Detailed Predictions for: Mingus
Launch Altitude (f): 7800
LZ Altitude (f): 3550
Sounding

Station:

 KFGZ

Date/Time:

 18 MAR 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
6 AM Thu 30 30 SW 4 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 29 29 SW 4 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 33 33 SW 4 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 38 40 SW 4 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 46 49 SW 4 9089 8004 204 Blue 3
11 AM Thu 52 56 SW 4 14546 10086 2286 Blue 10
12 Noon Thu 55 59 S 8 15932 14367 6567 White 13
1 PM Thu 55 59 S 8 15932 14367 6567 White 13
2 PM Thu 54 58 S 8 15720 13357 5557 White 12
3 PM Thu 54 57 SW 11 15298 10989 3189 Blue 11
4 PM Thu 55 56 SW 11 14546 10086 2286 Blue 10
5 PM Thu 55 55 SW 11 13601 9840 2040 Blue 9
6 PM Thu 51 51 SW 12 9604 8720 920 Blue 5
7 PM Thu 46 46 SW 12 8009 7800 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 39 39 SW 12 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 36 36 SW 7 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 36 36 SW 7 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 36 36 SW 7 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 35 35 W 2 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 34 34 W 2 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 34 34 W 2 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 33 33 W 3 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 32 32 W 3 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 31 31 W 3 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 31 31 W 8 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 30 30 W 8 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 32 32 W 8 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 36 37 N 5 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 42 44 N 5 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 46 48 N 5 8733 7800 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Fri 48 52 N 10 9859 9072 1272 Blue 6
1 PM Fri 48 52 N 10 9859 9072 1272 Blue 6
2 PM Fri 47 51 N 10 9604 8720 920 Blue 5
3 PM Fri 47 49 NW 11 9089 8004 204 Blue 3
4 PM Fri 48 49 NW 11 9089 8004 204 Blue 3
5 PM Fri 48 48 NW 11 8733 7800 0 Blue 2
6 PM Fri 44 44 NW 13 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 39 39 NW 13 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 33 33 NW 13 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 31 31 NW 13 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 30 30 NW 13 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 30 30 NW 13 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 30 30 N 11 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 29 29 N 11 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 28 28 N 11 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 27 27 N 9 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 26 26 N 9 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 25 25 N 9 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 25 25 NE 11 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 25 25 NE 11 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 28 28 NE 11 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 32 34 NE 11 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 39 42 NE 11 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 43 48 NE 11 8733 7800 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Sat 46 51 N 12 9604 8720 920 Blue 5
1 PM Sat 46 51 N 12 9604 8720 920 Blue 5
2 PM Sat 45 50 N 12 9348 8364 564 Blue 4
3 PM Sat 44 47 N 12 8373 7800 0 Blue 1
4 PM Sat 46 48 N 12 8733 7800 0 Blue 2
5 PM Sat 46 46 N 12 8009 7800 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 42 42 N 12 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 37 37 N 12 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 30 30 N 12 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 28 28 N 11 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 27 27 N 11 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 27 27 N 11 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 26 26 N 10 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 25 25 N 10 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 25 25 N 10 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 24 24 N 9 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 23 23 N 9 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 22 22 N 9 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 22 22 N 8 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 21 21 N 8 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 26 26 N 8 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 33 35 N 8 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 43 46 N 8 8009 7800 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 51 56 N 8 14546 10086 2286 Blue 10
12 Noon Sun 55 60 NW 9 16141 15112 7312 White 14
1 PM Sun 55 60 NW 9 16141 15112 7312 White 14
2 PM Sun 54 59 NW 9 15932 14367 6567 White 13
3 PM Sun 53 56 W 10 14546 10086 2286 Blue 10
4 PM Sun 55 57 W 10 15298 10989 3189 Blue 11
5 PM Sun 55 55 W 10 13601 9840 2040 Blue 9
6 PM Sun 50 50 W 10 9348 8364 564 Blue 4
7 PM Sun 44 44 W 10 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 36 36 W 10 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 33 33 W 9 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 33 33 W 9 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 33 33 W 9 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 32 32 W 8 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 31 31 W 8 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 31 31 W 8 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 29 29 W 6 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 28 28 W 6 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 27 27 W 6 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 27 27 W 6 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 26 26 W 6 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 30 30 W 6 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 36 37 W 7 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 45 48 W 7 8733 7800 0 Blue 2
11 AM Mon 51 55 W 7 13601 9840 2040 Blue 9
12 Noon Mon 55 59 W 9 15932 14367 6567 White 13
1 PM Mon 55 59 W 9 15932 14367 6567 White 13
2 PM Mon 54 58 W 9 15720 13357 5557 White 12
3 PM Mon 53 56 SW 11 14546 10086 2286 Blue 10
4 PM Mon 55 56 SW 11 14546 10086 2286 Blue 10
5 PM Mon 55 55 SW 11 13601 9840 2040 Blue 9
6 PM Mon 50 50 SW 13 9348 8364 564 Blue 4
7 PM Mon 45 45 SW 13 7628 7800 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 38 38 SW 13 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 36 36 SW 13 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 35 35 SW 13 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 35 35 SW 13 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 35 35 SW 12 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 33 33 SW 12 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 33 33 SW 12 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 32 32 SW 11 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 31 31 SW 11 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 30 30 SW 11 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 30 30 SW 10 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 29 29 SW 10 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 32 32 SW 10 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 36 37 SW 11 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 43 45 SW 11 7628 7800 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 48 51 SW 11 9604 8720 920 Blue 5
12 Noon Tue 51 54 SW 13 11117 9587 1787 Blue 8
1 PM Tue 51 54 SW 13 11117 9587 1787 Blue 8
2 PM Tue 50 53 SW 13 10102 9333 1533 Blue 7
3 PM Tue 49 51 S 15 9604 8720 920 Blue 5
4 PM Tue 51 52 S 15 9859 9072 1272 Blue 6
5 PM Tue 50 50 S 15 9348 8364 564 Blue 4
6 PM Tue 47 47 S 16 8373 7800 0 Blue 1
7 PM Tue 43 43 S 16 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 37 37 S 16 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 35 35 S 14 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 35 35 S 14 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 35 35 S 14 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 34 34 S 11 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 33 33 S 11 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 33 33 S 11 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 32 32 SE 8 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 31 31 SE 8 7454 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 30 30 SE 8 7454 7800 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com