SoaringPredictor for Merriam Crater

Detailed Predictions for: Merriam Crater
Launch Altitude (f): 6800
LZ Altitude (f): 6000

Sounding
Station:	KFGZ
Date/Time:	3 SEP 2010
Temp/Wind data from:	NOAA Digital Forecast

Time (Local)	High Temp	Puddle Temp	Wind (mph)	Thermal Ceiling (ft)	Soaring Ceiling (ft)	Above Launch (ft)	Thermal Type	Thermal Index (F)
6 AM Fri	54	54	S 5	7224	7183	383	Blue	5
7 AM Fri	52	52	S 5	7197	7156	356	Blue	3
8 AM Fri	67	68	S 5	7354	7327	527	Blue	19
9 AM Fri	74	76	E 6	7451	7400	600	Blue	27
10 AM Fri	79	83	E 6	9027	7621	821	Blue	34
11 AM Fri	82	87	E 6	17278	10276	3476	White	38
12 Noon Fri	83	88	E 5	17479	17313	10513	White	39
1 PM Fri	85	90	E 5	17882	17577	10777	White	41
2 PM Fri	86	90	E 5	17882	17577	10777	White	41
3 PM Fri	87	90	SE 2	17882	17577	10777	White	41
4 PM Fri	87	89	SE 2	17681	17441	10641	White	40
5 PM Fri	86	87	SE 2	17278	10276	3476	White	38
6 PM Fri	85	85	SE 2	16860	7984	1184	White	36
7 PM Fri	82	82	SE 2	7997	7504	704	Blue	33
8 PM Fri	77	77	SE 2	7468	7417	617	Blue	28
9 PM Fri	72	72	NE 3	7388	7362	562	Blue	23
10 PM Fri	69	69	NE 3	7362	7336	536	Blue	20
11 PM Fri	67	67	NE 3	7345	7319	519	Blue	18
12 Midnight Sat	64	64	SW 3	7319	7293	493	Blue	15
1 AM Sat	62	62	SW 3	7302	7276	476	Blue	13
2 AM Sat	63	63	SW 3	7311	7285	485	Blue	14
3 AM Sat	61	61	SW 2	7294	7268	468	Blue	12
4 AM Sat	60	60	SW 2	7285	7259	459	Blue	11
5 AM Sat	57	57	SW 2	7260	7223	423	Blue	8
6 AM Sat	55	55	S 0	7238	7196	396	Blue	6
7 AM Sat	53	53	S 0	7211	7169	369	Blue	4
8 AM Sat	68	69	S 0	7362	7336	536	Blue	20
9 AM Sat	75	77	E 2	7468	7417	617	Blue	28
10 AM Sat	80	84	E 2	10462	7802	1002	Blue	35
11 AM Sat	83	88	E 2	17479	17313	10513	White	39
12 Noon Sat	84	89	W 3	17681	17441	10641	White	40
1 PM Sat	86	91	W 3	18083	17751	10951	White	42
2 PM Sat	87	91	W 3	18083	17751	10951	White	42
3 PM Sat	88	91	W 9	18083	17751	10951	White	42
4 PM Sat	88	90	W 9	17882	17577	10777	White	41
5 PM Sat	87	88	W 9	17479	17313	10513	White	39
6 PM Sat	86	86	SW 6	17070	8862	2062	White	37
7 PM Sat	84	84	SW 6	10462	7802	1002	Blue	35
8 PM Sat	79	79	SW 6	7510	7450	650	Blue	30
9 PM Sat	75	75	SW 3	7434	7387	587	Blue	26
10 PM Sat	73	73	SW 3	7401	7370	570	Blue	24
11 PM Sat	71	71	SW 3	7379	7353	553	Blue	22
12 Midnight Sun	68	68	SW 2	7354	7327	527	Blue	19
1 AM Sun	67	67	SW 2	7345	7319	519	Blue	18
2 AM Sun	68	68	SW 2	7354	7327	527	Blue	19
3 AM Sun	66	66	SW 2	7336	7310	510	Blue	17
4 AM Sun	66	66	SW 2	7336	7310	510	Blue	17
5 AM Sun	63	63	SW 2	7311	7285	485	Blue	14
6 AM Sun	61	61	SW 3	7294	7268	468	Blue	12
7 AM Sun	59	59	SW 3	7277	7251	451	Blue	10
8 AM Sun	70	71	SW 3	7379	7353	553	Blue	22
9 AM Sun	76	78	SW 8	7485	7433	633	Blue	29
10 AM Sun	79	82	SW 8	7997	7504	704	Blue	33
11 AM Sun	82	86	SW 8	17070	8862	2062	White	37
12 Noon Sun	83	89	SW 22	17681	17441	10641	White	40
1 PM Sun	84	90	SW 22	17882	17577	10777	White	41
2 PM Sun	85	90	SW 22	17882	17577	10777	White	41
3 PM Sun	86	90	SW 24	17882	17577	10777	White	41
4 PM Sun	86	88	SW 24	17479	17313	10513	White	39
5 PM Sun	85	86	SW 24	17070	8862	2062	White	37
6 PM Sun	83	83	SW 24	9027	7621	821	Blue	34
7 PM Sun	81	81	SW 24	7814	7484	684	Blue	32
8 PM Sun	76	76	SW 24	7451	7400	600	Blue	27
9 PM Sun	71	71	SW 17	7379	7353	553	Blue	22
10 PM Sun	68	68	SW 17	7354	7327	527	Blue	19
11 PM Sun	67	67	SW 17	7345	7319	519	Blue	18
12 Midnight Mon	64	64	SW 12	7319	7293	493	Blue	15
1 AM Mon	62	62	SW 12	7302	7276	476	Blue	13
2 AM Mon	63	63	SW 12	7311	7285	485	Blue	14
3 AM Mon	61	61	SW 8	7294	7268	468	Blue	12
4 AM Mon	60	60	SW 8	7285	7259	459	Blue	11
5 AM Mon	57	57	SW 8	7260	7223	423	Blue	8
6 AM Mon	55	55	SW 5	7238	7196	396	Blue	6
7 AM Mon	53	53	SW 5	7211	7169	369	Blue	4
8 AM Mon	66	67	SW 5	7345	7319	519	Blue	18
9 AM Mon	72	74	SW 9	7418	7379	579	Blue	25
10 AM Mon	76	80	SW 9	7632	7467	667	Blue	31
11 AM Mon	79	84	SW 9	10462	7802	1002	Blue	35
12 Noon Mon	80	86	SW 9	17070	8862	2062	White	37
1 PM Mon	81	87	SW 9	17278	10276	3476	White	38
2 PM Mon	82	88	SW 9	17479	17313	10513	White	39
3 PM Mon	83	87	SW 12	17278	10276	3476	White	38
4 PM Mon	83	85	SW 12	16860	7984	1184	White	36
5 PM Mon	82	83	SW 12	9027	7621	821	Blue	34
6 PM Mon	81	81	SW 12	7814	7484	684	Blue	32
7 PM Mon	78	78	SW 12	7485	7433	633	Blue	29
8 PM Mon	73	73	SW 12	7401	7370	570	Blue	24
9 PM Mon	67	67	SW 7	7345	7319	519	Blue	18
10 PM Mon	64	64	SW 7	7319	7293	493	Blue	15
11 PM Mon	63	63	SW 7	7311	7285	485	Blue	14
12 Midnight Tue	59	59	SW 3	7277	7251	451	Blue	10
1 AM Tue	58	58	SW 3	7268	7237	437	Blue	9
2 AM Tue	59	59	SW 3	7277	7251	451	Blue	10
3 AM Tue	56	56	SW 3	7251	7210	410	Blue	7
4 AM Tue	56	56	SW 3	7251	7210	410	Blue	7
5 AM Tue	52	52	SW 3	7197	7156	356	Blue	3
6 AM Tue	50	50	SW 2	7170	7149	349	Blue	2
7 AM Tue	48	48	SW 2	0	6800	0	Blue	0
8 AM Tue	63	64	SW 2	7319	7293	493	Blue	15
9 AM Tue	70	72	SW 7	7388	7362	562	Blue	23
10 AM Tue	74	78	SW 7	7485	7433	633	Blue	29
11 AM Tue	77	82	SW 7	7997	7504	704	Blue	33
12 Noon Tue	79	85	SW 13	16860	7984	1184	White	36
1 PM Tue	80	86	SW 13	17070	8862	2062	White	37
2 PM Tue	81	86	SW 13	17070	8862	2062	White	37
3 PM Tue	82	86	SW 15	17070	8862	2062	White	37
4 PM Tue	82	84	SW 15	10462	7802	1002	Blue	35
5 PM Tue	81	82	SW 15	7997	7504	704	Blue	33
6 PM Tue	80	80	SW 15	7632	7467	667	Blue	31
7 PM Tue	77	77	SW 15	7468	7417	617	Blue	28
8 PM Tue	72	72	SW 15	7388	7362	562	Blue	23
9 PM Tue	67	67	SW 10	7345	7319	519	Blue	18
10 PM Tue	64	64	SW 10	7319	7293	493	Blue	15
11 PM Tue	63	63	SW 10	7311	7285	485	Blue	14
12 Midnight Wed	59	59	S 7	7277	7251	451	Blue	10
1 AM Wed	58	58	S 7	7268	7237	437	Blue	9
2 AM Wed	59	59	S 7	7277	7251	451	Blue	10
3 AM Wed	56	56	S 3	7251	7210	410	Blue	7
4 AM Wed	56	56	S 3	7251	7210	410	Blue	7
5 AM Wed	53	53	S 3	7211	7169	369	Blue	4
6 AM Wed	50	50	S 3	7170	7149	349	Blue	2
7 AM Wed	48	48	S 3	0	6800	0	Blue	0
8 AM Wed	62	63	S 3	7311	7285	485	Blue	14
9 AM Wed	68	70	S 7	7371	7345	545	Blue	21
10 AM Wed	73	76	S 7	7451	7400	600	Blue	27
11 AM Wed	75	80	S 7	7632	7467	667	Blue	31
12 Noon Wed	77	83	S 14	9027	7621	821	Blue	34
1 PM Wed	78	84	S 14	10462	7802	1002	Blue	35
2 PM Wed	79	84	S 14	10462	7802	1002	Blue	35
3 PM Wed	80	84	SW 16	10462	7802	1002	Blue	35
4 PM Wed	80	82	SW 16	7997	7504	704	Blue	33
5 PM Wed	79	80	SW 16	7632	7467	667	Blue	31
6 PM Wed	78	78	SW 16	7485	7433	633	Blue	29
7 PM Wed	75	75	SW 16	7434	7387	587	Blue	26
8 PM Wed	71	71	SW 16	7379	7353	553	Blue	22
9 PM Wed	66	66	S 10	7336	7310	510	Blue	17
10 PM Wed	63	63	S 10	7311	7285	485	Blue	14
11 PM Wed	62	62	S 10	7302	7276	476	Blue	13
12 Midnight Thu	59	59	S 6	7277	7251	451	Blue	10
1 AM Thu	57	57	S 6	7260	7223	423	Blue	8
2 AM Thu	58	58	S 6	7268	7237	437	Blue	9
3 AM Thu	56	56	S 5	7251	7210	410	Blue	7
4 AM Thu	55	55	S 5	7238	7196	396	Blue	6
5 AM Thu	52	52	S 5	7197	7156	356	Blue	3

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only. No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates. These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying. Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released. If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid. Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST). If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level. We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes. Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate. Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink. It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website. Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature.

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun. When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air. The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals. A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable. Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates.

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com