Detailed Predictions for: Ed Levin
Launch Altitude (f): 2150
LZ Altitude (f): 400
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time:

 4 FEB 2012

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
4 AM Sat 45 45 E 7 1371 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 45 45 E 7 1371 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 45 45 E 7 1371 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 47 47 SE 8 1371 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 48 48 SE 8 1371 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 51 51 SE 8 2182 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 51 52 S 5 2653 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 55 57 S 5 4532 3246 1096 Blue 5
12 Noon Sat 54 56 S 5 4115 2946 796 Blue 4
1 PM Sat 53 55 SW 9 3691 2645 495 Blue 3
2 PM Sat 54 56 SW 9 4115 2946 796 Blue 4
3 PM Sat 54 55 SW 9 3691 2645 495 Blue 3
4 PM Sat 55 55 SW 6 3691 2645 495 Blue 3
5 PM Sat 52 52 SW 6 2653 2150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 49 49 SW 6 1371 2150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 49 49 E 2 1371 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 50 50 E 2 1673 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 51 51 E 2 2182 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 49 49 E 6 1371 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 49 49 E 6 1371 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 49 49 E 6 1371 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 50 50 E 7 1673 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 49 49 E 7 1371 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 47 47 E 7 1371 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 46 46 E 7 1371 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 46 46 E 7 1371 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 46 46 E 7 1371 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 48 48 E 7 1371 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 49 49 E 7 1371 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 52 52 E 7 2653 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 52 53 E 3 2958 2150 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sun 56 58 E 3 4767 3665 1515 Blue 6
12 Noon Sun 56 58 E 3 4767 3665 1515 Blue 6
1 PM Sun 54 56 E 2 4115 2946 796 Blue 4
2 PM Sun 55 56 E 2 4115 2946 796 Blue 4
3 PM Sun 56 57 E 2 4532 3246 1096 Blue 5
4 PM Sun 56 56 NE 6 4115 2946 796 Blue 4
5 PM Sun 54 54 NE 6 3260 2176 26 Blue 2
6 PM Sun 51 51 NE 6 2182 2150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 51 51 NE 6 2182 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 52 52 NE 6 2653 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 52 52 NE 6 2653 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 51 51 E 7 2182 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 51 51 E 7 2182 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 51 51 E 7 2182 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 52 52 E 7 2653 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 51 51 E 7 2182 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 49 49 E 7 1371 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 48 48 SE 7 1371 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 48 48 SE 7 1371 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 48 48 SE 7 1371 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 49 49 SE 7 1371 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 50 50 SE 7 1673 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 52 52 SE 7 2653 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 52 53 S 8 2958 2150 0 Blue 1
11 AM Mon 55 56 S 8 4115 2946 796 Blue 4
12 Noon Mon 54 55 S 8 3691 2645 495 Blue 3
1 PM Mon 53 54 S 8 3260 2176 26 Blue 2
2 PM Mon 54 55 S 8 3691 2645 495 Blue 3
3 PM Mon 54 54 S 8 3260 2176 26 Blue 2
4 PM Mon 55 55 SW 7 3691 2645 495 Blue 3
5 PM Mon 52 52 SW 7 2653 2150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 50 50 SW 7 1673 2150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 50 50 SW 7 1673 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 51 51 SW 7 2182 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 51 51 SW 7 2182 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 50 50 SE 17 1673 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 50 50 SE 17 1673 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 50 50 SE 17 1673 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 51 51 SE 17 2182 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 50 50 SE 17 1673 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 48 48 SE 17 1371 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 47 47 S 16 1371 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 47 47 S 16 1371 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 47 47 S 16 1371 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 47 47 S 16 1371 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 47 47 S 16 1371 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 48 48 S 16 1371 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 48 48 S 16 1371 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 48 48 S 16 1371 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 48 48 S 16 1371 2150 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 47 47 S 16 1371 2150 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 47 47 S 16 1371 2150 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 48 48 S 16 1371 2150 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 48 48 S 8 1371 2150 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 46 46 S 8 1371 2150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 44 44 S 8 1371 2150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 45 45 S 8 1371 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 45 45 S 8 1371 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 45 45 S 8 1371 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 45 45 SE 2 1371 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 45 45 SE 2 1371 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 45 45 SE 2 1371 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 45 45 SE 2 1371 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 45 45 SE 2 1371 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 43 43 SE 2 1371 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 42 42 NE 7 1371 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 43 43 NE 7 1371 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 42 42 NE 7 1371 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 44 44 NE 7 1371 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 46 46 NE 7 1371 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 48 48 NE 7 1371 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 48 49 N 7 1371 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 52 53 N 7 2958 2150 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Wed 51 52 N 7 2653 2150 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 50 51 N 7 2182 2150 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 51 52 N 7 2653 2150 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 51 51 N 7 2182 2150 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 52 52 NW 12 2653 2150 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 50 50 NW 12 1673 2150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 48 48 NW 12 1371 2150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 48 48 NW 12 1371 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 48 48 NW 12 1371 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 49 49 NW 12 1371 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 48 48 NW 6 1371 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 48 48 NW 6 1371 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 48 48 NW 6 1371 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 48 48 NW 6 1371 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 48 48 NW 6 1371 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 46 46 NW 6 1371 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 45 45 N 6 1371 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 45 45 N 6 1371 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 45 45 N 6 1371 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 47 47 N 6 1371 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 48 48 N 6 1371 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 51 51 N 6 2182 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 51 52 NE 6 2653 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 55 57 NE 6 4532 3246 1096 Blue 5
12 Noon Thu 54 57 NE 6 4532 3246 1096 Blue 5
1 PM Thu 53 55 NE 6 3691 2645 495 Blue 3
2 PM Thu 54 56 NE 6 4115 2946 796 Blue 4
3 PM Thu 54 55 NE 6 3691 2645 495 Blue 3
4 PM Thu 55 55 N 7 3691 2645 495 Blue 3
5 PM Thu 52 52 N 7 2653 2150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 50 50 N 7 1673 2150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 50 50 N 7 1673 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 51 51 N 7 2182 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 51 51 N 7 2182 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 50 50 E 2 1673 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 50 50 E 2 1673 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 50 50 E 2 1673 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 51 51 E 2 2182 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 50 50 E 2 1673 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 48 48 E 2 1371 2150 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com