SoaringPredictor for Merriam Crater

Detailed Predictions for: Merriam Crater
Launch Altitude (f): 6800
LZ Altitude (f): 6000

Sounding
Station:	KFGZ
Date/Time:	11 MAR 2010
Temp/Wind data from:	NOAA Digital Forecast

Time (Local)	High Temp	Puddle Temp	Wind (mph)	Thermal Ceiling (ft)	Soaring Ceiling (ft)	Above Launch (ft)	Thermal Type	Thermal Index (F)
8 AM Thu	30	30	NW 6	8756	7618	818	Blue	7
9 AM Thu	36	37	NW 6	10189	9700	2900	Blue	14
10 AM Thu	39	41	NW 6	11509	10304	3504	Blue	18
11 AM Thu	42	45	NW 7	12714	11691	4891	Blue	22
12 Noon Thu	43	47	NW 7	14073	12143	5343	Blue	24
1 PM Thu	45	49	NW 7	17839	13233	6433	Blue	26
2 PM Thu	44	47	NW 8	14073	12143	5343	Blue	24
3 PM Thu	45	47	NW 8	14073	12143	5343	Blue	24
4 PM Thu	44	45	NW 8	12714	11691	4891	Blue	22
5 PM Thu	43	43	NW 8	11966	10912	4112	Blue	20
6 PM Thu	40	40	NW 8	11039	10168	3368	Blue	17
7 PM Thu	35	35	NW 8	9916	9097	2297	Blue	12
8 PM Thu	33	33	W 6	9352	8737	1937	Blue	10
9 PM Thu	31	31	W 6	8937	7999	1199	Blue	8
10 PM Thu	30	30	W 6	8756	7618	818	Blue	7
11 PM Thu	29	29	SW 4	8408	7367	567	Blue	6
12 Midnight Fri	29	29	SW 4	8408	7367	567	Blue	6
1 AM Fri	28	28	SW 4	8028	7226	426	Blue	5
2 AM Fri	28	28	SW 3	8028	7226	426	Blue	5
3 AM Fri	26	26	SW 3	7375	7149	349	Blue	3
4 AM Fri	25	25	SW 3	7233	7149	349	Blue	2
5 AM Fri	25	25	S 3	7233	7149	349	Blue	2
6 AM Fri	24	24	S 3	7183	7149	349	Blue	1
7 AM Fri	23	23	S 3	0	6800	0	Blue	0
8 AM Fri	32	32	W 3	9118	8374	1574	Blue	9
9 AM Fri	41	42	W 3	11738	10440	3640	Blue	19
10 AM Fri	46	49	W 3	17839	13233	6433	Blue	26
11 AM Fri	50	54	NW 3	20202	20202	13402	White	30
12 Noon Fri	52	57	NW 3	20768	20768	13968	White	33
1 PM Fri	55	60	NW 3	21330	21330	14530	White	36
2 PM Fri	54	58	N 2	20956	20956	14156	White	34
3 PM Fri	55	58	N 2	20956	20956	14156	White	34
4 PM Fri	53	54	N 2	20202	20202	13402	White	30
5 PM Fri	53	53	N 2	20013	19727	12927	White	29
6 PM Fri	48	48	N 2	16323	12540	5740	Blue	25
7 PM Fri	43	43	N 2	11966	10912	4112	Blue	20
8 PM Fri	40	40	E 3	11039	10168	3368	Blue	17
9 PM Fri	37	37	E 3	10189	9700	2900	Blue	14
10 PM Fri	36	36	E 3	10053	9303	2503	Blue	13
11 PM Fri	35	35	S 3	9916	9097	2297	Blue	12
12 Midnight Sat	35	35	S 3	9916	9097	2297	Blue	12
1 AM Sat	34	34	S 3	9754	8917	2117	Blue	11
2 AM Sat	34	34	S 3	9754	8917	2117	Blue	11
3 AM Sat	32	32	S 3	9118	8374	1574	Blue	9
4 AM Sat	31	31	S 3	8937	7999	1199	Blue	8
5 AM Sat	30	30	SW 4	8756	7618	818	Blue	7
6 AM Sat	29	29	SW 4	8408	7367	567	Blue	6
7 AM Sat	28	28	SW 4	8028	7226	426	Blue	5
8 AM Sat	35	35	S 4	9916	9097	2297	Blue	12
9 AM Sat	42	43	S 4	11966	10912	4112	Blue	20
10 AM Sat	47	49	S 4	17839	13233	6433	Blue	26
11 AM Sat	50	53	SE 5	20013	19727	12927	White	29
12 Noon Sat	52	55	SE 5	20391	20391	13591	White	31
1 PM Sat	54	57	SE 5	20768	20768	13968	White	33
2 PM Sat	53	56	S 11	20580	20580	13780	White	32
3 PM Sat	54	56	S 11	20580	20580	13780	White	32
4 PM Sat	53	54	S 11	20202	20202	13402	White	30
5 PM Sat	52	52	SW 17	19820	17266	10466	White	29
6 PM Sat	48	48	SW 17	16323	12540	5740	Blue	25
7 PM Sat	43	43	SW 17	11966	10912	4112	Blue	20
8 PM Sat	41	41	W 14	11509	10304	3504	Blue	18
9 PM Sat	38	38	W 14	10325	9897	3097	Blue	15
10 PM Sat	37	37	W 14	10189	9700	2900	Blue	14
11 PM Sat	36	36	W 8	10053	9303	2503	Blue	13
12 Midnight Sun	36	36	W 8	10053	9303	2503	Blue	13
1 AM Sun	36	36	W 8	10053	9303	2503	Blue	13
2 AM Sun	36	36	W 7	10053	9303	2503	Blue	13
3 AM Sun	33	33	W 7	9352	8737	1937	Blue	10
4 AM Sun	33	33	W 7	9352	8737	1937	Blue	10
5 AM Sun	32	32	W 6	9118	8374	1574	Blue	9
6 AM Sun	31	31	W 6	8937	7999	1199	Blue	8
7 AM Sun	30	30	W 6	8756	7618	818	Blue	7
8 AM Sun	34	34	NW 6	9754	8917	2117	Blue	11
9 AM Sun	38	39	NW 6	10462	10033	3233	Blue	16
10 AM Sun	40	41	NW 6	11509	10304	3504	Blue	18
11 AM Sun	42	44	N 7	12193	11463	4663	Blue	21
12 Noon Sun	43	46	N 7	13414	11917	5117	Blue	23
1 PM Sun	44	47	N 7	14073	12143	5343	Blue	24
2 PM Sun	43	45	N 8	12714	11691	4891	Blue	22
3 PM Sun	44	45	N 8	12714	11691	4891	Blue	22
4 PM Sun	43	44	N 8	12193	11463	4663	Blue	21
5 PM Sun	43	43	N 9	11966	10912	4112	Blue	20
6 PM Sun	40	40	N 9	11039	10168	3368	Blue	17
7 PM Sun	37	37	N 9	10189	9700	2900	Blue	14
8 PM Sun	35	35	N 8	9916	9097	2297	Blue	12
9 PM Sun	34	34	N 8	9754	8917	2117	Blue	11
10 PM Sun	33	33	N 8	9352	8737	1937	Blue	10
11 PM Sun	32	32	NE 7	9118	8374	1574	Blue	9
12 Midnight Mon	32	32	NE 7	9118	8374	1574	Blue	9
1 AM Mon	32	32	NE 7	9118	8374	1574	Blue	9
2 AM Mon	32	32	NE 6	9118	8374	1574	Blue	9
3 AM Mon	30	30	NE 6	8756	7618	818	Blue	7
4 AM Mon	30	30	NE 6	8756	7618	818	Blue	7
5 AM Mon	29	29	NE 6	8408	7367	567	Blue	6
6 AM Mon	28	28	NE 6	8028	7226	426	Blue	5
7 AM Mon	28	28	NE 6	8028	7226	426	Blue	5
8 AM Mon	35	35	NE 6	9916	9097	2297	Blue	12
9 AM Mon	43	44	NE 6	12193	11463	4663	Blue	21
10 AM Mon	48	50	NE 6	19433	13887	7087	White	27
11 AM Mon	51	54	NE 8	20202	20202	13402	White	30
12 Noon Mon	53	57	NE 8	20768	20768	13968	White	33
1 PM Mon	55	59	NE 8	21144	21144	14344	White	35
2 PM Mon	54	57	NE 9	20768	20768	13968	White	33
3 PM Mon	55	57	NE 9	20768	20768	13968	White	33
4 PM Mon	53	54	NE 9	20202	20202	13402	White	30
5 PM Mon	53	53	NE 10	20013	19727	12927	White	29
6 PM Mon	48	48	NE 10	16323	12540	5740	Blue	25
7 PM Mon	43	43	NE 10	11966	10912	4112	Blue	20
8 PM Mon	40	40	NE 8	11039	10168	3368	Blue	17
9 PM Mon	37	37	NE 8	10189	9700	2900	Blue	14
10 PM Mon	36	36	NE 8	10053	9303	2503	Blue	13
11 PM Mon	35	35	E 6	9916	9097	2297	Blue	12
12 Midnight Tue	35	35	E 6	9916	9097	2297	Blue	12
1 AM Tue	34	34	E 6	9754	8917	2117	Blue	11
2 AM Tue	34	34	E 4	9754	8917	2117	Blue	11
3 AM Tue	32	32	E 4	9118	8374	1574	Blue	9
4 AM Tue	31	31	E 4	8937	7999	1199	Blue	8
5 AM Tue	30	30	E 3	8756	7618	818	Blue	7
6 AM Tue	29	29	E 3	8408	7367	567	Blue	6
7 AM Tue	28	28	E 3	8028	7226	426	Blue	5
8 AM Tue	36	36	E 4	10053	9303	2503	Blue	13
9 AM Tue	45	46	E 4	13414	11917	5117	Blue	23
10 AM Tue	50	53	E 4	20013	19727	12927	White	29
11 AM Tue	54	58	E 6	20956	20956	14156	White	34
12 Noon Tue	56	61	E 6	21515	21515	14715	White	37
1 PM Tue	58	63	E 6	21885	21885	15085	White	39
2 PM Tue	57	61	E 8	21515	21515	14715	White	37
3 PM Tue	58	61	E 8	21515	21515	14715	White	37
4 PM Tue	56	57	E 8	20768	20768	13968	White	33
5 PM Tue	56	56	NE 9	20580	20580	13780	White	32
6 PM Tue	51	51	NE 9	19626	15597	8797	White	28
7 PM Tue	45	45	NE 9	12714	11691	4891	Blue	22
8 PM Tue	42	42	E 8	11738	10440	3640	Blue	19
9 PM Tue	40	40	E 8	11039	10168	3368	Blue	17
10 PM Tue	39	39	E 8	10462	10033	3233	Blue	16
11 PM Tue	37	37	E 7	10189	9700	2900	Blue	14
12 Midnight Wed	38	38	E 7	10325	9897	3097	Blue	15
1 AM Wed	37	37	E 7	10189	9700	2900	Blue	14
2 AM Wed	37	37	SE 5	10189	9700	2900	Blue	14
3 AM Wed	34	34	SE 5	9754	8917	2117	Blue	11
4 AM Wed	33	33	SE 5	9352	8737	1937	Blue	10
5 AM Wed	32	32	SE 5	9118	8374	1574	Blue	9
6 AM Wed	31	31	SE 5	8937	7999	1199	Blue	8
7 AM Wed	30	30	SE 5	8756	7618	818	Blue	7

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only. No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates. These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying. Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released. If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid. Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST). If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level. We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes. Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate. Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink. It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website. Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature.

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun. When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air. The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals. A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable. Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates.

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com