 10 4640 2150 0 White 3
9 PM Fri 43 43 S 10 4640 2150 0 White 3
10 PM Fri 43 43 NW 6 4640 2150 0 White 3
11 PM Fri 43 43 NW 6 4640 2150 0 White 3
12 Midnight Sat 43 43 NW 6 4640 2150 0 White 3
1 AM Sat 43 43 NW 6 4640 2150 0 White 3
2 AM Sat 43 43 NW 6 4640 2150 0 White 3
3 AM Sat 44 44 NW 6 4863 2632 482 White 4
4 AM Sat 44 44 NW 4 4863 2632 482 White 4
5 AM Sat 44 44 NW 4 4863 2632 482 White 4
6 AM Sat 44 44 NW 4 4863 2632 482 White 4
7 AM Sat 45 45 NW 4 5076 3023 873 White 5
8 AM Sat 44 44 NW 4 4863 2632 482 White 4
9 AM Sat 45 46 NW 4 5289 4514 2364 White 6
10 AM Sat 46 47 NW 8 5500 5231 3081 White 7
11 AM Sat 46 48 NW 8 5711 5649 3499 White 8
12 Noon Sat 46 48 NW 8 5711 5649 3499 White 8
1 PM Sat 48 50 NW 8 6132 6132 3982 White 10
2 PM Sat 49 50 NW 8 6132 6132 3982 White 10
3 PM Sat 49 50 NW 8 6132 6132 3982 White 10
4 PM Sat 46 46 NW 11 5289 4514 2364 White 6
5 PM Sat 45 45 NW 11 5076 3023 873 White 5
6 PM Sat 43 43 NW 11 4640 2150 0 White 3
7 PM Sat 42 42 NW 11 3035 2150 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sat 42 42 NW 11 3035 2150 0 Blue 2
9 PM Sat 42 42 NW 11 3035 2150 0 Blue 2
10 PM Sat 42 42 NW 9 3035 2150 0 Blue 2
11 PM Sat 42 42 NW 9 3035 2150 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sun 42 42 NW 9 3035 2150 0 Blue 2
1 AM Sun 42 42 NW 9 3035 2150 0 Blue 2
2 AM Sun 43 43 NW 9 4640 2150 0 White 3
3 AM Sun 43 43 NW 9 4640 2150 0 White 3
4 AM Sun 45 45 W 4 5076 3023 873 White 5
5 AM Sun 43 43 W 4 4640 2150 0 White 3
6 AM Sun 43 43 W 4 4640 2150 0 White 3
7 AM Sun 46 46 W 4 5289 4514 2364 White 6
8 AM Sun 45 45 W 4 5076 3023 873 White 5
9 AM Sun 48 49 W 4 5922 5922 3772 White 9
10 AM Sun 49 52 NW 5 6551 6551 4401 White 12
11 AM Sun 49 53 NW 5 6759 6759 4609 White 13
12 Noon Sun 50 54 NW 5 6967 6967 4817 White 14
1 PM Sun 55 59 NW 5 8000 8000 5850 White 19
2 PM Sun 55 58 NW 5 7794 7794 5644 White 18
3 PM Sun 55 57 NW 5 7588 7588 5438 White 17
4 PM Sun 52 53 NW 8 6759 6759 4609 White 13
5 PM Sun 50 50 NW 8 6132 6132 3982 White 10
6 PM Sun 48 48 NW 8 5711 5649 3499 White 8
7 PM Sun 47 47 NW 8 5500 5231 3081 White 7
8 PM Sun 47 47 NW 8 5500 5231 3081 White 7
9 PM Sun 46 46 NW 8 5289 4514 2364 White 6
10 PM Sun 47 47 NW 4 5500 5231 3081 White 7
11 PM Sun 46 46 NW 4 5289 4514 2364 White 6
12 Midnight Mon 46 46 NW 4 5289 4514 2364 White 6
1 AM Mon 47 47 NW 4 5500 5231 3081 White 7
2 AM Mon 47 47 NW 4 5500 5231 3081 White 7
3 AM Mon 47 47 NW 4 5500 5231 3081 White 7
4 AM Mon 48 48 W 3 5711 5649 3499 White 8
5 AM Mon 47 47 W 3 5500 5231 3081 White 7
6 AM Mon 47 47 W 3 5500 5231 3081 White 7
7 AM Mon 49 49 W 3 5922 5922 3772 White 9
8 AM Mon 49 49 W 3 5922 5922 3772 White 9
9 AM Mon 50 51 W 3 6342 6342 4192 White 11
10 AM Mon 51 53 W 4 6759 6759 4609 White 13
11 AM Mon 51 54 W 4 6967 6967 4817 White 14
12 Noon Mon 52 56 W 4 7381 7381 5231 White 16
1 PM Mon 55 59 W 4 8000 8000 5850 White 19
2 PM Mon 56 59 W 4 8000 8000 5850 White 19
3 PM Mon 55 57 W 4 7588 7588 5438 White 17
4 PM Mon 52 53 W 5 6759 6759 4609 White 13
5 PM Mon 50 50 W 5 6132 6132 3982 White 10
6 PM Mon 48 48 W 5 5711 5649 3499 White 8
7 PM Mon 47 47 W 5 5500 5231 3081 White 7
8 PM Mon 46 46 W 5 5289 4514 2364 White 6
9 PM Mon 46 46 W 5 5289 4514 2364 White 6
10 PM Mon 47 47 W 5 5500 5231 3081 White 7
11 PM Mon 46 46 W 5 5289 4514 2364 White 6
12 Midnight Tue 46 46 W 5 5289 4514 2364 White 6
1 AM Tue 46 46 W 5 5289 4514 2364 White 6
2 AM Tue 47 47 W 5 5500 5231 3081 White 7
3 AM Tue 47 47 W 5 5500 5231 3081 White 7
4 AM Tue 48 48 SW 5 5711 5649 3499 White 8
5 AM Tue 47 47 SW 5 5500 5231 3081 White 7
6 AM Tue 47 47 SW 5 5500 5231 3081 White 7

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com