SoaringPredictor for Merriam Crater

Detailed Predictions for: Merriam Crater
Launch Altitude (f): 6800
LZ Altitude (f): 6000

Sounding
Station:	KFGZ
Date/Time:	4 FEB 2012
Temp/Wind data from:	NOAA Digital Forecast

Time (Local)	High Temp	Puddle Temp	Wind (mph)	Thermal Ceiling (ft)	Soaring Ceiling (ft)	Above Launch (ft)	Thermal Type	Thermal Index (F)
5 AM Sat	20	20	NW 3	0	6800	0	Blue	0
6 AM Sat	19	19	NW 3	0	6800	0	Blue	0
7 AM Sat	17	17	NW 3	0	6800	0	Blue	0
8 AM Sat	19	19	N 7	0	6800	0	Blue	0
9 AM Sat	29	29	N 7	5770	6800	0	White	0
10 AM Sat	36	37	N 7	5889	6800	0	White	0
11 AM Sat	38	40	NE 9	6544	6800	0	White	0
12 Noon Sat	40	42	NE 9	6979	6979	179	White	0
1 PM Sat	41	43	NE 9	7197	7197	397	White	12
2 PM Sat	43	45	NE 9	7633	7633	833	White	14
3 PM Sat	45	46	NE 9	7849	7849	1049	White	15
4 PM Sat	46	46	NE 9	7849	7849	1049	White	15
5 PM Sat	44	44	NE 9	7415	7415	615	White	13
6 PM Sat	38	38	NE 9	6108	6800	0	White	0
7 PM Sat	32	32	NE 9	5770	6800	0	White	0
8 PM Sat	30	30	N 7	5770	6800	0	White	0
9 PM Sat	28	28	N 7	5770	6800	0	White	0
10 PM Sat	27	27	N 7	5770	6800	0	White	0
11 PM Sat	28	28	N 5	5770	6800	0	White	0
12 Midnight Sun	26	26	N 5	5770	6800	0	White	0
1 AM Sun	26	26	N 5	5770	6800	0	White	0
2 AM Sun	25	25	NW 2	5770	6800	0	White	0
3 AM Sun	22	22	NW 2	0	6800	0	Blue	0
4 AM Sun	21	21	NW 2	0	6800	0	Blue	0
5 AM Sun	20	20	NW 2	0	6800	0	Blue	0
6 AM Sun	19	19	NW 2	0	6800	0	Blue	0
7 AM Sun	17	17	NW 2	0	6800	0	Blue	0
8 AM Sun	19	19	N 3	0	6800	0	Blue	0
9 AM Sun	29	29	N 3	5770	6800	0	White	0
10 AM Sun	36	37	N 3	5889	6800	0	White	0
11 AM Sun	38	40	NE 7	6544	6800	0	White	0
12 Noon Sun	40	42	NE 7	6979	6979	179	White	0
1 PM Sun	41	43	NE 7	7197	7197	397	White	12
2 PM Sun	43	45	NE 8	7633	7633	833	White	14
3 PM Sun	45	46	NE 8	7849	7849	1049	White	15
4 PM Sun	46	46	NE 8	7849	7849	1049	White	15
5 PM Sun	44	44	NE 8	7415	7415	615	White	13
6 PM Sun	39	39	NE 8	6326	6800	0	White	0
7 PM Sun	33	33	NE 8	5770	6800	0	White	0
8 PM Sun	31	31	N 3	5770	6800	0	White	0
9 PM Sun	29	29	N 3	5770	6800	0	White	0
10 PM Sun	28	28	N 3	5770	6800	0	White	0
11 PM Sun	29	29	NW 3	5770	6800	0	White	0
12 Midnight Mon	28	28	NW 3	5770	6800	0	White	0
1 AM Mon	28	28	NW 3	5770	6800	0	White	0
2 AM Mon	26	26	NW 2	5770	6800	0	White	0
3 AM Mon	24	24	NW 2	5770	6800	0	White	0
4 AM Mon	23	23	NW 2	0	6800	0	Blue	0
5 AM Mon	22	22	N 3	0	6800	0	Blue	0
6 AM Mon	21	21	N 3	0	6800	0	Blue	0
7 AM Mon	19	19	N 3	0	6800	0	Blue	0
8 AM Mon	21	21	N 3	0	6800	0	Blue	0
9 AM Mon	32	32	N 3	5770	6800	0	White	0
10 AM Mon	38	39	N 3	6326	6800	0	White	0
11 AM Mon	41	42	N 3	6979	6979	179	White	0
12 Noon Mon	43	45	N 3	7633	7633	833	White	14
1 PM Mon	44	46	N 3	7849	7849	1049	White	15
2 PM Mon	46	48	N 5	8281	8281	1481	White	17
3 PM Mon	48	49	N 5	8496	8496	1696	White	18
4 PM Mon	49	49	N 5	8496	8496	1696	White	18
5 PM Mon	47	47	NE 5	8065	8065	1265	White	16
6 PM Mon	41	41	NE 5	6762	6800	0	White	0
7 PM Mon	35	35	NE 5	5770	6800	0	White	0
8 PM Mon	33	33	N 7	5770	6800	0	White	0
9 PM Mon	31	31	N 7	5770	6800	0	White	0
10 PM Mon	29	29	N 7	5770	6800	0	White	0
11 PM Mon	30	30	N 8	5770	6800	0	White	0
12 Midnight Tue	29	29	N 8	5770	6800	0	White	0
1 AM Tue	29	29	N 8	5770	6800	0	White	0
2 AM Tue	27	27	N 7	5770	6800	0	White	0
3 AM Tue	24	24	N 7	5770	6800	0	White	0
4 AM Tue	23	23	N 7	0	6800	0	Blue	0
5 AM Tue	23	23	N 6	0	6800	0	Blue	0
6 AM Tue	21	21	N 6	0	6800	0	Blue	0
7 AM Tue	19	19	N 6	0	6800	0	Blue	0
8 AM Tue	21	21	N 6	0	6800	0	Blue	0
9 AM Tue	32	32	N 6	5770	6800	0	White	0
10 AM Tue	40	40	N 6	6544	6800	0	White	0
11 AM Tue	43	44	NE 6	7415	7415	615	White	13
12 Noon Tue	45	46	NE 6	7849	7849	1049	White	15
1 PM Tue	46	47	NE 6	8065	8065	1265	White	16
2 PM Tue	47	48	E 7	8281	8281	1481	White	17
3 PM Tue	49	50	E 7	8712	8712	1912	White	19
4 PM Tue	51	51	E 7	8927	8927	2127	White	20
5 PM Tue	49	49	E 7	8496	8496	1696	White	18
6 PM Tue	44	44	E 7	7415	7415	615	White	13
7 PM Tue	39	39	E 7	6326	6800	0	White	0
8 PM Tue	37	37	E 7	5889	6800	0	White	0
9 PM Tue	35	35	E 7	5770	6800	0	White	0
10 PM Tue	34	34	E 7	5770	6800	0	White	0
11 PM Tue	35	35	E 6	5770	6800	0	White	0
12 Midnight Wed	33	33	E 6	5770	6800	0	White	0
1 AM Wed	34	34	E 6	5770	6800	0	White	0
2 AM Wed	32	32	NE 6	5770	6800	0	White	0
3 AM Wed	30	30	NE 6	5770	6800	0	White	0
4 AM Wed	29	29	NE 6	5770	6800	0	White	0
5 AM Wed	28	28	NE 6	5770	6800	0	White	0
6 AM Wed	27	27	NE 6	5770	6800	0	White	0
7 AM Wed	25	25	NE 6	5770	6800	0	White	0
8 AM Wed	27	27	NE 7	5770	6800	0	White	0
9 AM Wed	36	36	NE 7	5770	6800	0	White	0
10 AM Wed	42	42	NE 7	6979	6979	179	White	0
11 AM Wed	45	46	N 8	7849	7849	1049	White	15
12 Noon Wed	47	48	N 8	8281	8281	1481	White	17
1 PM Wed	47	48	N 8	8281	8281	1481	White	17
2 PM Wed	49	50	N 9	8712	8712	1912	White	19
3 PM Wed	51	52	N 9	9141	9141	2341	White	21
4 PM Wed	52	52	N 9	9141	9141	2341	White	21
5 PM Wed	50	50	N 10	8712	8712	1912	White	19
6 PM Wed	46	46	N 10	7849	7849	1049	White	15
7 PM Wed	42	42	N 10	6979	6979	179	White	0
8 PM Wed	41	41	N 10	6762	6800	0	White	0
9 PM Wed	39	39	N 10	6326	6800	0	White	0
10 PM Wed	38	38	N 10	6108	6800	0	White	0
11 PM Wed	39	39	N 10	6326	6800	0	White	0
12 Midnight Thu	38	38	N 10	6108	6800	0	White	0
1 AM Thu	38	38	N 10	6108	6800	0	White	0
2 AM Thu	37	37	N 9	5889	6800	0	White	0
3 AM Thu	35	35	N 9	5770	6800	0	White	0
4 AM Thu	34	34	N 9	5770	6800	0	White	0
5 AM Thu	33	33	N 9	5770	6800	0	White	0
6 AM Thu	32	32	N 9	5770	6800	0	White	0
7 AM Thu	31	31	N 9	5770	6800	0	White	0
8 AM Thu	32	32	N 9	5770	6800	0	White	0
9 AM Thu	38	38	N 9	6108	6800	0	White	0
10 AM Thu	41	41	N 9	6762	6800	0	White	0
11 AM Thu	43	44	N 10	7415	7415	615	White	13
12 Noon Thu	44	45	N 10	7633	7633	833	White	14
1 PM Thu	44	45	N 10	7633	7633	833	White	14
2 PM Thu	45	46	N 10	7849	7849	1049	White	15
3 PM Thu	46	47	N 10	8065	8065	1265	White	16
4 PM Thu	47	47	N 10	8065	8065	1265	White	16
5 PM Thu	45	45	N 9	7633	7633	833	White	14
6 PM Thu	40	40	N 9	6544	6800	0	White	0
7 PM Thu	35	35	N 9	5770	6800	0	White	0
8 PM Thu	34	34	N 8	5770	6800	0	White	0
9 PM Thu	32	32	N 8	5770	6800	0	White	0
10 PM Thu	31	31	N 8	5770	6800	0	White	0
11 PM Thu	32	32	N 6	5770	6800	0	White	0
12 Midnight Fri	31	31	N 6	5770	6800	0	White	0
1 AM Fri	31	31	N 6	5770	6800	0	White	0
2 AM Fri	29	29	N 3	5770	6800	0	White	0
3 AM Fri	27	27	N 3	5770	6800	0	White	0
4 AM Fri	26	26	N 3	5770	6800	0	White	0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only. No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates. These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying. Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released. If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid. Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST). If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level. We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes. Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate. Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink. It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website. Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature.

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun. When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air. The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals. A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable. Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates.

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com