Detailed Predictions for: Mingus
Launch Altitude (f): 7800
LZ Altitude (f): 3550
Sounding

Station:

 KFGZ

Date/Time:

 4 FEB 2012

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
5 AM Sat 18 18 SE 7 7447 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 17 17 SE 7 7447 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 17 17 SE 7 7447 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 19 19 E 8 7447 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 29 29 E 8 9283 8248 448 White 1
10 AM Sat 37 38 E 8 11289 10488 2688 White 10
11 AM Sat 38 40 E 9 11724 11408 3608 White 12
12 Noon Sat 39 41 E 9 11942 11853 4053 White 13
1 PM Sat 40 42 E 9 12158 12158 4358 White 14
2 PM Sat 40 42 E 10 12158 12158 4358 White 14
3 PM Sat 40 41 E 10 11942 11853 4053 White 13
4 PM Sat 39 39 E 10 11507 10954 3154 White 11
5 PM Sat 36 36 E 12 10851 9992 2192 White 8
6 PM Sat 31 31 E 12 9727 9170 1370 White 3
7 PM Sat 26 26 E 12 8260 7800 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 25 25 SE 12 7706 7800 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 24 24 SE 12 7447 7800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 24 24 SE 12 7447 7800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 24 24 S 10 7447 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 22 22 S 10 7447 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 22 22 S 10 7447 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 21 21 S 10 7447 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 20 20 S 10 7447 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 19 19 S 10 7447 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 18 18 S 9 7447 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 17 17 S 9 7447 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 17 17 S 9 7447 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 19 19 SE 7 7447 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 30 30 SE 7 9505 8775 975 White 2
10 AM Sun 39 40 SE 7 11724 11408 3608 White 12
11 AM Sun 40 41 E 6 11942 11853 4053 White 13
12 Noon Sun 41 43 E 6 12375 12375 4575 White 15
1 PM Sun 42 44 E 6 12588 12588 4788 White 16
2 PM Sun 42 43 E 7 12375 12375 4575 White 15
3 PM Sun 42 43 E 7 12375 12375 4575 White 15
4 PM Sun 41 41 E 7 11942 11853 4053 White 13
5 PM Sun 38 38 E 9 11289 10488 2688 White 10
6 PM Sun 33 33 E 9 10001 9579 1779 Blue 5
7 PM Sun 28 28 E 9 9060 7800 0 White 0
8 PM Sun 27 27 S 2 8796 7800 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 26 26 S 2 8260 7800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 26 26 S 2 8260 7800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 26 26 S 8 8260 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 24 24 S 8 7447 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 24 24 S 8 7447 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 23 23 S 7 7447 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 22 22 S 7 7447 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 21 21 S 7 7447 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 20 20 E 1 7447 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 19 19 E 1 7447 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 19 19 E 1 7447 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 22 22 NE 1 7447 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 33 33 NE 1 10001 9579 1779 Blue 5
10 AM Mon 43 44 NE 1 12588 12588 4788 White 16
11 AM Mon 43 44 N 0 12588 12588 4788 White 16
12 Noon Mon 45 47 N 0 13223 13223 5423 White 19
1 PM Mon 46 48 N 0 13434 13434 5634 White 20
2 PM Mon 46 47 NW 1 13223 13223 5423 White 19
3 PM Mon 46 47 NW 1 13223 13223 5423 White 19
4 PM Mon 45 45 NW 1 12799 12799 4999 White 17
5 PM Mon 42 42 NW 1 12158 12158 4358 White 14
6 PM Mon 35 35 NW 1 10535 9876 2076 Blue 7
7 PM Mon 30 30 NW 1 9505 8775 975 White 2
8 PM Mon 29 29 N 1 9283 8248 448 White 1
9 PM Mon 27 27 N 1 8796 7800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 27 27 N 1 8796 7800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 27 27 E 2 8796 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 25 25 E 2 7706 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 24 24 E 2 7447 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 23 23 E 3 7447 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 22 22 E 3 7447 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 21 21 E 3 7447 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 20 20 SE 5 7447 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 19 19 SE 5 7447 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 19 19 SE 5 7447 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 22 22 SE 6 7447 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 32 32 SE 6 9885 9375 1575 Blue 4
10 AM Tue 42 42 SE 6 12158 12158 4358 White 14
11 AM Tue 43 44 SE 7 12588 12588 4788 White 16
12 Noon Tue 44 45 SE 7 12799 12799 4999 White 17
1 PM Tue 45 46 SE 7 13012 13012 5212 White 18
2 PM Tue 45 46 SE 8 13012 13012 5212 White 18
3 PM Tue 45 46 SE 8 13012 13012 5212 White 18
4 PM Tue 44 44 SE 8 12588 12588 4788 White 16
5 PM Tue 42 42 SE 9 12158 12158 4358 White 14
6 PM Tue 37 37 SE 9 11070 10145 2345 White 9
7 PM Tue 33 33 SE 9 10001 9579 1779 Blue 5
8 PM Tue 33 33 SE 9 10001 9579 1779 Blue 5
9 PM Tue 32 32 SE 9 9885 9375 1575 Blue 4
10 PM Tue 31 31 SE 9 9727 9170 1370 White 3
11 PM Tue 32 32 SE 9 9885 9375 1575 Blue 4
12 Midnight Wed 31 31 SE 9 9727 9170 1370 White 3
1 AM Wed 30 30 SE 9 9505 8775 975 White 2
2 AM Wed 29 29 SE 10 9283 8248 448 White 1
3 AM Wed 28 28 SE 10 9060 7800 0 White 0
4 AM Wed 27 27 SE 10 8796 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 27 27 SE 10 8796 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 26 26 SE 10 8260 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 26 26 SE 10 8260 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 28 28 SE 12 9060 7800 0 White 0
9 AM Wed 35 35 SE 12 10535 9876 2076 Blue 7
10 AM Wed 42 42 SE 12 12158 12158 4358 White 14
11 AM Wed 42 43 E 13 12375 12375 4575 White 15
12 Noon Wed 43 44 E 13 12588 12588 4788 White 16
1 PM Wed 44 45 E 13 12799 12799 4999 White 17
2 PM Wed 44 45 E 15 12799 12799 4999 White 17
3 PM Wed 44 45 E 15 12799 12799 4999 White 17
4 PM Wed 44 44 E 15 12588 12588 4788 White 16
5 PM Wed 42 42 E 15 12158 12158 4358 White 14
6 PM Wed 39 39 E 15 11507 10954 3154 White 11
7 PM Wed 37 37 E 15 11070 10145 2345 White 9
8 PM Wed 36 36 E 15 10851 9992 2192 White 8
9 PM Wed 36 36 E 15 10851 9992 2192 White 8
10 PM Wed 35 35 E 15 10535 9876 2076 Blue 7
11 PM Wed 36 36 E 15 10851 9992 2192 White 8
12 Midnight Thu 35 35 E 15 10535 9876 2076 Blue 7
1 AM Thu 34 34 E 15 10161 9761 1961 Blue 6
2 AM Thu 34 34 E 14 10161 9761 1961 Blue 6
3 AM Thu 33 33 E 14 10001 9579 1779 Blue 5
4 AM Thu 33 33 E 14 10001 9579 1779 Blue 5
5 AM Thu 32 32 E 13 9885 9375 1575 Blue 4
6 AM Thu 32 32 E 13 9885 9375 1575 Blue 4
7 AM Thu 32 32 E 13 9885 9375 1575 Blue 4
8 AM Thu 33 33 E 13 10001 9579 1779 Blue 5
9 AM Thu 37 37 E 13 11070 10145 2345 White 9
10 AM Thu 40 40 E 13 11724 11408 3608 White 12
11 AM Thu 40 41 NE 13 11942 11853 4053 White 13
12 Noon Thu 41 42 NE 13 12158 12158 4358 White 14
1 PM Thu 41 42 NE 13 12158 12158 4358 White 14
2 PM Thu 41 42 NE 13 12158 12158 4358 White 14
3 PM Thu 41 42 NE 13 12158 12158 4358 White 14
4 PM Thu 41 41 NE 13 11942 11853 4053 White 13
5 PM Thu 39 39 NE 13 11507 10954 3154 White 11
6 PM Thu 35 35 NE 13 10535 9876 2076 Blue 7
7 PM Thu 32 32 NE 13 9885 9375 1575 Blue 4
8 PM Thu 32 32 NE 12 9885 9375 1575 Blue 4
9 PM Thu 31 31 NE 12 9727 9170 1370 White 3
10 PM Thu 31 31 NE 12 9727 9170 1370 White 3
11 PM Thu 31 31 NE 9 9727 9170 1370 White 3
12 Midnight Fri 30 30 NE 9 9505 8775 975 White 2
1 AM Fri 29 29 NE 9 9283 8248 448 White 1
2 AM Fri 29 29 NE 8 9283 8248 448 White 1
3 AM Fri 28 28 NE 8 9060 7800 0 White 0
4 AM Fri 28 28 NE 8 9060 7800 0 White 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com