Detailed Predictions for: Mormon Lake Ridge
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.9617, -111.43778, 7292
LZ Altitude (f): 7110
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

28 MAR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Thu 35 35 SW 7 16 7658 7605 313 Blue 15
1 AM Thu 34 34 SW 7 15 7638 7588 296 Blue 14
2 AM Thu 34 34 SW 6 13 7638 7588 296 Blue 14
3 AM Thu 34 34 SW 6 13 7638 7588 296 Blue 14
4 AM Thu 34 34 SW 6 12 7638 7588 296 Blue 14
5 AM Thu 34 34 SW 6 13 7638 7588 296 Blue 14
6 AM Thu 33 33 WNW 6 14 7622 7572 280 Blue 13
7 AM Thu 34 34 SW 6 13 7638 7588 296 Blue 14
8 AM Thu 37 38 SW 6 13 7827 7658 366 Blue 18
9 AM Thu 41 43 SW 11 16 9205 8405 1113 Blue 23
10 AM Thu 44 48 SW 15 19 10189 9633 2341 Blue 28
11 AM Thu 47 53 SW 17 20 11255 10502 3210 Blue 33
12 Noon Thu 48 55 SW 19 21 11744 10991 3699 Blue 35
1 PM Thu 50 56 SW 20 23 11994 11224 3932 Blue 36
2 PM Thu 51 56 SW 21 24 11994 11224 3932 Blue 36
3 PM Thu 51 55 SW 21 25 11744 10991 3699 Blue 35
4 PM Thu 51 53 SW 22 26 11255 10502 3210 Blue 33
5 PM Thu 50 50 SW 23 27 10547 10062 2770 Blue 30
6 PM Thu 48 48 SW 23 31 10189 9633 2341 Blue 28
7 PM Thu 45 45 SW 22 35 9650 8969 1677 Blue 25
8 PM Thu 43 43 SW 21 38 9205 8405 1113 Blue 23
9 PM Thu 42 42 SW 21 40 8981 8114 822 Blue 22
10 PM Thu 41 41 SW 22 41 8757 7821 529 Blue 21
11 PM Thu 41 41 SW 23 43 8757 7821 529 Blue 21
12 Midnight Fri 41 41 SW 24 44 8757 7821 529 Blue 21
1 AM Fri 40 40 SW 23 42 8416 7700 408 Blue 20
2 AM Fri 40 40 SW 21 40 8416 7700 408 Blue 20
3 AM Fri 39 39 SW 19 37 8122 7679 387 Blue 19
4 AM Fri 39 39 SW 18 35 8122 7679 387 Blue 19
5 AM Fri 38 38 SW 18 34 7827 7658 366 Blue 18
6 AM Fri 38 38 SW 18 35 7827 7658 366 Blue 18
7 AM Fri 38 38 SW 20 37 7827 7658 366 Blue 18
8 AM Fri 40 41 SW 22 37 8757 7821 529 Blue 21
9 AM Fri 42 44 SW 25 34 9428 8746 1454 Blue 24
10 AM Fri 44 48 SW 27 31 10189 9633 2341 Blue 28
11 AM Fri 46 52 SW 29 34 11020 10267 2975 Blue 32
12 Noon Fri 48 55 SW 30 35 11744 10991 3699 Blue 35
1 PM Fri 49 55 SW 31 36 11744 10991 3699 Blue 35
2 PM Fri 50 55 SW 32 37 11744 10991 3699 Blue 35
3 PM Fri 50 54 SW 32 37 11499 10757 3465 Blue 34
4 PM Fri 50 52 SW 32 36 11020 10267 2975 Blue 32
5 PM Fri 49 50 SW 31 35 10547 10062 2770 Blue 30
6 PM Fri 47 47 SW 30 36 10077 9412 2120 Blue 27
7 PM Fri 44 44 SW 28 41 9428 8746 1454 Blue 24
8 PM Fri 42 42 SW 26 45 8981 8114 822 Blue 22
9 PM Fri 42 42 SW 25 45 8981 8114 822 Blue 22
10 PM Fri 41 41 SW 25 45 8757 7821 529 Blue 21
11 PM Fri 41 41 SW 22 40 8757 7821 529 Blue 21
12 Midnight Sat 41 41 SW 21 38 8757 7821 529 Blue 21
1 AM Sat 41 41 SW 22 38 8757 7821 529 Blue 21
2 AM Sat 40 40 SW 23 39 8416 7700 408 Blue 20
3 AM Sat 40 40 SW 24 39 8416 7700 408 Blue 20
4 AM Sat 39 39 SW 23 36 8122 7679 387 Blue 19
5 AM Sat 38 38 SW 22 34 7827 7658 366 Blue 18
6 AM Sat 38 38 SW 21 35 7827 7658 366 Blue 18
7 AM Sat 38 38 SW 22 35 7827 7658 366 Blue 18
8 AM Sat 39 40 SW 23 36 8416 7700 408 Blue 20
9 AM Sat 42 44 SSW 28 36 9428 8746 1454 Blue 24
10 AM Sat 44 48 SSW 31 35 10189 9633 2341 Blue 28
11 AM Sat 46 52 SSW 31 36 11020 10267 2975 Blue 32
12 Noon Sat 48 54 SSW 32 37 11499 10757 3465 Blue 34
1 PM Sat 49 55 SSW 32 37 11744 10991 3699 Blue 35
2 PM Sat 49 54 SSW 32 37 11499 10757 3465 Blue 34
3 PM Sat 49 53 SSW 30 35 11255 10502 3210 Blue 33
4 PM Sat 49 51 SSW 29 33 10784 10180 2888 Blue 31
5 PM Sat 48 48 SSW 28 32 10189 9633 2341 Blue 28
6 PM Sat 47 47 SSW 26 31 10077 9412 2120 Blue 27
7 PM Sat 45 45 SSW 24 35 9650 8969 1677 Blue 25
8 PM Sat 43 43 SSW 22 37 9205 8405 1113 Blue 23
9 PM Sat 42 42 SSW 20 32 8981 8114 822 Blue 22
10 PM Sat 40 40 SSW 19 31 8416 7700 408 Blue 20
11 PM Sat 39 39 SSW 19 31 8122 7679 387 Blue 19

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]