Detailed Predictions for: Aubrey Cliffs
Launch Altitude (f): 6150
LZ Altitude (f): 5400
Sounding

Station:

 KFGZ

Date/Time:

 4 FEB 2012

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
5 AM Sat 20 20 E 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 20 20 E 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 20 20 E 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 23 23 NE 9 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 31 31 NE 9 5710 6150 0 White 0
10 AM Sat 39 40 NE 9 6350 6350 200 White 0
11 AM Sat 41 43 NE 14 7002 7002 852 White 0
12 Noon Sat 42 45 NE 14 7438 7438 1288 White 13
1 PM Sat 45 48 NE 14 8087 8087 1937 White 16
2 PM Sat 47 49 NE 16 8302 8302 2152 White 17
3 PM Sat 48 49 NE 16 8302 8302 2152 White 17
4 PM Sat 48 48 NE 16 8087 8087 1937 White 16
5 PM Sat 47 47 E 15 7870 7870 1720 White 15
6 PM Sat 43 43 E 15 7002 7002 852 White 0
7 PM Sat 37 37 E 15 5710 6150 0 White 0
8 PM Sat 34 34 E 10 5710 6150 0 White 0
9 PM Sat 31 31 E 10 5710 6150 0 White 0
10 PM Sat 31 31 E 10 5710 6150 0 White 0
11 PM Sat 29 29 NE 5 5710 6150 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sun 28 28 NE 5 5710 6150 0 White 0
1 AM Sun 25 25 NE 5 5710 6150 0 White 0
2 AM Sun 24 24 NE 3 5710 6150 0 White 0
3 AM Sun 22 22 NE 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 22 22 NE 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 20 20 NE 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 20 20 NE 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 21 21 NE 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 24 24 NE 8 5710 6150 0 White 0
9 AM Sun 33 33 NE 8 5710 6150 0 White 0
10 AM Sun 42 43 NE 8 7002 7002 852 White 0
11 AM Sun 45 47 NE 12 7870 7870 1720 White 15
12 Noon Sun 46 48 NE 12 8087 8087 1937 White 16
1 PM Sun 49 51 NE 12 8732 8732 2582 White 19
2 PM Sun 52 54 NE 12 9372 9372 3222 White 22
3 PM Sun 53 54 NE 12 9372 9372 3222 White 22
4 PM Sun 53 53 NE 12 9160 9160 3010 White 21
5 PM Sun 52 52 NE 10 8947 8947 2797 White 20
6 PM Sun 48 48 NE 10 8087 8087 1937 White 16
7 PM Sun 41 41 NE 10 6568 6568 418 White 0
8 PM Sun 38 38 E 5 5914 6150 0 White 0
9 PM Sun 34 34 E 5 5710 6150 0 White 0
10 PM Sun 34 34 E 5 5710 6150 0 White 0
11 PM Sun 32 32 E 2 5710 6150 0 White 0
12 Midnight Mon 31 31 E 2 5710 6150 0 White 0
1 AM Mon 28 28 E 2 5710 6150 0 White 0
2 AM Mon 26 26 E 3 5710 6150 0 White 0
3 AM Mon 25 25 E 3 5710 6150 0 White 0
4 AM Mon 24 24 E 3 5710 6150 0 White 0
5 AM Mon 22 22 E 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 22 22 E 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 23 23 E 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 26 26 E 6 5710 6150 0 White 0
9 AM Mon 35 35 E 6 5710 6150 0 White 0
10 AM Mon 44 45 E 6 7438 7438 1288 White 13
11 AM Mon 46 47 E 5 7870 7870 1720 White 15
12 Noon Mon 48 50 E 5 8517 8517 2367 White 18
1 PM Mon 50 52 E 5 8947 8947 2797 White 20
2 PM Mon 53 55 N 3 9585 9585 3435 White 23
3 PM Mon 54 55 N 3 9585 9585 3435 White 23
4 PM Mon 54 54 N 3 9372 9372 3222 White 22
5 PM Mon 53 53 NW 3 9160 9160 3010 White 21
6 PM Mon 49 49 NW 3 8302 8302 2152 White 17
7 PM Mon 42 42 NW 3 6785 6785 635 White 0
8 PM Mon 38 38 N 7 5914 6150 0 White 0
9 PM Mon 34 34 N 7 5710 6150 0 White 0
10 PM Mon 34 34 N 7 5710 6150 0 White 0
11 PM Mon 33 33 E 10 5710 6150 0 White 0
12 Midnight Tue 31 31 E 10 5710 6150 0 White 0
1 AM Tue 28 28 E 10 5710 6150 0 White 0
2 AM Tue 27 27 E 12 5710 6150 0 White 0
3 AM Tue 25 25 E 12 5710 6150 0 White 0
4 AM Tue 24 24 E 12 5710 6150 0 White 0
5 AM Tue 23 23 E 12 0 6150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 22 22 E 12 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 23 23 E 12 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 26 26 E 12 5710 6150 0 White 0
9 AM Tue 36 36 E 12 5710 6150 0 White 0
10 AM Tue 45 45 E 12 7438 7438 1288 White 13
11 AM Tue 47 48 SE 10 8087 8087 1937 White 16
12 Noon Tue 49 50 SE 10 8517 8517 2367 White 18
1 PM Tue 52 53 SE 10 9160 9160 3010 White 21
2 PM Tue 55 56 S 9 9800 9800 3650 White 24
3 PM Tue 56 57 S 9 10028 10028 3878 White 25
4 PM Tue 56 56 S 9 9800 9800 3650 White 24
5 PM Tue 55 55 S 8 9585 9585 3435 White 23
6 PM Tue 51 51 S 8 8732 8732 2582 White 19
7 PM Tue 45 45 S 8 7438 7438 1288 White 13
8 PM Tue 41 41 S 8 6568 6568 418 White 0
9 PM Tue 38 38 S 8 5914 6150 0 White 0
10 PM Tue 38 38 S 8 5914 6150 0 White 0
11 PM Tue 36 36 SE 7 5710 6150 0 White 0
12 Midnight Wed 35 35 SE 7 5710 6150 0 White 0
1 AM Wed 32 32 SE 7 5710 6150 0 White 0
2 AM Wed 31 31 E 7 5710 6150 0 White 0
3 AM Wed 29 29 E 7 5710 6150 0 White 0
4 AM Wed 28 28 E 7 5710 6150 0 White 0
5 AM Wed 27 27 NE 8 5710 6150 0 White 0
6 AM Wed 26 26 NE 8 5710 6150 0 White 0
7 AM Wed 27 27 NE 8 5710 6150 0 White 0
8 AM Wed 29 29 NE 10 5710 6150 0 White 0
9 AM Wed 37 37 NE 10 5710 6150 0 White 0
10 AM Wed 45 45 NE 10 7438 7438 1288 White 13
11 AM Wed 47 48 NE 14 8087 8087 1937 White 16
12 Noon Wed 48 49 NE 14 8302 8302 2152 White 17
1 PM Wed 51 52 NE 14 8947 8947 2797 White 20
2 PM Wed 53 54 NE 17 9372 9372 3222 White 22
3 PM Wed 54 55 NE 17 9585 9585 3435 White 23
4 PM Wed 54 54 NE 17 9372 9372 3222 White 22
5 PM Wed 53 53 NE 18 9160 9160 3010 White 21
6 PM Wed 50 50 NE 18 8517 8517 2367 White 18
7 PM Wed 45 45 NE 18 7438 7438 1288 White 13
8 PM Wed 42 42 NE 17 6785 6785 635 White 0
9 PM Wed 39 39 NE 17 6132 6150 0 White 0
10 PM Wed 39 39 NE 17 6132 6150 0 White 0
11 PM Wed 38 38 NE 16 5914 6150 0 White 0
12 Midnight Thu 37 37 NE 16 5710 6150 0 White 0
1 AM Thu 35 35 NE 16 5710 6150 0 White 0
2 AM Thu 33 33 NE 14 5710 6150 0 White 0
3 AM Thu 32 32 NE 14 5710 6150 0 White 0
4 AM Thu 31 31 NE 14 5710 6150 0 White 0
5 AM Thu 30 30 NE 12 5710 6150 0 White 0
6 AM Thu 30 30 NE 12 5710 6150 0 White 0
7 AM Thu 30 30 NE 12 5710 6150 0 White 0
8 AM Thu 32 32 NE 12 5710 6150 0 White 0
9 AM Thu 37 37 NE 12 5710 6150 0 White 0
10 AM Thu 42 42 NE 12 6785 6785 635 White 0
11 AM Thu 43 44 NE 13 7219 7219 1069 White 12
12 Noon Thu 44 45 NE 13 7438 7438 1288 White 13
1 PM Thu 46 47 NE 13 7870 7870 1720 White 15
2 PM Thu 47 48 NE 14 8087 8087 1937 White 16
3 PM Thu 48 49 NE 14 8302 8302 2152 White 17
4 PM Thu 48 48 NE 14 8087 8087 1937 White 16
5 PM Thu 47 47 NE 14 7870 7870 1720 White 15
6 PM Thu 44 44 NE 14 7219 7219 1069 White 12
7 PM Thu 39 39 NE 14 6132 6150 0 White 0
8 PM Thu 36 36 NE 13 5710 6150 0 White 0
9 PM Thu 33 33 NE 13 5710 6150 0 White 0
10 PM Thu 34 34 NE 13 5710 6150 0 White 0
11 PM Thu 32 32 NE 10 5710 6150 0 White 0
12 Midnight Fri 31 31 NE 10 5710 6150 0 White 0
1 AM Fri 29 29 NE 10 5710 6150 0 White 0
2 AM Fri 28 28 NE 8 5710 6150 0 White 0
3 AM Fri 26 26 NE 8 5710 6150 0 White 0
4 AM Fri 26 26 NE 8 5710 6150 0 White 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com