Detailed Predictions for: Mingus
Launch Altitude (f): 7800
LZ Altitude (f): 3550
Sounding

Station:

 KFGZ

Date/Time:

 3 SEP 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
6 AM Fri 54 54 S 6 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 49 49 S 6 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 51 52 S 6 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 61 63 SE 5 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 67 71 SE 5 7888 7800 0 Blue 1
11 AM Fri 70 75 SE 5 17456 8072 272 Blue 5
12 Noon Fri 72 77 S 10 17790 17233 9433 Blue 7
1 PM Fri 75 80 S 10 18615 17716 9916 Blue 10
2 PM Fri 77 81 S 10 19509 17937 10137 Blue 11
3 PM Fri 77 80 S 10 18615 17716 9916 Blue 10
4 PM Fri 78 80 S 10 18615 17716 9916 Blue 10
5 PM Fri 77 78 S 10 18016 17415 9615 Blue 8
6 PM Fri 75 75 S 10 17456 8072 272 Blue 5
7 PM Fri 72 72 S 10 8074 7800 0 Blue 2
8 PM Fri 65 65 S 10 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 61 61 S 5 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 60 60 S 5 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 59 59 S 5 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 60 60 S 2 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 59 59 S 2 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 58 58 S 2 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 57 57 SW 3 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 56 56 SW 3 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 54 54 SW 3 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 55 55 SW 5 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 50 50 SW 5 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 52 53 SW 5 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 61 63 SW 5 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 67 70 SW 5 7701 7800 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 70 75 SW 5 17456 8072 272 Blue 5
12 Noon Sat 71 76 SW 8 17602 9674 1874 Blue 6
1 PM Sat 74 79 SW 8 18317 17546 9746 Blue 9
2 PM Sat 77 82 SW 8 20324 18211 10411 Blue 12
3 PM Sat 77 80 SW 12 18615 17716 9916 Blue 10
4 PM Sat 77 79 SW 12 18317 17546 9746 Blue 9
5 PM Sat 76 77 SW 12 17790 17233 9433 Blue 7
6 PM Sat 75 75 SW 8 17456 8072 272 Blue 5
7 PM Sat 73 73 SW 8 9772 7800 0 Blue 3
8 PM Sat 67 67 SW 8 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 64 64 SW 6 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 63 63 SW 6 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 62 62 SW 6 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 63 63 SW 5 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 62 62 SW 5 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 62 62 SW 5 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 61 61 SW 5 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 60 60 SW 5 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 58 58 SW 5 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 59 59 SW 6 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 55 55 SW 6 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 57 58 SW 6 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 63 65 SW 12 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 68 71 SW 12 7888 7800 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sun 70 75 SW 12 17456 8072 272 Blue 5
12 Noon Sun 71 78 SW 17 18016 17415 9615 Blue 8
1 PM Sun 73 80 SW 17 18615 17716 9916 Blue 10
2 PM Sun 75 81 SW 17 19509 17937 10137 Blue 11
3 PM Sun 75 79 SW 20 18317 17546 9746 Blue 9
4 PM Sun 75 78 SW 20 18016 17415 9615 Blue 8
5 PM Sun 74 75 SW 20 17456 8072 272 Blue 5
6 PM Sun 72 72 SW 20 8074 7800 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sun 70 70 SW 20 7701 7800 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 63 63 SW 20 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 60 60 SW 17 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 58 58 SW 17 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 57 57 SW 17 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 58 58 SW 14 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 57 57 SW 14 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 57 57 SW 14 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 56 56 SW 13 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 55 55 SW 13 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 53 53 SW 13 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 53 53 SW 8 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 49 49 SW 8 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 51 52 SW 8 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 58 60 SW 14 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 64 68 SW 14 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 66 71 SW 14 7888 7800 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Mon 67 74 SW 12 17328 7886 86 Blue 4
1 PM Mon 70 77 SW 12 17790 17233 9433 Blue 7
2 PM Mon 72 78 SW 12 18016 17415 9615 Blue 8
3 PM Mon 72 76 S 12 17602 9674 1874 Blue 6
4 PM Mon 72 75 S 12 17456 8072 272 Blue 5
5 PM Mon 71 72 S 12 8074 7800 0 Blue 2
6 PM Mon 69 69 S 12 7550 7800 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 67 67 S 12 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 60 60 S 12 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 55 55 S 7 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 54 54 S 7 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 53 53 S 7 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 54 54 S 5 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 53 53 S 5 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 52 52 S 5 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 51 51 S 6 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 50 50 S 6 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 48 48 S 6 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 49 49 S 7 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 44 44 S 7 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 46 47 S 7 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 55 57 S 9 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 61 65 S 9 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 64 69 S 9 7550 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 65 71 S 13 7888 7800 0 Blue 1
1 PM Tue 68 74 S 13 17328 7886 86 Blue 4
2 PM Tue 71 76 S 13 17602 9674 1874 Blue 6
3 PM Tue 71 75 S 14 17456 8072 272 Blue 5
4 PM Tue 71 73 S 14 9772 7800 0 Blue 3
5 PM Tue 70 71 S 14 7888 7800 0 Blue 1
6 PM Tue 69 69 S 14 7550 7800 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 66 66 S 14 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 60 60 S 14 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 56 56 S 9 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 55 55 S 9 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 54 54 S 9 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 55 55 S 8 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 54 54 S 8 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 53 53 S 8 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 52 52 S 7 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 51 51 S 7 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 49 49 S 7 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 50 50 S 7 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 45 45 S 7 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 47 48 S 7 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 55 57 S 12 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 60 63 S 12 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 62 67 S 12 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 63 69 S 15 7550 7800 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 66 72 S 15 8074 7800 0 Blue 2
2 PM Wed 68 73 S 15 9772 7800 0 Blue 3
3 PM Wed 68 72 S 16 8074 7800 0 Blue 2
4 PM Wed 68 70 S 16 7701 7800 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 67 68 S 16 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 66 66 S 16 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 64 64 S 16 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 58 58 S 16 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 55 55 S 12 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 54 54 S 12 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 53 53 S 12 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 54 54 S 7 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 53 53 S 7 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 53 53 S 7 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 52 52 S 7 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 51 51 S 7 7500 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 49 49 S 7 7500 7800 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com