Detailed Predictions for: Dumps
Launch Altitude (f): 200
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time:

 20 MAR 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
5 AM Sat 49 29 SE 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 49 29 SE 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 48 28 SE 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 49 29 NW 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 54 34 NW 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 58 39 NW 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 60 42 NW 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 62 45 NW 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 63 46 NW 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 64 47 W 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 64 46 W 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 62 43 W 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 60 41 W 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 58 38 W 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 56 36 W 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 53 33 W 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 52 32 W 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 52 32 W 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 51 31 W 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 50 30 W 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 49 29 W 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 49 29 W 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 49 29 W 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 49 29 W 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 49 29 NW 4 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 48 28 NW 4 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 47 27 NW 4 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 48 28 NW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 52 32 NW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 56 37 NW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 58 39 W 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 60 42 W 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 61 43 W 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 62 44 NW 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 62 44 NW 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 61 42 NW 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 59 39 NW 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 58 38 NW 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 55 35 NW 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 53 33 NW 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 52 32 NW 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 51 31 NW 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 51 31 NW 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 50 30 NW 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 50 30 NW 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 49 29 NW 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 49 29 NW 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 49 29 NW 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 49 29 NW 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 48 28 NW 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 47 27 NW 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 48 28 NW 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 53 33 NW 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 57 38 NW 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 60 42 N 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 62 45 N 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 63 46 N 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 64 47 N 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 64 46 N 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 63 44 N 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 60 41 NW 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 58 38 NW 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 56 36 NW 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 53 33 NW 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 52 32 NW 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 51 31 NW 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 51 31 NW 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 50 30 NW 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 49 29 NW 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 49 29 NW 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 49 29 NW 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 49 29 NW 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 49 29 N 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 48 28 N 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 47 27 N 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 48 28 N 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 54 35 N 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 58 40 N 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 61 44 N 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 63 47 N 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 65 50 N 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 66 50 N 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 66 50 N 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 64 46 N 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 62 43 NW 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 60 40 NW 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 57 37 NW 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 54 34 NW 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 52 32 NW 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 52 32 NW 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 51 31 NW 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 50 30 NW 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 49 29 NW 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 49 29 NW 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 48 28 NW 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 49 29 NW 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 49 29 N 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 48 28 N 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 46 26 N 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 47 27 N 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 52 32 N 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 56 38 N 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 59 42 NW 4 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 61 45 NW 4 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 62 46 NW 4 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 63 47 NW 4 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 63 46 NW 4 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 62 44 NW 4 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 60 41 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 58 38 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 56 36 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 53 33 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 52 32 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 52 32 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 51 31 W 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 50 30 W 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 50 30 W 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 49 29 W 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 49 29 W 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 49 29 W 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 49 29 W 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 48 28 W 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 47 27 W 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 48 28 W 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 53 33 W 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 57 38 W 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 59 41 W 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 61 44 W 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 63 46 W 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 64 47 W 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 64 46 W 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 62 43 W 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 60 41 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 58 38 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 56 36 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 53 33 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 52 32 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 51 31 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 51 31 NW 4 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 50 30 NW 4 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 49 29 NW 4 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 49 29 NW 4 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 49 29 NW 4 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 49 29 NW 4 0 200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com