Detailed Predictions for: Aubrey Cliffs
Launch Altitude (f): 6150
LZ Altitude (f): 5400
Sounding

Station:

 KFGZ

Date/Time:

 3 SEP 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
6 AM Fri 53 53 SE 5 7206 7165 1015 Blue 4
7 AM Fri 52 52 SE 5 7193 7151 1001 Blue 3
8 AM Fri 50 51 SE 5 7179 7149 999 Blue 2
9 AM Fri 58 60 E 5 7282 7256 1106 Blue 11
10 AM Fri 67 71 E 5 7376 7350 1200 Blue 22
11 AM Fri 72 78 E 5 7479 7428 1278 Blue 29
12 Noon Fri 76 81 SE 8 7751 7478 1328 Blue 32
1 PM Fri 80 85 SE 8 16746 7920 1770 White 36
2 PM Fri 82 87 SE 8 17166 9811 3661 White 38
3 PM Fri 82 86 SW 9 16957 8258 2108 White 37
4 PM Fri 83 85 SW 9 16746 7920 1770 White 36
5 PM Fri 82 83 SW 9 8413 7577 1427 Blue 34
6 PM Fri 83 83 SW 9 8413 7577 1427 Blue 34
7 PM Fri 86 86 SW 9 16957 8258 2108 White 37
8 PM Fri 85 85 SW 9 16746 7920 1770 White 36
9 PM Fri 80 80 S 5 7583 7461 1311 Blue 31
10 PM Fri 73 73 S 5 7395 7367 1217 Blue 24
11 PM Fri 69 69 S 5 7359 7333 1183 Blue 20
12 Midnight Sat 67 67 SW 3 7342 7316 1166 Blue 18
1 AM Sat 64 64 SW 3 7316 7290 1140 Blue 15
2 AM Sat 63 63 SW 3 7308 7282 1132 Blue 14
3 AM Sat 60 60 SW 3 7282 7256 1106 Blue 11
4 AM Sat 57 57 SW 3 7257 7219 1069 Blue 8
5 AM Sat 56 56 SW 3 7247 7205 1055 Blue 7
6 AM Sat 56 56 S 2 7247 7205 1055 Blue 7
7 AM Sat 55 55 S 2 7233 7192 1042 Blue 6
8 AM Sat 53 54 S 2 7220 7178 1028 Blue 5
9 AM Sat 61 63 S 2 7308 7282 1132 Blue 14
10 AM Sat 69 73 S 2 7395 7367 1217 Blue 24
11 AM Sat 74 80 S 2 7583 7461 1311 Blue 31
12 Noon Sat 78 84 SW 10 9993 7739 1589 Blue 35
1 PM Sat 82 88 SW 10 17369 17071 10921 White 39
2 PM Sat 84 90 SW 10 17773 17520 11370 White 41
3 PM Sat 84 88 SW 13 17369 17071 10921 White 39
4 PM Sat 85 88 SW 13 17369 17071 10921 White 39
5 PM Sat 84 85 SW 13 16746 7920 1770 White 36
6 PM Sat 85 85 SW 12 16746 7920 1770 White 36
7 PM Sat 88 88 SW 12 17369 17071 10921 White 39
8 PM Sat 87 87 SW 12 17166 9811 3661 White 38
9 PM Sat 82 82 SW 7 7933 7495 1345 Blue 33
10 PM Sat 76 76 SW 7 7445 7394 1244 Blue 27
11 PM Sat 72 72 SW 7 7385 7359 1209 Blue 23
12 Midnight Sun 70 70 S 3 7368 7342 1192 Blue 21
1 AM Sun 67 67 S 3 7342 7316 1166 Blue 18
2 AM Sun 66 66 S 3 7334 7307 1157 Blue 17
3 AM Sun 64 64 S 3 7316 7290 1140 Blue 15
4 AM Sun 61 61 S 3 7291 7265 1115 Blue 12
5 AM Sun 59 59 S 3 7274 7246 1096 Blue 10
6 AM Sun 60 60 SE 3 7282 7256 1106 Blue 11
7 AM Sun 58 58 SE 3 7265 7232 1082 Blue 9
8 AM Sun 57 58 SE 3 7265 7232 1082 Blue 9
9 AM Sun 63 65 S 8 7325 7299 1149 Blue 16
10 AM Sun 70 74 S 8 7412 7376 1226 Blue 25
11 AM Sun 74 79 S 8 7496 7444 1294 Blue 30
12 Noon Sun 77 84 SW 21 9993 7739 1589 Blue 35
1 PM Sun 80 87 SW 21 17166 9811 3661 White 38
2 PM Sun 82 88 SW 21 17369 17071 10921 White 39
3 PM Sun 82 87 SW 22 17166 9811 3661 White 38
4 PM Sun 82 85 SW 22 16746 7920 1770 White 36
5 PM Sun 82 83 SW 22 8413 7577 1427 Blue 34
6 PM Sun 83 83 SW 22 8413 7577 1427 Blue 34
7 PM Sun 85 85 SW 22 16746 7920 1770 White 36
8 PM Sun 83 83 SW 22 8413 7577 1427 Blue 34
9 PM Sun 78 78 SW 17 7479 7428 1278 Blue 29
10 PM Sun 71 71 SW 17 7376 7350 1200 Blue 22
11 PM Sun 67 67 SW 17 7342 7316 1166 Blue 18
12 Midnight Mon 65 65 S 12 7325 7299 1149 Blue 16
1 AM Mon 61 61 S 12 7291 7265 1115 Blue 12
2 AM Mon 61 61 S 12 7291 7265 1115 Blue 12
3 AM Mon 58 58 S 8 7265 7232 1082 Blue 9
4 AM Mon 54 54 S 8 7220 7178 1028 Blue 5
5 AM Mon 53 53 S 8 7206 7165 1015 Blue 4
6 AM Mon 53 53 S 3 7206 7165 1015 Blue 4
7 AM Mon 52 52 S 3 7193 7151 1001 Blue 3
8 AM Mon 50 51 S 3 7179 7149 999 Blue 2
9 AM Mon 57 59 S 8 7274 7246 1096 Blue 10
10 AM Mon 65 69 S 8 7359 7333 1183 Blue 20
11 AM Mon 70 75 S 8 7429 7384 1234 Blue 26
12 Noon Mon 74 81 S 8 7751 7478 1328 Blue 32
1 PM Mon 78 85 S 8 16746 7920 1770 White 36
2 PM Mon 79 85 S 8 16746 7920 1770 White 36
3 PM Mon 79 84 SW 13 9993 7739 1589 Blue 35
4 PM Mon 80 83 SW 13 8413 7577 1427 Blue 34
5 PM Mon 79 80 SW 13 7583 7461 1311 Blue 31
6 PM Mon 80 80 SW 13 7583 7461 1311 Blue 31
7 PM Mon 83 83 SW 13 8413 7577 1427 Blue 34
8 PM Mon 81 81 SW 13 7751 7478 1328 Blue 32
9 PM Mon 75 75 S 8 7429 7384 1234 Blue 26
10 PM Mon 68 68 S 8 7351 7325 1175 Blue 19
11 PM Mon 63 63 S 8 7308 7282 1132 Blue 14
12 Midnight Tue 61 61 S 5 7291 7265 1115 Blue 12
1 AM Tue 57 57 S 5 7257 7219 1069 Blue 8
2 AM Tue 56 56 S 5 7247 7205 1055 Blue 7
3 AM Tue 53 53 SE 5 7206 7165 1015 Blue 4
4 AM Tue 49 49 SE 5 7152 7149 999 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 47 47 SE 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 48 48 SE 2 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 46 46 SE 2 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 44 45 SE 2 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 52 54 SE 7 7220 7178 1028 Blue 5
10 AM Tue 61 65 SE 7 7325 7299 1149 Blue 16
11 AM Tue 66 71 SE 7 7376 7350 1200 Blue 22
12 Noon Tue 71 77 S 13 7462 7411 1261 Blue 28
1 PM Tue 75 81 S 13 7751 7478 1328 Blue 32
2 PM Tue 76 81 S 13 7751 7478 1328 Blue 32
3 PM Tue 77 81 S 15 7751 7478 1328 Blue 32
4 PM Tue 78 80 S 15 7583 7461 1311 Blue 31
5 PM Tue 77 78 S 15 7479 7428 1278 Blue 29
6 PM Tue 78 78 S 15 7479 7428 1278 Blue 29
7 PM Tue 81 81 S 15 7751 7478 1328 Blue 32
8 PM Tue 79 79 S 15 7496 7444 1294 Blue 30
9 PM Tue 74 74 S 9 7412 7376 1226 Blue 25
10 PM Tue 67 67 S 9 7342 7316 1166 Blue 18
11 PM Tue 62 62 S 9 7299 7273 1123 Blue 13
12 Midnight Wed 60 60 S 7 7282 7256 1106 Blue 11
1 AM Wed 56 56 S 7 7247 7205 1055 Blue 7
2 AM Wed 55 55 S 7 7233 7192 1042 Blue 6
3 AM Wed 52 52 SE 3 7193 7151 1001 Blue 3
4 AM Wed 49 49 SE 3 7152 7149 999 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 47 47 SE 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 48 48 SE 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 46 46 SE 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 44 45 SE 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 52 54 SE 8 7220 7178 1028 Blue 5
10 AM Wed 60 64 SE 8 7316 7290 1140 Blue 15
11 AM Wed 65 70 SE 8 7368 7342 1192 Blue 21
12 Noon Wed 69 75 S 16 7429 7384 1234 Blue 26
1 PM Wed 73 79 S 16 7496 7444 1294 Blue 30
2 PM Wed 75 80 S 16 7583 7461 1311 Blue 31
3 PM Wed 75 79 S 18 7496 7444 1294 Blue 30
4 PM Wed 76 78 S 18 7479 7428 1278 Blue 29
5 PM Wed 75 76 S 18 7445 7394 1244 Blue 27
6 PM Wed 76 76 S 18 7445 7394 1244 Blue 27
7 PM Wed 79 79 S 18 7496 7444 1294 Blue 30
8 PM Wed 77 77 S 18 7462 7411 1261 Blue 28
9 PM Wed 72 72 S 13 7385 7359 1209 Blue 23
10 PM Wed 66 66 S 13 7334 7307 1157 Blue 17
11 PM Wed 62 62 S 13 7299 7273 1123 Blue 13
12 Midnight Thu 60 60 S 7 7282 7256 1106 Blue 11
1 AM Thu 56 56 S 7 7247 7205 1055 Blue 7
2 AM Thu 55 55 S 7 7233 7192 1042 Blue 6
3 AM Thu 53 53 SE 5 7206 7165 1015 Blue 4
4 AM Thu 49 49 SE 5 7152 7149 999 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 48 48 SE 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com