Detailed Predictions for: Merriam Crater
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.33876269790076, -111.2860844211301, 6800
LZ Altitude (f): 6000
Sounding

Station:

 KFGZ

Date/Time:

 24 APR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Wed 53 53 SW 11 16 5770 6800 0 White 0
1 AM Wed 51 51 SSW 9 13 5770 6800 0 White 0
2 AM Wed 48 48 SW 9 12 5770 6800 0 White 0
3 AM Wed 46 46 SSW 8 11 5770 6800 0 White 0
4 AM Wed 45 45 SSW 6 11 5770 6800 0 White 0
5 AM Wed 45 45 SSW 6 10 5770 6800 0 White 0
6 AM Wed 45 45 SSW 6 10 5770 6800 0 White 0
7 AM Wed 50 50 S 6 11 5770 6800 0 White 0
8 AM Wed 56 58 S 8 13 5770 6800 0 White 0
9 AM Wed 61 65 S 10 16 5770 6800 0 White 0
10 AM Wed 66 72 SSW 11 18 7071 7071 271 White 0
11 AM Wed 69 76 SSW 13 21 7921 7921 1121 White 39
12 Noon Wed 72 80 SSW 16 26 8787 8787 1987 White 42
1 PM Wed 72 79 SSW 18 29 8571 8571 1771 White 41
2 PM Wed 74 80 SSW 20 33 8787 8787 1987 White 42
3 PM Wed 73 78 SSW 23 36 8355 8355 1555 White 41
4 PM Wed 71 74 SSW 24 39 7492 7492 692 White 37
5 PM Wed 69 70 SSW 24 39 6652 6800 0 White 0
6 PM Wed 67 67 SSW 21 35 6022 6800 0 White 0
7 PM Wed 62 62 SSW 19 31 5770 6800 0 White 0
8 PM Wed 59 59 SSW 16 26 5770 6800 0 White 0
9 PM Wed 57 57 SSW 13 21 5770 6800 0 White 0
10 PM Wed 55 55 SSW 11 18 5770 6800 0 White 0
11 PM Wed 52 52 SSW 10 16 5770 6800 0 White 0
12 Midnight Thu 51 51 SSW 9 14 5770 6800 0 White 0
1 AM Thu 49 49 SSW 9 13 5770 6800 0 White 0
2 AM Thu 48 48 SSW 9 13 5770 6800 0 White 0
3 AM Thu 47 47 SSW 9 14 5770 6800 0 White 0
4 AM Thu 46 46 SSW 10 16 5770 6800 0 White 0
5 AM Thu 43 43 SSW 10 17 5770 6800 0 White 0
6 AM Thu 43 43 SSW 11 18 5770 6800 0 White 0
7 AM Thu 48 48 SSW 12 19 5770 6800 0 White 0
8 AM Thu 52 52 SSW 13 20 5770 6800 0 White 0
9 AM Thu 52 53 SW 14 23 5770 6800 0 White 0
10 AM Thu 53 55 SW 16 25 5770 6800 0 White 0
11 AM Thu 56 58 SW 17 27 5770 6800 0 White 0
12 Noon Thu 59 62 SW 19 31 5770 6800 0 White 0
1 PM Thu 60 63 SW 21 34 5770 6800 0 White 0
2 PM Thu 60 62 SW 23 36 5770 6800 0 White 0
3 PM Thu 60 62 WSW 23 36 5770 6800 0 White 0
4 PM Thu 62 63 WSW 21 35 5770 6800 0 White 0
5 PM Thu 59 59 WSW 21 34 5770 6800 0 White 0
6 PM Thu 59 59 WSW 20 33 5770 6800 0 White 0
7 PM Thu 56 56 WSW 20 32 5770 6800 0 White 0
8 PM Thu 53 53 SW 19 31 5770 6800 0 White 0
9 PM Thu 50 50 SW 18 29 5770 6800 0 White 0
10 PM Thu 49 49 SW 17 27 5770 6800 0 White 0
11 PM Thu 49 49 SW 16 26 5770 6800 0 White 0
12 Midnight Fri 46 46 SW 16 25 5770 6800 0 White 0
1 AM Fri 45 45 SW 14 24 5770 6800 0 White 0
2 AM Fri 46 46 SW 14 24 5770 6800 0 White 0
3 AM Fri 45 45 SW 16 25 5770 6800 0 White 0
4 AM Fri 44 44 SW 18 28 5770 6800 0 White 0
5 AM Fri 43 43 WSW 20 33 5770 6800 0 White 0
6 AM Fri 44 44 WSW 24 25 5770 6800 0 White 0
7 AM Fri 47 47 SW 23 25 5770 6800 0 White 0
8 AM Fri 51 52 SW 23 25 5770 6800 0 White 0
9 AM Fri 55 57 SW 24 26 5770 6800 0 White 0
10 AM Fri 59 63 SW 27 29 5770 6800 0 White 0
11 AM Fri 62 67 SW 29 32 6022 6800 0 White 0
12 Noon Fri 64 69 SW 32 34 6443 6800 0 White 0
1 PM Fri 64 69 SW 33 36 6443 6800 0 White 0
2 PM Fri 64 68 SW 34 39 6233 6800 0 White 0
3 PM Fri 62 65 SW 35 39 5770 6800 0 White 0
4 PM Fri 61 62 SW 35 39 5770 6800 0 White 0
5 PM Fri 59 59 SW 35 39 5770 6800 0 White 0
6 PM Fri 56 56 SW 34 39 5770 6800 0 White 0
7 PM Fri 52 52 SW 33 40 5770 6800 0 White 0
8 PM Fri 50 50 SW 32 40 5770 6800 0 White 0
9 PM Fri 48 48 SW 31 40 5770 6800 0 White 0
10 PM Fri 47 47 SW 31 40 5770 6800 0 White 0
11 PM Fri 46 46 SW 29 39 5770 6800 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sat 45 45 SW 28 36 5770 6800 0 White 0
1 AM Sat 44 44 SW 26 34 5770 6800 0 White 0
2 AM Sat 44 44 SW 25 31 5770 6800 0 White 0
3 AM Sat 42 42 SW 24 28 5770 6800 0 White 0
4 AM Sat 41 41 SW 23 26 5770 6800 0 White 0
5 AM Sat 41 41 SW 21 24 5770 6800 0 White 0
6 AM Sat 41 41 SW 19 23 5770 6800 0 White 0
7 AM Sat 43 43 WSW 18 21 5770 6800 0 White 0
8 AM Sat 45 45 WSW 17 21 5770 6800 0 White 0
9 AM Sat 47 48 WSW 18 23 5770 6800 0 White 0
10 AM Sat 50 52 W 19 24 5770 6800 0 White 0
11 AM Sat 52 55 W 20 25 5770 6800 0 White 0
12 Noon Sat 54 57 W 21 26 5770 6800 0 White 0
1 PM Sat 56 59 W 23 28 5770 6800 0 White 0
2 PM Sat 57 60 W 23 29 5770 6800 0 White 0
3 PM Sat 58 60 W 23 31 5770 6800 0 White 0
4 PM Sat 58 59 W 24 31 5770 6800 0 White 0
5 PM Sat 57 57 W 23 29 5770 6800 0 White 0
6 PM Sat 55 55 W 21 27 5770 6800 0 White 0
7 PM Sat 53 53 W 19 25 5770 6800 0 White 0
8 PM Sat 50 50 W 17 23 5770 6800 0 White 0
9 PM Sat 49 49 W 16 21 5770 6800 0 White 0
10 PM Sat 48 48 W 16 20 5770 6800 0 White 0
11 PM Sat 47 47 WSW 14 19 5770 6800 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sun 46 46 WSW 13 18 5770 6800 0 White 0
1 AM Sun 45 45 WSW 13 18 5770 6800 0 White 0
2 AM Sun 44 44 WSW 12 17 5770 6800 0 White 0
3 AM Sun 42 42 WSW 12 16 5770 6800 0 White 0
4 AM Sun 41 41 WSW 11 14 5770 6800 0 White 0
5 AM Sun 41 41 WSW 11 13 5770 6800 0 White 0
6 AM Sun 43 43 W 10 12 5770 6800 0 White 0
7 AM Sun 47 47 W 9 12 5770 6800 0 White 0
8 AM Sun 51 53 W 9 12 5770 6800 0 White 0
9 AM Sun 54 57 W 10 14 5770 6800 0 White 0
10 AM Sun 58 63 WNW 11 17 5770 6800 0 White 0
11 AM Sun 61 67 NW 12 19 6022 6800 0 White 0
12 Noon Sun 63 70 NW 13 20 6652 6800 0 White 0
1 PM Sun 65 71 WNW 14 21 6862 6862 62 White 0
2 PM Sun 66 71 WNW 16 23 6862 6862 62 White 0
3 PM Sun 67 71 WNW 16 23 6862 6862 62 White 0
4 PM Sun 67 69 WNW 16 23 6443 6800 0 White 0
5 PM Sun 66 67 WNW 16 21 6022 6800 0 White 0
6 PM Sun 63 63 WNW 14 21 5770 6800 0 White 0
7 PM Sun 60 60 W 14 20 5770 6800 0 White 0
8 PM Sun 56 56 W 13 19 5770 6800 0 White 0
9 PM Sun 53 53 W 13 18 5770 6800 0 White 0
10 PM Sun 51 51 W 12 16 5770 6800 0 White 0
11 PM Sun 50 50 WSW 12 14 5770 6800 0 White 0
12 Midnight Mon 48 48 WSW 11 13 5770 6800 0 White 0
1 AM Mon 48 48 WSW 10 12 5770 6800 0 White 0
2 AM Mon 46 46 WSW 9 11 5770 6800 0 White 0
3 AM Mon 45 45 WSW 8 10 5770 6800 0 White 0
4 AM Mon 43 43 WSW 6 9 5770 6800 0 White 0
5 AM Mon 43 43 WSW 6 8 5770 6800 0 White 0
6 AM Mon 45 45 SW 6 8 5770 6800 0 White 0
7 AM Mon 49 49 S 6 9 5770 6800 0 White 0
8 AM Mon 53 55 S 6 10 5770 6800 0 White 0
9 AM Mon 57 60 SSE 8 12 5770 6800 0 White 0
10 AM Mon 62 67 SSE 10 13 6022 6800 0 White 0
11 AM Mon 65 72 SE 11 16 7071 7071 271 White 0
12 Noon Mon 68 76 SSE 12 17 7921 7921 1121 White 39
1 PM Mon 70 77 S 12 18 8138 8138 1338 White 40
2 PM Mon 72 78 SSW 13 19 8355 8355 1555 White 41
3 PM Mon 73 78 SSW 14 20 8355 8355 1555 White 41
4 PM Mon 73 76 SW 16 21 7921 7921 1121 White 39
5 PM Mon 72 73 SW 16 21 7281 7281 481 White 36
6 PM Mon 69 69 SW 16 21 6443 6800 0 White 0
7 PM Mon 65 65 SW 16 20 5770 6800 0 White 0
8 PM Mon 62 62 SW 14 19 5770 6800 0 White 0
9 PM Mon 59 59 SW 13 18 5770 6800 0 White 0
10 PM Mon 57 57 SW 13 17 5770 6800 0 White 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]