Detailed Predictions for: Dumps
Launch Altitude (f): 200
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time:

 4 FEB 2012

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
4 AM Sat 50 30 E 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 51 31 E 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 49 29 E 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 48 28 E 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 48 28 E 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 51 31 E 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 54 35 NE 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 57 38 NE 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 58 40 NE 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 58 40 N 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 58 39 N 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 57 38 N 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 57 37 W 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 56 36 W 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 54 34 W 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 52 32 NW 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 52 32 NW 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 52 32 NW 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 51 31 E 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 50 30 E 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 49 29 E 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 49 29 E 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 49 29 E 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 49 29 E 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 49 29 E 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 50 30 E 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 48 28 E 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 48 28 E 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 48 28 E 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 51 31 E 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 54 35 E 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 57 39 E 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 58 40 E 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 59 41 NE 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 59 40 NE 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 58 39 NE 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 57 37 NE 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 56 36 NE 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 54 34 NE 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 53 33 NE 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 52 32 NE 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 52 32 NE 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 51 31 NE 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 50 30 NE 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 49 29 NE 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 50 30 NE 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 49 29 NE 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 50 30 NE 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 50 30 NE 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 50 30 NE 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 49 29 NE 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 48 28 NE 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 48 28 NE 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 51 31 NE 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 54 35 E 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 57 38 E 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 58 39 E 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 59 40 E 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 59 40 E 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 58 38 E 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 57 37 S 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 56 36 S 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 54 34 S 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 53 33 S 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 52 32 S 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 52 32 S 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 51 31 S 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 50 30 S 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 49 29 S 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 49 29 S 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 49 29 S 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 50 30 S 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 49 29 SE 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 50 30 SE 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 49 29 SE 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 48 28 SE 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 48 28 SE 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 50 30 SE 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 53 33 S 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 56 36 S 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 56 36 S 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 57 37 S 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 57 37 S 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 56 36 S 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 55 35 S 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 54 34 S 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 53 33 S 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 51 31 S 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 51 31 S 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 51 31 S 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 50 30 N 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 49 29 N 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 48 28 N 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 48 28 N 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 48 28 N 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 48 28 N 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 48 28 NE 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 49 29 NE 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 48 28 NE 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 47 27 NE 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 47 27 NE 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 50 30 NE 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 54 35 NE 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 57 38 NE 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 57 39 NE 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 58 39 NE 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 58 39 NE 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 57 37 NE 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 56 36 NW 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 55 35 NW 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 54 34 NW 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 52 32 NW 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 52 32 NW 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 51 31 NW 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 50 30 NW 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 50 30 NW 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 49 29 NW 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 49 29 NW 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 48 28 NW 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 49 29 NW 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 49 29 NW 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 49 29 NW 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 48 28 NW 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 47 27 NW 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 48 28 NW 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 51 31 NW 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 54 35 NE 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 57 39 NE 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 58 40 NE 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 59 41 NE 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 59 41 NE 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 58 39 NE 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 57 37 NW 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 56 36 NW 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 54 34 NW 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 52 32 NW 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 52 32 NW 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 52 32 NW 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 51 31 NW 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 50 30 NW 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 49 29 NW 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 49 29 NW 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 49 29 NW 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 49 29 NW 3 0 200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com