Detailed Predictions for: Dumps
Launch Altitude (f): 200
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time:

 11 MAR 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
7 AM Thu 45 25 S 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 46 26 S 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 49 30 S 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 53 35 SW 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 55 38 SW 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 57 40 SW 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 59 42 SW 4 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 58 40 SW 4 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 58 39 SW 4 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 55 35 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 54 34 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 52 32 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 50 30 SW 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 49 29 SW 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 49 29 SW 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 49 29 SW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 48 28 SW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 48 28 SW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 48 28 S 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 48 28 S 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 47 27 S 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 48 28 SE 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 47 27 SE 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 46 26 SE 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 47 27 S 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 48 28 S 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 50 30 S 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 53 33 S 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 55 35 S 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 57 37 S 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 59 39 S 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 58 38 S 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 57 37 S 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 55 35 SW 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 53 33 SW 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 51 31 SW 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 50 30 SW 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 49 29 SW 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 48 28 SW 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 48 28 W 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 48 28 W 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 48 28 W 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 48 28 W 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 47 27 W 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 47 27 W 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 47 27 N 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 46 26 N 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 45 25 N 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 46 26 N 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 47 27 N 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 49 30 N 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 52 34 NW 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 54 37 NW 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 56 39 NW 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 57 40 NW 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 57 40 NW 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 56 38 NW 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 54 35 NW 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 52 32 NW 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 51 31 NW 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 49 29 NW 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 48 28 NW 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 47 27 NW 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 47 27 NW 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 47 27 NW 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 47 27 NW 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 47 27 NW 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 46 26 NW 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 46 26 NW 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 46 26 NW 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 46 26 NW 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 45 25 NW 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 45 25 NW 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 47 27 NW 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 50 31 NW 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 54 37 N 4 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 57 40 N 4 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 60 44 N 4 234 200 0 Blue 2
1 PM Sun 61 45 N 4 359 200 0 Blue 3
2 PM Sun 60 43 N 4 110 200 0 Blue 1
3 PM Sun 60 42 N 4 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 57 38 NW 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 55 35 NW 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 53 33 NW 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 51 31 NW 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 50 30 NW 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 49 29 NW 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 49 29 NW 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 49 29 NW 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 49 29 NW 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 49 29 NW 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 48 28 NW 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 48 28 NW 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 48 28 NE 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 48 28 NE 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 46 26 NE 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 47 27 NE 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 49 29 NE 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 51 32 NE 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 55 38 NE 4 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 58 42 NE 4 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 60 44 NE 4 234 200 0 Blue 2
1 PM Mon 62 46 NE 4 484 200 0 Blue 4
2 PM Mon 61 44 NE 4 234 200 0 Blue 2
3 PM Mon 61 43 NE 4 110 200 0 Blue 1
4 PM Mon 58 39 W 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 56 36 W 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 54 34 W 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 52 32 W 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 51 31 W 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 51 31 W 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 51 31 W 4 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 50 30 W 4 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 50 30 W 4 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 50 30 W 4 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 49 29 W 4 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 49 29 W 4 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 49 29 SW 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 49 29 SW 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 48 28 SW 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 48 28 SW 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 50 30 SW 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 52 33 SW 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 55 37 W 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 57 40 W 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 60 43 W 8 110 200 0 Blue 1
1 PM Tue 61 44 W 8 234 200 0 Blue 2
2 PM Tue 60 42 W 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 59 40 W 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 57 37 NW 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 55 35 NW 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 53 33 NW 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 52 32 NW 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 50 30 NW 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 50 30 NW 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 50 30 NW 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 49 29 NW 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 49 29 NW 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 49 29 NW 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 49 29 NW 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 48 28 NW 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 48 28 NW 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 48 28 NW 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 47 27 NW 7 0 200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com