Detailed Predictions for: Dunlap
Launch Altitude (f): 4460
LZ Altitude (f): 1950
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time:

 4 FEB 2012

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
4 AM Sat 38 38 E 5 1371 4460 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 37 37 E 5 1371 4460 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 37 37 E 5 1371 4460 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 38 38 E 10 1371 4460 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 40 40 E 10 1371 4460 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 44 45 E 10 1371 4460 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 48 49 W 2 2717 4460 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 52 54 W 2 4635 4460 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Sat 56 59 W 2 5527 4978 518 Blue 10
1 PM Sat 59 61 W 7 5882 5332 872 Blue 12
2 PM Sat 60 62 W 7 6059 5509 1049 Blue 13
3 PM Sat 61 62 W 7 6059 5509 1049 Blue 13
4 PM Sat 60 60 W 6 5705 5155 695 Blue 11
5 PM Sat 56 56 W 6 4993 4460 0 Blue 7
6 PM Sat 52 52 W 6 3793 4460 0 Blue 3
7 PM Sat 48 48 E 2 2281 4460 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 46 46 E 2 1371 4460 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 45 45 E 2 1371 4460 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 44 44 E 7 1371 4460 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 42 42 E 7 1371 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 41 41 E 7 1371 4460 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 39 39 E 2 1371 4460 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 39 39 E 2 1371 4460 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 38 38 E 2 1371 4460 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 38 38 E 2 1371 4460 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 37 37 E 2 1371 4460 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 37 37 E 2 1371 4460 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 38 38 E 3 1371 4460 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 40 40 E 3 1371 4460 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 44 44 E 3 1371 4460 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 48 49 W 3 2717 4460 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 52 54 W 3 4635 4460 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Sun 56 58 W 3 5349 4800 340 Blue 9
1 PM Sun 59 61 W 5 5882 5332 872 Blue 12
2 PM Sun 59 60 W 5 5705 5155 695 Blue 11
3 PM Sun 58 59 W 5 5527 4978 518 Blue 10
4 PM Sun 56 56 W 3 4993 4460 0 Blue 7
5 PM Sun 53 53 W 3 4219 4460 0 Blue 4
6 PM Sun 49 49 W 3 2717 4460 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 46 46 E 3 1371 4460 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 45 45 E 3 1371 4460 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 44 44 E 3 1371 4460 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 44 44 E 5 1371 4460 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 43 43 E 5 1371 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 42 42 E 5 1371 4460 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 41 41 E 6 1371 4460 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 40 40 E 6 1371 4460 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 40 40 E 6 1371 4460 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 39 39 E 3 1371 4460 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 38 38 E 3 1371 4460 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 39 39 E 3 1371 4460 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 39 39 E 3 1371 4460 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 42 42 E 3 1371 4460 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 45 45 E 3 1371 4460 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 49 50 W 3 3024 4460 0 Blue 1
11 AM Mon 53 54 W 3 4635 4460 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Mon 57 59 W 3 5527 4978 518 Blue 10
1 PM Mon 59 60 W 3 5705 5155 695 Blue 11
2 PM Mon 60 61 W 3 5882 5332 872 Blue 12
3 PM Mon 60 60 W 3 5705 5155 695 Blue 11
4 PM Mon 58 58 NE 1 5349 4800 340 Blue 9
5 PM Mon 56 56 NE 1 4993 4460 0 Blue 7
6 PM Mon 53 53 NE 1 4219 4460 0 Blue 4
7 PM Mon 50 50 NE 1 3024 4460 0 Blue 1
8 PM Mon 49 49 NE 1 2717 4460 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 49 49 NE 1 2717 4460 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 50 50 E 2 3024 4460 0 Blue 1
11 PM Mon 49 49 E 2 2717 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 49 49 E 2 2717 4460 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 48 48 E 2 2281 4460 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 48 48 E 2 2281 4460 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 47 47 E 2 1770 4460 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 47 47 E 5 1770 4460 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 46 46 E 5 1371 4460 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 45 45 E 5 1371 4460 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 45 45 E 5 1371 4460 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 46 46 E 5 1371 4460 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 48 48 E 5 2281 4460 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 50 50 SE 5 3024 4460 0 Blue 1
11 AM Tue 52 52 SE 5 3793 4460 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Tue 54 54 SE 5 4635 4460 0 Blue 5
1 PM Tue 55 55 SE 5 4814 4460 0 Blue 6
2 PM Tue 56 56 SE 5 4993 4460 0 Blue 7
3 PM Tue 56 56 SE 5 4993 4460 0 Blue 7
4 PM Tue 55 55 SE 3 4814 4460 0 Blue 6
5 PM Tue 53 53 SE 3 4219 4460 0 Blue 4
6 PM Tue 51 51 SE 3 3358 4460 0 Blue 2
7 PM Tue 49 49 SE 3 2717 4460 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 47 47 SE 3 1770 4460 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 47 47 SE 3 1770 4460 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 46 46 NE 3 1371 4460 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 46 46 NE 3 1371 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 46 46 NE 3 1371 4460 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 46 46 NE 3 1371 4460 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 45 45 NE 3 1371 4460 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 44 44 NE 3 1371 4460 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 44 44 N 2 1371 4460 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 43 43 N 2 1371 4460 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 43 43 N 2 1371 4460 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 43 43 N 2 1371 4460 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 44 44 N 2 1371 4460 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 45 45 N 2 1371 4460 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 47 48 W 5 2281 4460 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 49 50 W 5 3024 4460 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Wed 51 53 W 5 4219 4460 0 Blue 4
1 PM Wed 53 54 W 5 4635 4460 0 Blue 5
2 PM Wed 53 54 W 5 4635 4460 0 Blue 5
3 PM Wed 53 53 W 5 4219 4460 0 Blue 4
4 PM Wed 52 52 NW 8 3793 4460 0 Blue 3
5 PM Wed 50 50 NW 8 3024 4460 0 Blue 1
6 PM Wed 48 48 NW 8 2281 4460 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 46 46 NW 8 1371 4460 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 45 45 NW 8 1371 4460 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 44 44 NW 8 1371 4460 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 44 44 NE 12 1371 4460 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 43 43 NE 12 1371 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 42 42 NE 12 1371 4460 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 41 41 NE 12 1371 4460 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 40 40 NE 12 1371 4460 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 39 39 NE 12 1371 4460 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 38 38 NE 13 1371 4460 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 37 37 NE 13 1371 4460 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 37 37 NE 13 1371 4460 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 38 38 NE 13 1371 4460 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 41 41 NE 13 1371 4460 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 45 46 NE 13 1371 4460 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 49 51 W 3 3358 4460 0 Blue 2
11 AM Thu 53 55 W 3 4814 4460 0 Blue 6
12 Noon Thu 56 59 W 3 5527 4978 518 Blue 10
1 PM Thu 58 60 W 3 5705 5155 695 Blue 11
2 PM Thu 59 61 W 3 5882 5332 872 Blue 12
3 PM Thu 59 60 W 3 5705 5155 695 Blue 11
4 PM Thu 57 57 W 5 5171 4608 148 Blue 8
5 PM Thu 54 54 W 5 4635 4460 0 Blue 5
6 PM Thu 51 51 W 5 3358 4460 0 Blue 2
7 PM Thu 49 49 W 5 2717 4460 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 47 47 W 5 1770 4460 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 46 46 W 5 1371 4460 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 45 45 NE 13 1371 4460 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 44 44 NE 13 1371 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 43 43 NE 13 1371 4460 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 43 43 NE 13 1371 4460 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 42 42 NE 13 1371 4460 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 42 42 NE 13 1371 4460 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com