Detailed Predictions for: Aubrey Cliffs
Launch Altitude (f): 6150
LZ Altitude (f): 5400
Sounding

Station:

 KFGZ

Date/Time:

 10 MAR 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
8 AM Wed 31 31 SW 5 5710 6150 0 White 0
9 AM Wed 35 35 SW 5 5710 6150 0 White 0
10 AM Wed 35 36 SW 5 5710 6150 0 White 0
11 AM Wed 37 38 W 10 5710 6150 0 White 0
12 Noon Wed 38 40 W 10 5710 6150 0 White 0
1 PM Wed 39 41 W 10 5710 6150 0 White 0
2 PM Wed 40 42 W 13 5710 6150 0 White 0
3 PM Wed 40 41 W 13 5710 6150 0 White 0
4 PM Wed 39 39 W 13 5710 6150 0 White 0
5 PM Wed 40 40 W 13 5710 6150 0 White 0
6 PM Wed 38 38 W 13 5710 6150 0 White 0
7 PM Wed 35 35 W 13 5710 6150 0 White 0
8 PM Wed 33 33 W 7 5710 6150 0 White 0
9 PM Wed 31 31 W 7 5710 6150 0 White 0
10 PM Wed 30 30 W 7 5710 6150 0 White 0
11 PM Wed 29 29 NW 4 5710 6150 0 White 0
12 Midnight Thu 28 28 NW 4 5710 6150 0 White 0
1 AM Thu 28 28 NW 4 5710 6150 0 White 0
2 AM Thu 27 27 NW 5 5710 6150 0 White 0
3 AM Thu 27 27 NW 5 5710 6150 0 White 0
4 AM Thu 26 26 NW 5 5710 6150 0 White 0
5 AM Thu 25 25 N 8 0 6150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 26 26 N 8 5710 6150 0 White 0
7 AM Thu 28 28 N 8 5710 6150 0 White 0
8 AM Thu 31 31 N 9 5710 6150 0 White 0
9 AM Thu 39 40 N 9 5710 6150 0 White 0
10 AM Thu 40 42 N 9 5710 6150 0 White 0
11 AM Thu 43 46 N 7 6363 6363 213 White 0
12 Noon Thu 47 51 N 7 7452 7452 1302 White 18
1 PM Thu 48 52 N 7 7667 7667 1517 White 19
2 PM Thu 49 52 N 8 7667 7667 1517 White 19
3 PM Thu 50 52 N 8 7667 7667 1517 White 19
4 PM Thu 49 50 N 8 7236 7236 1086 White 17
5 PM Thu 50 50 N 8 7236 7236 1086 White 17
6 PM Thu 46 46 N 8 6363 6363 213 White 0
7 PM Thu 42 42 N 8 5710 6150 0 White 0
8 PM Thu 39 39 E 1 5710 6150 0 White 0
9 PM Thu 36 36 E 1 5710 6150 0 White 0
10 PM Thu 33 33 E 1 5710 6150 0 White 0
11 PM Thu 32 32 E 1 5710 6150 0 White 0
12 Midnight Fri 31 31 E 1 5710 6150 0 White 0
1 AM Fri 30 30 E 1 5710 6150 0 White 0
2 AM Fri 29 29 NE 2 5710 6150 0 White 0
3 AM Fri 29 29 NE 2 5710 6150 0 White 0
4 AM Fri 27 27 NE 2 5710 6150 0 White 0
5 AM Fri 26 26 E 5 5710 6150 0 White 0
6 AM Fri 27 27 E 5 5710 6150 0 White 0
7 AM Fri 30 30 E 5 5710 6150 0 White 0
8 AM Fri 34 34 SE 8 5710 6150 0 White 0
9 AM Fri 44 45 SE 8 6144 6150 0 White 0
10 AM Fri 45 48 SE 8 6800 6800 650 White 0
11 AM Fri 49 53 S 10 7882 7882 1732 White 20
12 Noon Fri 54 59 S 10 9160 9160 3010 White 26
1 PM Fri 56 61 S 10 9583 9583 3433 White 28
2 PM Fri 57 61 SW 10 9583 9583 3433 White 28
3 PM Fri 58 61 SW 10 9583 9583 3433 White 28
4 PM Fri 56 57 SW 10 8735 8735 2585 White 24
5 PM Fri 58 58 SW 9 8947 8947 2797 White 25
6 PM Fri 53 53 SW 9 7882 7882 1732 White 20
7 PM Fri 48 48 SW 9 6800 6800 650 White 0
8 PM Fri 45 45 SW 8 6144 6150 0 White 0
9 PM Fri 42 42 SW 8 5710 6150 0 White 0
10 PM Fri 38 38 SW 8 5710 6150 0 White 0
11 PM Fri 36 36 SW 7 5710 6150 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sat 35 35 SW 7 5710 6150 0 White 0
1 AM Sat 34 34 SW 7 5710 6150 0 White 0
2 AM Sat 33 33 S 6 5710 6150 0 White 0
3 AM Sat 33 33 S 6 5710 6150 0 White 0
4 AM Sat 31 31 S 6 5710 6150 0 White 0
5 AM Sat 29 29 S 6 5710 6150 0 White 0
6 AM Sat 30 30 S 6 5710 6150 0 White 0
7 AM Sat 32 32 S 6 5710 6150 0 White 0
8 AM Sat 36 36 SW 9 5710 6150 0 White 0
9 AM Sat 44 45 SW 9 6144 6150 0 White 0
10 AM Sat 44 46 SW 9 6363 6363 213 White 0
11 AM Sat 47 50 W 11 7236 7236 1086 White 17
12 Noon Sat 52 55 W 11 8310 8310 2160 White 22
1 PM Sat 53 56 W 11 8522 8522 2372 White 23
2 PM Sat 54 57 W 12 8735 8735 2585 White 24
3 PM Sat 55 57 W 12 8735 8735 2585 White 24
4 PM Sat 53 54 W 12 8096 8096 1946 White 21
5 PM Sat 55 55 W 10 8310 8310 2160 White 22
6 PM Sat 51 51 W 10 7452 7452 1302 White 18
7 PM Sat 46 46 W 10 6363 6363 213 White 0
8 PM Sat 44 44 W 8 5924 6150 0 White 0
9 PM Sat 41 41 W 8 5710 6150 0 White 0
10 PM Sat 38 38 W 8 5710 6150 0 White 0
11 PM Sat 36 36 NW 7 5710 6150 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sun 35 35 NW 7 5710 6150 0 White 0
1 AM Sun 34 34 NW 7 5710 6150 0 White 0
2 AM Sun 33 33 N 6 5710 6150 0 White 0
3 AM Sun 33 33 N 6 5710 6150 0 White 0
4 AM Sun 31 31 N 6 5710 6150 0 White 0
5 AM Sun 30 30 N 6 5710 6150 0 White 0
6 AM Sun 31 31 N 6 5710 6150 0 White 0
7 AM Sun 32 32 N 6 5710 6150 0 White 0
8 AM Sun 35 35 N 8 5710 6150 0 White 0
9 AM Sun 41 42 N 8 5710 6150 0 White 0
10 AM Sun 41 43 N 8 5710 6150 0 White 0
11 AM Sun 44 47 N 10 6582 6582 432 White 0
12 Noon Sun 46 49 N 10 7018 7018 868 White 0
1 PM Sun 48 51 N 10 7452 7452 1302 White 18
2 PM Sun 48 51 N 11 7452 7452 1302 White 18
3 PM Sun 49 51 N 11 7452 7452 1302 White 18
4 PM Sun 48 49 N 11 7018 7018 868 White 0
5 PM Sun 49 49 N 9 7018 7018 868 White 0
6 PM Sun 46 46 N 9 6363 6363 213 White 0
7 PM Sun 43 43 N 9 5710 6150 0 White 0
8 PM Sun 41 41 NE 8 5710 6150 0 White 0
9 PM Sun 39 39 NE 8 5710 6150 0 White 0
10 PM Sun 37 37 NE 8 5710 6150 0 White 0
11 PM Sun 35 35 NE 8 5710 6150 0 White 0
12 Midnight Mon 34 34 NE 8 5710 6150 0 White 0
1 AM Mon 34 34 NE 8 5710 6150 0 White 0
2 AM Mon 33 33 NE 8 5710 6150 0 White 0
3 AM Mon 33 33 NE 8 5710 6150 0 White 0
4 AM Mon 32 32 NE 8 5710 6150 0 White 0
5 AM Mon 31 31 NE 8 5710 6150 0 White 0
6 AM Mon 32 32 NE 8 5710 6150 0 White 0
7 AM Mon 34 34 NE 8 5710 6150 0 White 0
8 AM Mon 38 38 NE 10 5710 6150 0 White 0
9 AM Mon 46 47 NE 10 6582 6582 432 White 0
10 AM Mon 46 48 NE 10 6800 6800 650 White 0
11 AM Mon 49 53 NE 13 7882 7882 1732 White 20
12 Noon Mon 54 58 NE 13 8947 8947 2797 White 25
1 PM Mon 55 59 NE 13 9160 9160 3010 White 26
2 PM Mon 56 60 NE 13 9372 9372 3222 White 27
3 PM Mon 57 60 NE 13 9372 9372 3222 White 27
4 PM Mon 56 57 NE 13 8735 8735 2585 White 24
5 PM Mon 57 57 NE 10 8735 8735 2585 White 24
6 PM Mon 53 53 NE 10 7882 7882 1732 White 20
7 PM Mon 49 49 NE 10 7018 7018 868 White 0
8 PM Mon 46 46 NE 8 6363 6363 213 White 0
9 PM Mon 43 43 NE 8 5710 6150 0 White 0
10 PM Mon 40 40 NE 8 5710 6150 0 White 0
11 PM Mon 39 39 E 7 5710 6150 0 White 0
12 Midnight Tue 38 38 E 7 5710 6150 0 White 0
1 AM Tue 37 37 E 7 5710 6150 0 White 0
2 AM Tue 36 36 E 7 5710 6150 0 White 0
3 AM Tue 36 36 E 7 5710 6150 0 White 0
4 AM Tue 34 34 E 7 5710 6150 0 White 0
5 AM Tue 33 33 E 7 5710 6150 0 White 0
6 AM Tue 34 34 E 7 5710 6150 0 White 0
7 AM Tue 36 36 E 7 5710 6150 0 White 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com