Detailed Predictions for: Ed Levin
Launch Altitude (f): 2150
LZ Altitude (f): 400
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time:

 3 SEP 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
5 AM Fri 74 74 SW 2 1942 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 72 72 SW 2 1771 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 72 72 SW 2 1771 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 74 74 SW 5 1942 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 77 78 SW 5 2286 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 79 82 SW 5 2658 2371 221 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 78 83 W 8 2840 2456 306 Blue 1
12 Noon Fri 81 87 W 8 4059 3090 940 Blue 5
1 PM Fri 83 90 W 8 4783 4037 1887 Blue 8
2 PM Fri 82 88 W 10 4373 3408 1258 Blue 6
3 PM Fri 84 89 W 10 4632 3724 1574 Blue 7
4 PM Fri 84 88 W 10 4373 3408 1258 Blue 6
5 PM Fri 82 84 NW 9 3103 2542 392 Blue 2
6 PM Fri 81 81 NW 9 2544 2285 135 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 77 77 NW 9 2200 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 74 74 NW 6 1942 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 71 71 NW 6 1685 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 71 71 NW 6 1685 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 71 71 NW 6 1685 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 70 70 NW 6 1599 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 70 70 NW 6 1599 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 69 69 NW 6 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 68 68 NW 6 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 67 67 NW 6 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 68 68 NW 5 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 66 66 NW 5 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 66 66 NW 5 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 68 68 W 5 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 72 73 W 5 1856 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 74 77 W 5 2200 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 73 78 W 8 2286 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 77 83 W 8 2840 2456 306 Blue 1
1 PM Sat 79 86 W 8 3743 2834 684 Blue 4
2 PM Sat 78 84 W 7 3103 2542 392 Blue 2
3 PM Sat 80 85 W 7 3424 2654 504 Blue 3
4 PM Sat 80 84 W 7 3103 2542 392 Blue 2
5 PM Sat 77 79 W 7 2372 2150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 76 76 W 7 2114 2150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 72 72 W 7 1771 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 68 68 W 7 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 65 65 W 7 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 65 65 W 7 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 65 65 W 5 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 64 64 W 5 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 64 64 W 5 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 63 63 W 5 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 62 62 W 5 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 60 60 W 5 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 62 62 W 5 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 60 60 W 5 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 60 60 W 5 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 62 62 W 5 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 66 67 W 5 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 68 71 W 5 1685 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 67 72 NW 7 1771 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 71 77 NW 7 2200 2150 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 73 80 NW 7 2458 2199 49 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 72 78 NW 7 2286 2150 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 74 79 NW 7 2372 2150 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 74 78 NW 7 2286 2150 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 72 74 NW 7 1942 2150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 71 71 NW 7 1685 2150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 68 68 NW 7 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 65 65 NW 7 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 63 63 NW 7 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 63 63 NW 7 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 63 63 N 8 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 62 62 N 8 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 62 62 N 8 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 61 61 N 8 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 60 60 N 8 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 59 59 N 8 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 60 60 N 12 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 59 59 N 12 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 59 59 N 12 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 61 61 N 12 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 66 67 N 12 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 69 72 N 12 1771 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 68 73 NW 5 1856 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 72 78 NW 5 2286 2150 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 75 82 NW 5 2658 2371 221 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 74 80 NW 5 2458 2199 49 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 76 81 NW 5 2544 2285 135 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 77 81 NW 5 2544 2285 135 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 75 77 W 8 2200 2150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 74 74 W 8 1942 2150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 70 70 W 8 1599 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 67 67 W 8 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 65 65 W 8 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 65 65 W 8 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 65 65 SW 6 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 64 64 SW 6 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 64 64 SW 6 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 63 63 SW 6 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 62 62 SW 6 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 61 61 SW 6 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 62 62 SW 6 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 61 61 SW 6 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 60 60 SW 6 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 62 62 SW 6 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 64 65 SW 6 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 65 68 SW 6 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 64 69 SW 7 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 66 72 SW 7 1771 2150 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 67 74 SW 7 1942 2150 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 67 73 SW 7 1856 2150 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 68 73 SW 7 1856 2150 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 68 72 SW 7 1771 2150 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 66 68 SW 12 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 65 65 SW 12 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 62 62 SW 12 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 59 59 SW 12 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 57 57 SW 12 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 57 57 SW 12 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 57 57 SW 10 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 56 56 SW 10 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 57 57 SW 10 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 55 55 SW 10 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 54 54 SW 10 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 53 53 SW 10 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 54 54 SW 8 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 53 53 SW 8 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 53 53 SW 8 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 55 55 SW 8 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 58 59 SW 8 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 60 62 SW 8 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 59 62 W 7 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 62 66 W 7 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 64 68 W 7 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 63 67 W 7 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 65 68 W 7 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 65 67 W 7 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 63 64 W 9 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 63 63 W 9 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 60 60 W 9 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 57 57 W 9 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 56 56 W 9 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 55 55 W 9 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 56 56 W 5 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 55 55 W 5 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 55 55 W 5 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 54 54 W 5 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 54 54 W 5 1562 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 53 53 W 5 1562 2150 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com