Detailed Predictions for: Squaw
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.469, -111.8755, 6500
LZ Altitude (f): 3000
Sounding

Station:

 KFGZ

Date/Time:

 18 APR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Thu 56 56 SW 6 12 5744 6500 0 White 0
1 AM Thu 54 54 SW 5 10 5744 6500 0 White 0
2 AM Thu 52 52 WSW 4 6 5744 6500 0 White 0
3 AM Thu 51 51 WSW 3 6 5744 6500 0 White 0
4 AM Thu 51 51 W 3 5 5744 6500 0 White 0
5 AM Thu 50 50 NNW 3 5 5744 6500 0 White 0
6 AM Thu 51 51 WNW 3 5 5744 6500 0 White 0
7 AM Thu 53 53 WNW 3 5 5744 6500 0 White 0
8 AM Thu 56 57 WNW 3 5 5744 6500 0 White 0
9 AM Thu 61 63 ESE 4 6 5744 6500 0 White 0
10 AM Thu 63 65 SSE 5 10 5744 6500 0 White 0
11 AM Thu 66 69 S 9 13 5744 6500 0 White 0
12 Noon Thu 69 73 SSW 9 16 5744 6500 0 White 0
1 PM Thu 70 73 SSW 11 19 5744 6500 0 White 0
2 PM Thu 70 73 SSW 12 20 5744 6500 0 White 0
3 PM Thu 70 71 SSW 13 21 5744 6500 0 White 0
4 PM Thu 70 71 SSW 14 24 5744 6500 0 White 0
5 PM Thu 68 68 SSW 14 24 5744 6500 0 White 0
6 PM Thu 67 67 SW 13 21 5744 6500 0 White 0
7 PM Thu 64 64 SW 12 19 5744 6500 0 White 0
8 PM Thu 61 61 SW 11 18 5744 6500 0 White 0
9 PM Thu 60 60 SW 9 16 5744 6500 0 White 0
10 PM Thu 59 59 SW 9 14 5744 6500 0 White 0
11 PM Thu 57 57 SW 8 12 5744 6500 0 White 0
12 Midnight Fri 56 56 SW 5 10 5744 6500 0 White 0
1 AM Fri 55 55 SW 4 8 5744 6500 0 White 0
2 AM Fri 52 52 WSW 4 6 5744 6500 0 White 0
3 AM Fri 51 51 W 4 8 5744 6500 0 White 0
4 AM Fri 50 50 WNW 4 5 5744 6500 0 White 0
5 AM Fri 50 50 S 4 5 5744 6500 0 White 0
6 AM Fri 50 50 SSW 4 6 5744 6500 0 White 0
7 AM Fri 52 52 S 4 6 5744 6500 0 White 0
8 AM Fri 56 57 SE 4 8 5744 6500 0 White 0
9 AM Fri 60 63 SE 5 11 5744 6500 0 White 0
10 AM Fri 63 68 SSE 9 16 5744 6500 0 White 0
11 AM Fri 66 72 S 12 20 5744 6500 0 White 0
12 Noon Fri 68 75 S 14 24 5744 6500 0 White 0
1 PM Fri 70 77 SSW 16 27 5744 6500 0 White 0
2 PM Fri 70 76 SSW 16 28 5744 6500 0 White 0
3 PM Fri 70 74 SSW 16 28 5744 6500 0 White 0
4 PM Fri 69 71 SSW 16 27 5744 6500 0 White 0
5 PM Fri 68 69 SSW 14 25 5744 6500 0 White 0
6 PM Fri 66 66 SSW 14 24 5744 6500 0 White 0
7 PM Fri 64 64 SSW 13 21 5744 6500 0 White 0
8 PM Fri 62 62 SSW 12 19 5744 6500 0 White 0
9 PM Fri 60 60 SSW 11 17 5744 6500 0 White 0
10 PM Fri 58 58 SW 9 14 5744 6500 0 White 0
11 PM Fri 56 56 SW 8 12 5744 6500 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sat 55 55 S 6 10 5744 6500 0 White 0
1 AM Sat 54 54 ESE 6 9 5744 6500 0 White 0
2 AM Sat 53 53 E 5 8 5744 6500 0 White 0
3 AM Sat 52 52 E 4 6 5744 6500 0 White 0
4 AM Sat 51 51 E 3 5 5744 6500 0 White 0
5 AM Sat 51 51 E 3 5 5744 6500 0 White 0
6 AM Sat 53 53 ESE 3 6 5744 6500 0 White 0
7 AM Sat 56 56 SE 4 8 5744 6500 0 White 0
8 AM Sat 59 60 SSE 5 9 5744 6500 0 White 0
9 AM Sat 62 65 S 6 10 5744 6500 0 White 0
10 AM Sat 65 70 SSW 6 11 5744 6500 0 White 0
11 AM Sat 67 74 SSW 8 13 5744 6500 0 White 0
12 Noon Sat 69 77 SSW 9 16 5744 6500 0 White 0
1 PM Sat 70 77 SW 11 18 5744 6500 0 White 0
2 PM Sat 71 77 SW 12 20 5744 6500 0 White 0
3 PM Sat 72 76 SW 14 23 5744 6500 0 White 0
4 PM Sat 72 75 SW 16 25 5744 6500 0 White 0
5 PM Sat 71 72 SW 17 26 5744 6500 0 White 0
6 PM Sat 69 69 SW 17 25 5744 6500 0 White 0
7 PM Sat 66 66 SSW 14 23 5744 6500 0 White 0
8 PM Sat 63 63 SSW 13 20 5744 6500 0 White 0
9 PM Sat 61 61 SSW 12 18 5744 6500 0 White 0
10 PM Sat 59 59 S 10 14 5744 6500 0 White 0
11 PM Sat 58 58 S 9 12 5744 6500 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sun 57 57 SE 8 11 5744 6500 0 White 0
1 AM Sun 56 56 ENE 6 10 5744 6500 0 White 0
2 AM Sun 55 55 NNE 6 10 5744 6500 0 White 0
3 AM Sun 54 54 NNE 5 9 5744 6500 0 White 0
4 AM Sun 53 53 NNE 5 8 5744 6500 0 White 0
5 AM Sun 53 53 NNE 5 8 5744 6500 0 White 0
6 AM Sun 55 55 NNE 5 8 5744 6500 0 White 0
7 AM Sun 58 58 NNE 5 8 5744 6500 0 White 0
8 AM Sun 61 62 NNE 6 9 5744 6500 0 White 0
9 AM Sun 65 68 NNW 8 10 5744 6500 0 White 0
10 AM Sun 68 73 WSW 9 12 5744 6500 0 White 0
11 AM Sun 71 78 SSW 10 13 5744 6500 0 White 0
12 Noon Sun 73 80 SSW 11 14 5744 6500 0 White 0
1 PM Sun 74 81 SW 12 17 5744 6500 0 White 0
2 PM Sun 75 81 SW 13 18 5744 6500 0 White 0
3 PM Sun 75 80 SW 13 19 5744 6500 0 White 0
4 PM Sun 74 77 SW 13 19 5744 6500 0 White 0
5 PM Sun 73 74 SW 13 19 5744 6500 0 White 0
6 PM Sun 71 71 SW 13 20 5744 6500 0 White 0
7 PM Sun 69 69 SSW 13 20 5744 6500 0 White 0
8 PM Sun 66 66 SSW 13 20 5744 6500 0 White 0
9 PM Sun 64 64 SSW 12 18 5744 6500 0 White 0
10 PM Sun 62 62 SSW 10 16 5744 6500 0 White 0
11 PM Sun 60 60 SSW 9 13 5744 6500 0 White 0
12 Midnight Mon 59 59 SSE 8 12 5744 6500 0 White 0
1 AM Mon 58 58 ENE 6 11 5744 6500 0 White 0
2 AM Mon 57 57 NNE 6 10 5744 6500 0 White 0
3 AM Mon 55 55 NNE 5 9 5744 6500 0 White 0
4 AM Mon 53 53 NNE 5 9 5744 6500 0 White 0
5 AM Mon 53 53 NNE 5 9 5744 6500 0 White 0
6 AM Mon 55 55 NE 5 8 5744 6500 0 White 0
7 AM Mon 57 57 NE 5 8 5744 6500 0 White 0
8 AM Mon 61 62 ENE 6 9 5744 6500 0 White 0
9 AM Mon 65 68 E 9 11 5744 6500 0 White 0
10 AM Mon 69 74 S 11 14 5744 6500 0 White 0
11 AM Mon 72 79 SSW 13 18 5744 6500 0 White 0
12 Noon Mon 74 82 SSW 16 20 5744 6500 0 White 0
1 PM Mon 76 83 SSW 17 24 5744 6500 0 White 0
2 PM Mon 76 82 SSW 18 25 5744 6500 0 White 0
3 PM Mon 76 80 SSW 19 26 5744 6500 0 White 0
4 PM Mon 75 78 SSW 19 26 5744 6500 0 White 0
5 PM Mon 73 74 SSW 18 25 5744 6500 0 White 0
6 PM Mon 71 71 SSW 17 24 5744 6500 0 White 0
7 PM Mon 68 68 SSW 14 23 5744 6500 0 White 0
8 PM Mon 65 65 SSW 13 20 5744 6500 0 White 0
9 PM Mon 63 63 SSW 12 19 5744 6500 0 White 0
10 PM Mon 61 61 SSW 11 17 5744 6500 0 White 0
11 PM Mon 59 59 SSW 10 16 5744 6500 0 White 0
12 Midnight Tue 57 57 SSW 10 14 5744 6500 0 White 0
1 AM Tue 56 56 S 9 14 5744 6500 0 White 0
2 AM Tue 55 55 S 9 13 5744 6500 0 White 0
3 AM Tue 53 53 S 8 12 5744 6500 0 White 0
4 AM Tue 52 52 SSE 8 11 5744 6500 0 White 0
5 AM Tue 52 52 SSE 8 11 5744 6500 0 White 0
6 AM Tue 53 53 SSE 9 11 5744 6500 0 White 0
7 AM Tue 56 56 S 10 12 5744 6500 0 White 0
8 AM Tue 59 60 S 11 14 5744 6500 0 White 0
9 AM Tue 62 65 S 13 18 5744 6500 0 White 0
10 AM Tue 65 70 S 16 21 5744 6500 0 White 0
11 AM Tue 67 74 S 18 25 5744 6500 0 White 0
12 Noon Tue 69 77 S 19 27 5744 6500 0 White 0
1 PM Tue 70 77 SSW 20 28 5744 6500 0 White 0
2 PM Tue 71 77 SSW 21 29 5744 6500 0 White 0
3 PM Tue 71 76 SSW 23 29 5744 6500 0 White 0
4 PM Tue 71 74 SSW 23 29 5744 6500 0 White 0
5 PM Tue 70 71 SSW 21 28 5744 6500 0 White 0
6 PM Tue 68 68 SSW 20 27 5744 6500 0 White 0
7 PM Tue 65 65 SSW 18 25 5744 6500 0 White 0
8 PM Tue 62 62 SSW 16 24 5744 6500 0 White 0
9 PM Tue 60 60 SSW 14 23 5744 6500 0 White 0
10 PM Tue 58 58 S 14 23 5744 6500 0 White 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]