SoaringPredictor for Merriam Crater

Detailed Predictions for: Merriam Crater
Launch Altitude (f): 6800
LZ Altitude (f): 6000

Sounding
Station:	KFGZ
Date/Time:	18 MAR 2010
Temp/Wind data from:	NOAA Digital Forecast

Time (Local)	High Temp	Puddle Temp	Wind (mph)	Thermal Ceiling (ft)	Soaring Ceiling (ft)	Above Launch (ft)	Thermal Type	Thermal Index (F)
6 AM Thu	36	36	SE 3	7208	7181	381	Blue	5
7 AM Thu	35	35	SE 3	7199	7167	367	Blue	4
8 AM Thu	36	36	SE 3	7208	7181	381	Blue	5
9 AM Thu	45	46	SE 3	7296	7269	469	Blue	15
10 AM Thu	51	54	SE 3	7422	7339	539	Blue	23
11 AM Thu	57	61	SE 3	9488	8567	1767	Blue	30
12 Noon Thu	60	64	SE 4	10465	9457	2657	Blue	33
1 PM Thu	61	65	SE 4	12252	9704	2904	Blue	34
2 PM Thu	63	66	SE 4	13997	9950	3150	Blue	35
3 PM Thu	64	66	SW 7	13997	9950	3150	Blue	35
4 PM Thu	64	65	SW 7	12252	9704	2904	Blue	34
5 PM Thu	63	63	SW 7	9984	9209	2409	Blue	32
6 PM Thu	62	62	SW 9	9737	8911	2111	Blue	31
7 PM Thu	58	58	SW 9	8600	7493	693	Blue	27
8 PM Thu	51	51	SW 9	7340	7313	513	Blue	20
9 PM Thu	48	48	SW 5	7313	7286	486	Blue	17
10 PM Thu	45	45	SW 5	7287	7260	460	Blue	14
11 PM Thu	44	44	SW 5	7278	7251	451	Blue	13
12 Midnight Fri	42	42	SW 5	7260	7234	434	Blue	11
1 AM Fri	42	42	SW 5	7260	7234	434	Blue	11
2 AM Fri	41	41	SW 5	7252	7225	425	Blue	10
3 AM Fri	40	40	SW 4	7243	7216	416	Blue	9
4 AM Fri	37	37	SW 4	7217	7190	390	Blue	6
5 AM Fri	37	37	SW 4	7217	7190	390	Blue	6
6 AM Fri	35	35	W 4	7199	7167	367	Blue	4
7 AM Fri	34	34	W 4	7190	7153	353	Blue	3
8 AM Fri	35	35	W 4	7199	7167	367	Blue	4
9 AM Fri	42	43	N 3	7269	7242	442	Blue	12
10 AM Fri	47	48	N 3	7313	7286	486	Blue	17
11 AM Fri	52	54	N 3	7422	7339	539	Blue	23
12 Noon Fri	54	58	N 7	8600	7493	693	Blue	27
1 PM Fri	55	59	N 7	8947	7869	1069	Blue	28
2 PM Fri	57	60	N 7	9238	8220	1420	Blue	29
3 PM Fri	57	59	NW 10	8947	7869	1069	Blue	28
4 PM Fri	57	58	NW 10	8600	7493	693	Blue	27
5 PM Fri	57	57	NW 10	8249	7420	620	Blue	26
6 PM Fri	55	55	W 11	7516	7348	548	Blue	24
7 PM Fri	51	51	W 11	7340	7313	513	Blue	20
8 PM Fri	44	44	W 11	7278	7251	451	Blue	13
9 PM Fri	40	40	W 10	7243	7216	416	Blue	9
10 PM Fri	37	37	W 10	7217	7190	390	Blue	6
11 PM Fri	37	37	W 10	7217	7190	390	Blue	6
12 Midnight Sat	35	35	W 5	7199	7167	367	Blue	4
1 AM Sat	35	35	W 5	7199	7167	367	Blue	4
2 AM Sat	33	33	W 5	7181	7149	349	Blue	2
3 AM Sat	32	32	W 3	7167	7149	349	Blue	1
4 AM Sat	30	30	W 3	0	6800	0	Blue	0
5 AM Sat	29	29	W 3	0	6800	0	Blue	0
6 AM Sat	27	27	NE 3	0	6800	0	Blue	0
7 AM Sat	27	27	NE 3	0	6800	0	Blue	0
8 AM Sat	27	27	NE 3	0	6800	0	Blue	0
9 AM Sat	35	37	NE 6	7217	7190	390	Blue	6
10 AM Sat	40	43	NE 6	7269	7242	442	Blue	12
11 AM Sat	45	49	NE 6	7322	7295	495	Blue	18
12 Noon Sat	47	52	NE 8	7348	7322	522	Blue	21
1 PM Sat	49	54	NE 8	7422	7339	539	Blue	23
2 PM Sat	51	55	NE 8	7516	7348	548	Blue	24
3 PM Sat	51	54	N 9	7422	7339	539	Blue	23
4 PM Sat	51	52	N 9	7348	7322	522	Blue	21
5 PM Sat	51	51	N 9	7340	7313	513	Blue	20
6 PM Sat	49	49	N 10	7322	7295	495	Blue	18
7 PM Sat	45	45	N 10	7287	7260	460	Blue	14
8 PM Sat	40	40	N 10	7243	7216	416	Blue	9
9 PM Sat	36	36	NE 10	7208	7181	381	Blue	5
10 PM Sat	34	34	NE 10	7190	7153	353	Blue	3
11 PM Sat	33	33	NE 10	7181	7149	349	Blue	2
12 Midnight Sun	31	31	E 8	7154	7149	349	Blue	0
1 AM Sun	31	31	E 8	7154	7149	349	Blue	0
2 AM Sun	30	30	E 8	0	6800	0	Blue	0
3 AM Sun	29	29	SE 6	0	6800	0	Blue	0
4 AM Sun	27	27	SE 6	0	6800	0	Blue	0
5 AM Sun	26	26	SE 6	0	6800	0	Blue	0
6 AM Sun	25	25	SE 5	0	6800	0	Blue	0
7 AM Sun	24	24	SE 5	0	6800	0	Blue	0
8 AM Sun	25	25	SE 5	0	6800	0	Blue	0
9 AM Sun	37	39	S 3	7234	7207	407	Blue	8
10 AM Sun	45	48	S 3	7313	7286	486	Blue	17
11 AM Sun	52	57	S 3	8249	7420	620	Blue	26
12 Noon Sun	56	61	SW 2	9488	8567	1767	Blue	30
1 PM Sun	58	63	SW 2	9984	9209	2409	Blue	32
2 PM Sun	60	65	SW 2	12252	9704	2904	Blue	34
3 PM Sun	61	64	W 2	10465	9457	2657	Blue	33
4 PM Sun	61	63	W 2	9984	9209	2409	Blue	32
5 PM Sun	60	60	W 2	9238	8220	1420	Blue	29
6 PM Sun	59	59	W 2	8947	7869	1069	Blue	28
7 PM Sun	55	55	W 2	7516	7348	548	Blue	24
8 PM Sun	48	48	W 2	7313	7286	486	Blue	17
9 PM Sun	44	44	W 2	7278	7251	451	Blue	13
10 PM Sun	41	41	W 2	7252	7225	425	Blue	10
11 PM Sun	41	41	W 2	7252	7225	425	Blue	10
12 Midnight Mon	39	39	W 2	7234	7207	407	Blue	8
1 AM Mon	38	38	W 2	7225	7199	399	Blue	7
2 AM Mon	37	37	W 2	7217	7190	390	Blue	6
3 AM Mon	36	36	SW 3	7208	7181	381	Blue	5
4 AM Mon	34	34	SW 3	7190	7153	353	Blue	3
5 AM Mon	33	33	SW 3	7181	7149	349	Blue	2
6 AM Mon	31	31	SW 4	7154	7149	349	Blue	0
7 AM Mon	30	30	SW 4	0	6800	0	Blue	0
8 AM Mon	31	31	SW 4	7154	7149	349	Blue	0
9 AM Mon	41	42	SW 6	7260	7234	434	Blue	11
10 AM Mon	49	52	SW 6	7348	7322	522	Blue	21
11 AM Mon	55	59	SW 6	8947	7869	1069	Blue	28
12 Noon Mon	58	62	SW 8	9737	8911	2111	Blue	31
1 PM Mon	60	64	SW 8	10465	9457	2657	Blue	33
2 PM Mon	63	67	SW 8	14767	10281	3481	Blue	36
3 PM Mon	63	66	SW 10	13997	9950	3150	Blue	35
4 PM Mon	63	64	SW 10	10465	9457	2657	Blue	33
5 PM Mon	62	62	SW 10	9737	8911	2111	Blue	31
6 PM Mon	61	61	SW 12	9488	8567	1767	Blue	30
7 PM Mon	57	57	SW 12	8249	7420	620	Blue	26
8 PM Mon	51	51	SW 12	7340	7313	513	Blue	20
9 PM Mon	47	47	SW 11	7304	7278	478	Blue	16
10 PM Mon	44	44	SW 11	7278	7251	451	Blue	13
11 PM Mon	44	44	SW 11	7278	7251	451	Blue	13
12 Midnight Tue	42	42	SW 9	7260	7234	434	Blue	11
1 AM Tue	41	41	SW 9	7252	7225	425	Blue	10
2 AM Tue	40	40	SW 9	7243	7216	416	Blue	9
3 AM Tue	39	39	SW 7	7234	7207	407	Blue	8
4 AM Tue	37	37	SW 7	7217	7190	390	Blue	6
5 AM Tue	36	36	SW 7	7208	7181	381	Blue	5
6 AM Tue	34	34	SW 7	7190	7153	353	Blue	3
7 AM Tue	33	33	SW 7	7181	7149	349	Blue	2
8 AM Tue	34	34	SW 7	7190	7153	353	Blue	3
9 AM Tue	43	44	SW 8	7278	7251	451	Blue	13
10 AM Tue	49	51	SW 8	7340	7313	513	Blue	20
11 AM Tue	54	57	SW 8	8249	7420	620	Blue	26
12 Noon Tue	56	59	SW 10	8947	7869	1069	Blue	28
1 PM Tue	58	61	SW 10	9488	8567	1767	Blue	30
2 PM Tue	60	63	SW 10	9984	9209	2409	Blue	32
3 PM Tue	60	62	SW 12	9737	8911	2111	Blue	31
4 PM Tue	61	62	SW 12	9737	8911	2111	Blue	31
5 PM Tue	60	60	SW 12	9238	8220	1420	Blue	29
6 PM Tue	59	59	SW 13	8947	7869	1069	Blue	28
7 PM Tue	55	55	SW 13	7516	7348	548	Blue	24
8 PM Tue	49	49	SW 13	7322	7295	495	Blue	18
9 PM Tue	45	45	S 12	7287	7260	460	Blue	14
10 PM Tue	42	42	S 12	7260	7234	434	Blue	11
11 PM Tue	42	42	S 12	7260	7234	434	Blue	11
12 Midnight Wed	40	40	SE 9	7243	7216	416	Blue	9
1 AM Wed	40	40	SE 9	7243	7216	416	Blue	9
2 AM Wed	39	39	SE 9	7234	7207	407	Blue	8
3 AM Wed	37	37	E 7	7217	7190	390	Blue	6
4 AM Wed	35	35	E 7	7199	7167	367	Blue	4
5 AM Wed	35	35	E 7	7199	7167	367	Blue	4

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only. No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates. These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying. Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released. If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid. Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST). If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level. We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes. Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate. Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink. It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website. Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature.

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun. When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air. The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals. A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable. Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates.

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com