Detailed Predictions for: Burn Launch
Launch Altitude (f): 6188
LZ Altitude (f): 3540
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time:

 18 MAY 2012

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
5 AM Fri 40 40 NE 7 5394 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 40 40 NE 7 5394 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 42 42 NE 7 5394 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 44 45 NE 7 5394 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 46 49 NE 7 7856 6188 0 Blue 3
10 AM Fri 49 53 NE 7 8726 7942 1754 Blue 7
11 AM Fri 51 56 E 2 10173 8700 2512 Blue 10
12 Noon Fri 53 58 E 2 11086 9939 3751 Blue 12
1 PM Fri 55 61 E 2 12849 10981 4793 Blue 15
2 PM Fri 57 62 W 6 13087 11611 5423 Blue 16
3 PM Fri 58 62 W 6 13087 11611 5423 Blue 16
4 PM Fri 59 62 W 6 13087 11611 5423 Blue 16
5 PM Fri 59 61 W 7 12849 10981 4793 Blue 15
6 PM Fri 58 59 W 7 11725 10144 3956 Blue 13
7 PM Fri 56 56 W 7 10173 8700 2512 Blue 10
8 PM Fri 53 53 W 5 8726 7942 1754 Blue 7
9 PM Fri 51 51 W 5 8087 7767 1579 Blue 5
10 PM Fri 48 48 W 5 7771 6188 0 Blue 2
11 PM Fri 46 46 NE 5 5394 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 44 44 NE 5 5394 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 43 43 NE 5 5394 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 42 42 W 3 5394 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 42 42 W 3 5394 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 43 43 W 3 5394 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 44 44 E 2 5394 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 44 44 E 2 5394 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 46 46 E 2 5394 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 49 50 SE 3 7949 7443 1255 Blue 4
9 AM Sat 53 55 SE 3 9963 8385 2197 Blue 9
10 AM Sat 57 61 SE 3 12849 10981 4793 Blue 15
11 AM Sat 61 66 S 5 14031 13268 7080 Blue 20
12 Noon Sat 63 68 S 5 14894 13737 7549 White 22
1 PM Sat 65 71 S 5 15517 15205 9017 White 25
2 PM Sat 66 71 SW 8 15517 15205 9017 White 25
3 PM Sat 67 71 SW 8 15517 15205 9017 White 25
4 PM Sat 67 70 SW 8 15310 14454 8266 White 24
5 PM Sat 66 68 W 9 14894 13737 7549 White 22
6 PM Sat 64 65 W 9 13797 13033 6845 Blue 19
7 PM Sat 61 61 W 9 12849 10981 4793 Blue 15
8 PM Sat 58 58 W 9 11086 9939 3751 Blue 12
9 PM Sat 55 55 W 9 9963 8385 2197 Blue 9
10 PM Sat 53 53 W 9 8726 7942 1754 Blue 7
11 PM Sat 52 52 NW 2 8408 7851 1663 Blue 6
12 Midnight Sun 51 51 NW 2 8087 7767 1579 Blue 5
1 AM Sun 50 50 NW 2 7949 7443 1255 Blue 4
2 AM Sun 49 49 NW 2 7856 6188 0 Blue 3
3 AM Sun 48 48 NW 2 7771 6188 0 Blue 2
4 AM Sun 48 48 NW 2 7771 6188 0 Blue 2
5 AM Sun 48 48 E 2 7771 6188 0 Blue 2
6 AM Sun 49 49 E 2 7856 6188 0 Blue 3
7 AM Sun 51 51 E 2 8087 7767 1579 Blue 5
8 AM Sun 55 56 E 2 10173 8700 2512 Blue 10
9 AM Sun 59 61 E 2 12849 10981 4793 Blue 15
10 AM Sun 63 67 E 2 14685 13503 7315 White 21
11 AM Sun 67 72 S 6 15723 15723 9535 White 26
12 Noon Sun 69 75 S 6 16335 16335 10147 White 29
1 PM Sun 71 78 S 6 16944 16944 10756 White 32
2 PM Sun 71 77 S 6 16741 16741 10553 White 31
3 PM Sun 72 77 S 6 16741 16741 10553 White 31
4 PM Sun 72 76 S 6 16538 16538 10350 White 30
5 PM Sun 70 72 SW 16 15723 15723 9535 White 26
6 PM Sun 68 69 SW 16 15102 13970 7782 White 23
7 PM Sun 64 64 SW 16 13561 12792 6604 Blue 18
8 PM Sun 60 60 SW 16 12335 10367 4179 Blue 14
9 PM Sun 57 57 SW 16 10414 9613 3425 Blue 11
10 PM Sun 55 55 SW 16 9963 8385 2197 Blue 9
11 PM Sun 53 53 SW 6 8726 7942 1754 Blue 7
12 Midnight Mon 51 51 SW 6 8087 7767 1579 Blue 5
1 AM Mon 50 50 SW 6 7949 7443 1255 Blue 4
2 AM Mon 49 49 SW 6 7856 6188 0 Blue 3
3 AM Mon 48 48 SW 6 7771 6188 0 Blue 2
4 AM Mon 48 48 SW 6 7771 6188 0 Blue 2
5 AM Mon 48 48 SW 5 7771 6188 0 Blue 2
6 AM Mon 48 48 SW 5 7771 6188 0 Blue 2
7 AM Mon 49 49 SW 5 7856 6188 0 Blue 3
8 AM Mon 51 52 SW 5 8408 7851 1663 Blue 6
9 AM Mon 54 56 SW 5 10173 8700 2512 Blue 10
10 AM Mon 57 60 SW 5 12335 10367 4179 Blue 14
11 AM Mon 59 62 SW 16 13087 11611 5423 Blue 16
12 Noon Mon 60 64 SW 16 13561 12792 6604 Blue 18
1 PM Mon 61 65 SW 16 13797 13033 6845 Blue 19
2 PM Mon 62 66 SW 16 14031 13268 7080 Blue 20
3 PM Mon 62 65 SW 16 13797 13033 6845 Blue 19
4 PM Mon 61 63 SW 16 13325 12213 6025 Blue 17
5 PM Mon 60 61 SW 17 12849 10981 4793 Blue 15
6 PM Mon 58 58 SW 17 11086 9939 3751 Blue 12
7 PM Mon 56 56 SW 17 10173 8700 2512 Blue 10
8 PM Mon 53 53 SW 17 8726 7942 1754 Blue 7
9 PM Mon 51 51 SW 17 8087 7767 1579 Blue 5
10 PM Mon 48 48 SW 17 7771 6188 0 Blue 2
11 PM Mon 47 47 W 6 7460 6188 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Tue 46 46 W 6 5394 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 45 45 W 6 5394 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 45 45 W 6 5394 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 44 44 W 6 5394 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 43 43 W 6 5394 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 43 43 W 6 5394 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 44 44 W 6 5394 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 46 46 W 6 5394 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 48 48 W 6 7771 6188 0 Blue 2
9 AM Tue 51 52 W 6 8408 7851 1663 Blue 6
10 AM Tue 54 56 W 6 10173 8700 2512 Blue 10
11 AM Tue 56 60 W 13 12335 10367 4179 Blue 14
12 Noon Tue 57 62 W 13 13087 11611 5423 Blue 16
1 PM Tue 58 64 W 13 13561 12792 6604 Blue 18
2 PM Tue 59 64 W 13 13561 12792 6604 Blue 18
3 PM Tue 59 63 W 13 13325 12213 6025 Blue 17
4 PM Tue 59 62 W 13 13087 11611 5423 Blue 16
5 PM Tue 58 60 W 14 12335 10367 4179 Blue 14
6 PM Tue 56 57 W 14 10414 9613 3425 Blue 11
7 PM Tue 54 54 W 14 9771 8067 1879 Blue 8
8 PM Tue 52 52 W 14 8408 7851 1663 Blue 6
9 PM Tue 50 50 W 14 7949 7443 1255 Blue 4
10 PM Tue 48 48 W 14 7771 6188 0 Blue 2
11 PM Tue 47 47 NW 5 7460 6188 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Wed 46 46 NW 5 5394 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 45 45 NW 5 5394 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 44 44 NW 5 5394 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 43 43 NW 5 5394 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 43 43 NW 5 5394 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 43 43 NW 5 5394 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 44 44 NW 5 5394 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 46 46 NW 5 5394 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 49 50 NW 5 7949 7443 1255 Blue 4
9 AM Wed 53 55 NW 5 9963 8385 2197 Blue 9
10 AM Wed 56 59 NW 5 11725 10144 3956 Blue 13
11 AM Wed 59 64 W 13 13561 12792 6604 Blue 18
12 Noon Wed 61 67 W 13 14685 13503 7315 White 21
1 PM Wed 63 70 W 13 15310 14454 8266 White 24
2 PM Wed 64 70 W 13 15310 14454 8266 White 24
3 PM Wed 64 69 W 13 15102 13970 7782 White 23
4 PM Wed 64 68 W 13 14894 13737 7549 White 22
5 PM Wed 63 65 W 13 13797 13033 6845 Blue 19
6 PM Wed 61 62 W 13 13087 11611 5423 Blue 16
7 PM Wed 59 59 W 13 11725 10144 3956 Blue 13
8 PM Wed 56 56 W 13 10173 8700 2512 Blue 10
9 PM Wed 54 54 W 13 9771 8067 1879 Blue 8
10 PM Wed 52 52 W 13 8408 7851 1663 Blue 6
11 PM Wed 51 51 NW 6 8087 7767 1579 Blue 5
12 Midnight Thu 49 49 NW 6 7856 6188 0 Blue 3
1 AM Thu 49 49 NW 6 7856 6188 0 Blue 3
2 AM Thu 48 48 NW 6 7771 6188 0 Blue 2
3 AM Thu 47 47 NW 6 7460 6188 0 Blue 1
4 AM Thu 46 46 NW 6 5394 6188 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com