Detailed Predictions for: Mingus
Launch Altitude (f): 7800
LZ Altitude (f): 3550
Sounding

Station:

 KFGZ

Date/Time:

 11 MAR 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
8 AM Thu 23 23 N 5 9379 8746 946 Blue 3
9 AM Thu 32 33 N 5 11687 11134 3334 White 13
10 AM Thu 37 40 N 5 13188 13188 5388 White 20
11 AM Thu 39 43 N 5 13823 13823 6023 White 23
12 Noon Thu 39 44 N 5 14035 14035 6235 White 24
1 PM Thu 38 43 N 5 13823 13823 6023 White 23
2 PM Thu 37 41 NW 6 13400 13400 5600 White 21
3 PM Thu 37 40 NW 6 13188 13188 5388 White 20
4 PM Thu 36 38 NW 6 12762 12762 4962 White 18
5 PM Thu 34 34 NW 7 11904 11544 3744 White 14
6 PM Thu 30 30 NW 7 11032 10200 2400 White 10
7 PM Thu 24 24 NW 7 9710 8931 1131 White 4
8 PM Thu 23 23 W 6 9379 8746 946 Blue 3
9 PM Thu 22 22 W 6 9125 8382 582 Blue 2
10 PM Thu 22 22 W 6 9125 8382 582 Blue 2
11 PM Thu 24 24 SW 4 9710 8931 1131 White 4
12 Midnight Fri 23 23 SW 4 9379 8746 946 Blue 3
1 AM Fri 23 23 SW 4 9379 8746 946 Blue 3
2 AM Fri 22 22 S 4 9125 8382 582 Blue 2
3 AM Fri 22 22 S 4 9125 8382 582 Blue 2
4 AM Fri 21 21 S 4 8939 7994 194 Blue 1
5 AM Fri 21 21 S 2 8939 7994 194 Blue 1
6 AM Fri 20 20 S 2 8754 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 21 21 S 2 8939 7994 194 Blue 1
8 AM Fri 27 27 E 2 10213 9763 1963 Blue 7
9 AM Fri 39 40 E 2 13188 13188 5388 White 20
10 AM Fri 46 49 E 2 15066 15066 7266 White 29
11 AM Fri 48 52 NE 3 15679 15679 7879 White 32
12 Noon Fri 48 53 NE 3 15884 15884 8084 White 33
1 PM Fri 46 51 NE 3 15476 15476 7676 White 31
2 PM Fri 45 49 E 4 15066 15066 7266 White 29
3 PM Fri 46 49 E 4 15066 15066 7266 White 29
4 PM Fri 44 46 E 4 14450 14450 6650 White 26
5 PM Fri 41 41 S 4 13400 13400 5600 White 21
6 PM Fri 37 37 S 4 12549 12241 4441 White 17
7 PM Fri 30 30 S 4 11032 10200 2400 White 10
8 PM Fri 28 28 SW 5 10352 9922 2122 Blue 8
9 PM Fri 27 27 SW 5 10213 9763 1963 Blue 7
10 PM Fri 27 27 SW 5 10213 9763 1963 Blue 7
11 PM Fri 29 29 SW 5 10492 10061 2261 Blue 9
12 Midnight Sat 28 28 SW 5 10352 9922 2122 Blue 8
1 AM Sat 28 28 SW 5 10352 9922 2122 Blue 8
2 AM Sat 26 26 SW 4 10073 9354 1554 Blue 6
3 AM Sat 26 26 SW 4 10073 9354 1554 Blue 6
4 AM Sat 25 25 SW 4 9933 9115 1315 Blue 5
5 AM Sat 25 25 SW 5 9933 9115 1315 Blue 5
6 AM Sat 24 24 SW 5 9710 8931 1131 White 4
7 AM Sat 25 25 SW 5 9933 9115 1315 Blue 5
8 AM Sat 29 29 SW 6 10492 10061 2261 Blue 9
9 AM Sat 39 40 SW 6 13188 13188 5388 White 20
10 AM Sat 44 46 SW 6 14450 14450 6650 White 26
11 AM Sat 46 49 S 8 15066 15066 7266 White 29
12 Noon Sat 46 49 S 8 15066 15066 7266 White 29
1 PM Sat 45 48 S 8 14862 14862 7062 White 28
2 PM Sat 44 47 SW 11 14656 14656 6856 White 27
3 PM Sat 44 46 SW 11 14450 14450 6650 White 26
4 PM Sat 43 44 SW 11 14035 14035 6235 White 24
5 PM Sat 41 41 SW 15 13400 13400 5600 White 21
6 PM Sat 37 37 SW 15 12549 12241 4441 White 17
7 PM Sat 31 31 SW 15 11252 10339 2539 White 11
8 PM Sat 30 30 W 13 11032 10200 2400 White 10
9 PM Sat 29 29 W 13 10492 10061 2261 Blue 9
10 PM Sat 29 29 W 13 10492 10061 2261 Blue 9
11 PM Sat 31 31 W 11 11252 10339 2539 White 11
12 Midnight Sun 30 30 W 11 11032 10200 2400 White 10
1 AM Sun 30 30 W 11 11032 10200 2400 White 10
2 AM Sun 29 29 NW 10 10492 10061 2261 Blue 9
3 AM Sun 29 29 NW 10 10492 10061 2261 Blue 9
4 AM Sun 28 28 NW 10 10352 9922 2122 Blue 8
5 AM Sun 28 28 N 10 10352 9922 2122 Blue 8
6 AM Sun 27 27 N 10 10213 9763 1963 Blue 7
7 AM Sun 27 27 N 10 10213 9763 1963 Blue 7
8 AM Sun 30 30 NW 10 11032 10200 2400 White 10
9 AM Sun 34 35 NW 10 12120 11777 3977 White 15
10 AM Sun 37 38 NW 10 12762 12762 4962 White 18
11 AM Sun 38 40 N 11 13188 13188 5388 White 20
12 Noon Sun 38 40 N 11 13188 13188 5388 White 20
1 PM Sun 37 39 N 11 12976 12976 5176 White 19
2 PM Sun 37 39 N 13 12976 12976 5176 White 19
3 PM Sun 37 38 N 13 12762 12762 4962 White 18
4 PM Sun 37 38 N 13 12762 12762 4962 White 18
5 PM Sun 36 36 N 14 12336 12009 4209 White 16
6 PM Sun 34 34 N 14 11904 11544 3744 White 14
7 PM Sun 31 31 N 14 11252 10339 2539 White 11
8 PM Sun 31 31 NE 15 11252 10339 2539 White 11
9 PM Sun 30 30 NE 15 11032 10200 2400 White 10
10 PM Sun 30 30 NE 15 11032 10200 2400 White 10
11 PM Sun 31 31 NE 17 11252 10339 2539 White 11
12 Midnight Mon 31 31 NE 17 11252 10339 2539 White 11
1 AM Mon 31 31 NE 17 11252 10339 2539 White 11
2 AM Mon 30 30 NE 18 11032 10200 2400 White 10
3 AM Mon 30 30 NE 18 11032 10200 2400 White 10
4 AM Mon 29 29 NE 18 10492 10061 2261 Blue 9
5 AM Mon 29 29 E 18 10492 10061 2261 Blue 9
6 AM Mon 29 29 E 18 10492 10061 2261 Blue 9
7 AM Mon 29 29 E 18 10492 10061 2261 Blue 9
8 AM Mon 34 34 E 17 11904 11544 3744 White 14
9 AM Mon 43 44 E 17 14035 14035 6235 White 24
10 AM Mon 48 51 E 17 15476 15476 7676 White 31
11 AM Mon 50 54 NE 16 16087 16087 8287 White 34
12 Noon Mon 50 55 NE 16 16290 16290 8490 White 35
1 PM Mon 48 53 NE 16 15884 15884 8084 White 33
2 PM Mon 47 51 NE 14 15476 15476 7676 White 31
3 PM Mon 48 51 NE 14 15476 15476 7676 White 31
4 PM Mon 47 48 NE 14 14862 14862 7062 White 28
5 PM Mon 44 44 NE 12 14035 14035 6235 White 24
6 PM Mon 40 40 NE 12 13188 13188 5388 White 20
7 PM Mon 34 34 NE 12 11904 11544 3744 White 14
8 PM Mon 33 33 NE 11 11687 11134 3334 White 13
9 PM Mon 32 32 NE 11 11469 10478 2678 White 12
10 PM Mon 32 32 NE 11 11469 10478 2678 White 12
11 PM Mon 34 34 E 9 11904 11544 3744 White 14
12 Midnight Tue 33 33 E 9 11687 11134 3334 White 13
1 AM Tue 33 33 E 9 11687 11134 3334 White 13
2 AM Tue 31 31 E 8 11252 10339 2539 White 11
3 AM Tue 31 31 E 8 11252 10339 2539 White 11
4 AM Tue 30 30 E 8 11032 10200 2400 White 10
5 AM Tue 30 30 E 7 11032 10200 2400 White 10
6 AM Tue 29 29 E 7 10492 10061 2261 Blue 9
7 AM Tue 30 30 E 7 11032 10200 2400 White 10
8 AM Tue 34 34 E 7 11904 11544 3744 White 14
9 AM Tue 44 45 E 7 14245 14245 6445 White 25
10 AM Tue 49 52 E 7 15679 15679 7879 White 32
11 AM Tue 51 55 E 9 16290 16290 8490 White 35
12 Noon Tue 51 56 E 9 16492 16492 8692 White 36
1 PM Tue 49 54 E 9 16087 16087 8287 White 34
2 PM Tue 48 52 NE 10 15679 15679 7879 White 32
3 PM Tue 49 52 NE 10 15679 15679 7879 White 32
4 PM Tue 48 49 NE 10 15066 15066 7266 White 29
5 PM Tue 45 45 NE 11 14245 14245 6445 White 25
6 PM Tue 40 40 NE 11 13188 13188 5388 White 20
7 PM Tue 33 33 NE 11 11687 11134 3334 White 13
8 PM Tue 32 32 NE 10 11469 10478 2678 White 12
9 PM Tue 31 31 NE 10 11252 10339 2539 White 11
10 PM Tue 31 31 NE 10 11252 10339 2539 White 11
11 PM Tue 33 33 E 9 11687 11134 3334 White 13
12 Midnight Wed 32 32 E 9 11469 10478 2678 White 12
1 AM Wed 32 32 E 9 11469 10478 2678 White 12
2 AM Wed 30 30 SE 8 11032 10200 2400 White 10
3 AM Wed 30 30 SE 8 11032 10200 2400 White 10
4 AM Wed 29 29 SE 8 10492 10061 2261 Blue 9
5 AM Wed 29 29 SE 6 10492 10061 2261 Blue 9
6 AM Wed 28 28 SE 6 10352 9922 2122 Blue 8
7 AM Wed 29 29 SE 6 10492 10061 2261 Blue 9

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com