Detailed Predictions for: Aubrey Cliffs
Launch Altitude (f): 6150
LZ Altitude (f): 5400
Sounding

Station:

 KFGZ

Date/Time:

 15 MAR 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
6 AM Mon 24 24 NE 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 27 27 NE 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 31 31 NE 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 37 38 NE 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 43 46 NE 6 10429 8316 2166 Blue 8
11 AM Mon 45 49 NE 6 10661 10414 4264 Blue 11
12 Noon Mon 46 51 NE 10 11175 10571 4421 Blue 13
1 PM Mon 52 57 NE 10 12843 11619 5469 Blue 19
2 PM Mon 55 59 NE 10 14241 12062 5912 White 21
3 PM Mon 56 59 NE 8 14241 12062 5912 White 21
4 PM Mon 56 58 NE 8 14034 11691 5541 White 20
5 PM Mon 54 54 NE 8 11633 11119 4969 Blue 16
6 PM Mon 54 54 NE 10 11633 11119 4969 Blue 16
7 PM Mon 50 50 NE 10 10867 10495 4345 Blue 12
8 PM Mon 45 45 NE 10 10079 8186 2036 Blue 7
9 PM Mon 42 42 E 5 8197 7201 1051 Blue 4
10 PM Mon 40 40 E 5 7265 7149 999 Blue 2
11 PM Mon 36 36 E 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 33 33 E 4 0 6150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 32 32 E 4 0 6150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 29 29 E 4 0 6150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 29 29 E 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 29 29 E 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 27 27 E 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 26 26 E 4 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 29 29 E 4 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 34 34 E 4 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 40 41 E 4 8067 7149 999 Blue 3
10 AM Tue 46 49 E 4 10661 10414 4264 Blue 11
11 AM Tue 49 53 E 4 11562 10814 4664 Blue 15
12 Noon Tue 50 55 NE 6 11705 11421 5271 Blue 17
1 PM Tue 56 61 NE 6 14656 14656 8506 White 23
2 PM Tue 60 64 NE 6 15272 14907 8757 White 25
3 PM Tue 61 64 E 5 15272 14907 8757 White 25
4 PM Tue 61 63 E 5 15066 14807 8657 White 25
5 PM Tue 59 59 E 5 14241 12062 5912 White 21
6 PM Tue 59 59 NE 4 14241 12062 5912 White 21
7 PM Tue 55 55 NE 4 11705 11421 5271 Blue 17
8 PM Tue 50 50 NE 4 10867 10495 4345 Blue 12
9 PM Tue 47 47 E 5 10507 9685 3535 Blue 9
10 PM Tue 44 44 E 5 9731 8056 1906 Blue 6
11 PM Tue 40 40 E 5 7265 7149 999 Blue 2
12 Midnight Wed 37 37 E 4 0 6150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 36 36 E 4 0 6150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 33 33 E 4 0 6150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 33 33 SE 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 33 33 SE 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 31 31 SE 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 30 30 SE 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 33 33 SE 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 38 38 SE 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 43 44 E 3 9731 8056 1906 Blue 6
10 AM Wed 50 52 E 3 11480 10648 4498 Blue 14
11 AM Wed 53 56 E 3 12205 11547 5397 Blue 18
12 Noon Wed 53 57 NE 3 12843 11619 5469 Blue 19
1 PM Wed 59 63 NE 3 15066 14807 8657 White 25
2 PM Wed 63 66 NE 3 15678 15303 9153 White 27
3 PM Wed 64 66 N 4 15678 15303 9153 White 27
4 PM Wed 64 65 N 4 15475 15105 8955 White 26
5 PM Wed 62 62 N 4 14861 14766 8616 White 24
6 PM Wed 62 62 NW 4 14861 14766 8616 White 24
7 PM Wed 57 57 NW 4 12843 11619 5469 Blue 19
8 PM Wed 52 52 NW 4 11480 10648 4498 Blue 14
9 PM Wed 49 49 N 4 10661 10414 4264 Blue 11
10 PM Wed 45 45 N 4 10079 8186 2036 Blue 7
11 PM Wed 41 41 N 4 8067 7149 999 Blue 3
12 Midnight Thu 38 38 NE 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 36 36 NE 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 34 34 NE 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 33 33 E 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 33 33 E 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 31 31 E 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 30 30 E 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 33 33 E 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 37 37 E 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 42 43 SE 5 8328 7262 1112 Blue 5
10 AM Thu 48 50 SE 5 10867 10495 4345 Blue 12
11 AM Thu 51 54 SE 5 11633 11119 4969 Blue 16
12 Noon Thu 51 55 SW 8 11705 11421 5271 Blue 17
1 PM Thu 57 61 SW 8 14656 14656 8506 White 23
2 PM Thu 60 63 SW 8 15066 14807 8657 White 25
3 PM Thu 61 63 W 10 15066 14807 8657 White 25
4 PM Thu 61 62 W 10 14861 14766 8616 White 24
5 PM Thu 59 59 W 10 14241 12062 5912 White 21
6 PM Thu 59 59 W 10 14241 12062 5912 White 21
7 PM Thu 55 55 W 10 11705 11421 5271 Blue 17
8 PM Thu 50 50 W 10 10867 10495 4345 Blue 12
9 PM Thu 47 47 W 9 10507 9685 3535 Blue 9
10 PM Thu 43 43 W 9 8328 7262 1112 Blue 5
11 PM Thu 39 39 W 9 7204 7149 999 Blue 1
12 Midnight Fri 36 36 NW 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 35 35 NW 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 33 33 NW 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 32 32 NW 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 32 32 NW 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 30 30 NW 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 29 29 NW 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 31 31 NW 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 36 36 NW 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 41 42 NW 7 8197 7201 1051 Blue 4
10 AM Fri 46 48 NW 7 10584 10028 3878 Blue 10
11 AM Fri 48 51 NW 7 11175 10571 4421 Blue 13
12 Noon Fri 49 52 NW 9 11480 10648 4498 Blue 14
1 PM Fri 54 58 NW 9 14034 11691 5541 White 20
2 PM Fri 57 60 NW 9 14448 12693 6543 White 22
3 PM Fri 58 60 NW 9 14448 12693 6543 White 22
4 PM Fri 58 59 NW 9 14241 12062 5912 White 21
5 PM Fri 56 56 NW 9 12205 11547 5397 Blue 18
6 PM Fri 56 56 NW 9 12205 11547 5397 Blue 18
7 PM Fri 52 52 NW 9 11480 10648 4498 Blue 14
8 PM Fri 47 47 NW 9 10507 9685 3535 Blue 9
9 PM Fri 44 44 N 8 9731 8056 1906 Blue 6
10 PM Fri 40 40 N 8 7265 7149 999 Blue 2
11 PM Fri 36 36 N 8 0 6150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 33 33 N 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 32 32 N 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 30 30 N 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 29 29 NE 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 29 29 NE 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 27 27 NE 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 26 26 NE 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 28 28 NE 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 33 33 NE 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 38 39 NE 7 7204 7149 999 Blue 1
10 AM Sat 43 45 NE 7 10079 8186 2036 Blue 7
11 AM Sat 46 49 NE 7 10661 10414 4264 Blue 11
12 Noon Sat 46 50 N 9 10867 10495 4345 Blue 12
1 PM Sat 52 56 N 9 12205 11547 5397 Blue 18
2 PM Sat 55 58 N 9 14034 11691 5541 White 20
3 PM Sat 56 58 N 10 14034 11691 5541 White 20
4 PM Sat 56 57 N 10 12843 11619 5469 Blue 19
5 PM Sat 54 54 N 10 11633 11119 4969 Blue 16
6 PM Sat 54 54 N 10 11633 11119 4969 Blue 16
7 PM Sat 50 50 N 10 10867 10495 4345 Blue 12
8 PM Sat 45 45 N 10 10079 8186 2036 Blue 7
9 PM Sat 42 42 N 9 8197 7201 1051 Blue 4
10 PM Sat 38 38 N 9 0 6150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 34 34 N 9 0 6150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 31 31 NE 8 0 6150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 30 30 NE 8 0 6150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 28 28 NE 8 0 6150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 27 27 NE 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 27 27 NE 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 25 25 NE 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com