Detailed Predictions for: Apache Maid
Launch Altitude (f): 7000
LZ Altitude (f): 6200
Sounding

Station:

 KFGZ

Date/Time:

 11 MAR 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
8 AM Thu 24 24 NE 5 7816 7198 198 Blue 4
9 AM Thu 32 33 NE 5 10126 9514 2514 Blue 13
10 AM Thu 36 39 NE 5 11874 10618 3618 Blue 19
11 AM Thu 41 45 NE 6 16328 12994 5994 White 25
12 Noon Thu 43 47 NE 6 16737 14814 7814 White 27
1 PM Thu 42 46 NE 6 16533 13670 6670 White 26
2 PM Thu 40 44 SE 6 15645 12285 5285 Blue 24
3 PM Thu 41 43 SE 6 13841 12058 5058 Blue 23
4 PM Thu 39 40 SE 6 12103 11320 4320 Blue 20
5 PM Thu 36 36 SW 5 10726 10108 3108 Blue 16
6 PM Thu 32 32 SW 5 9988 9190 2190 Blue 12
7 PM Thu 26 26 SW 5 8585 7432 432 Blue 6
8 PM Thu 23 23 S 4 7437 7161 161 Blue 3
9 PM Thu 22 22 S 4 7294 7149 149 Blue 2
10 PM Thu 20 20 S 4 7162 7149 149 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 20 20 E 4 7162 7149 149 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 19 19 E 4 0 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 18 18 E 4 0 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 19 19 E 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 18 18 E 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 17 17 E 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 17 17 E 4 0 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 16 16 E 4 0 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 20 20 E 4 7162 7149 149 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 25 25 E 5 8204 7290 290 Blue 5
9 AM Fri 36 37 E 5 11411 10245 3245 Blue 17
10 AM Fri 42 45 E 5 16328 12994 5994 White 25
11 AM Fri 49 53 E 7 17953 17953 10953 White 33
12 Noon Fri 52 57 E 7 18728 18728 11728 White 37
1 PM Fri 51 56 E 7 18536 18536 11536 White 36
2 PM Fri 48 52 E 6 17751 17751 10751 White 32
3 PM Fri 50 53 E 6 17953 17953 10953 White 33
4 PM Fri 48 49 E 6 17144 17144 10144 White 29
5 PM Fri 44 44 SE 6 15645 12285 5285 Blue 24
6 PM Fri 39 39 SE 6 11874 10618 3618 Blue 19
7 PM Fri 32 32 SE 6 9988 9190 2190 Blue 12
8 PM Fri 30 30 S 5 9557 8828 1828 Blue 10
9 PM Fri 28 28 S 5 9025 8180 1180 Blue 8
10 PM Fri 25 25 S 5 8204 7290 290 Blue 5
11 PM Fri 25 25 SW 4 8204 7290 290 Blue 5
12 Midnight Sat 24 24 SW 4 7816 7198 198 Blue 4
1 AM Sat 24 24 SW 4 7816 7198 198 Blue 4
2 AM Sat 24 24 SW 4 7816 7198 198 Blue 4
3 AM Sat 24 24 SW 4 7816 7198 198 Blue 4
4 AM Sat 23 23 SW 4 7437 7161 161 Blue 3
5 AM Sat 22 22 SW 4 7294 7149 149 Blue 2
6 AM Sat 21 21 SW 4 7199 7149 149 Blue 1
7 AM Sat 25 25 SW 4 8204 7290 290 Blue 5
8 AM Sat 28 28 SW 6 9025 8180 1180 Blue 8
9 AM Sat 37 38 SW 6 11643 10382 3382 Blue 18
10 AM Sat 42 44 SW 6 15645 12285 5285 Blue 24
11 AM Sat 48 51 S 8 17549 17549 10549 White 31
12 Noon Sat 50 53 S 8 17953 17953 10953 White 33
1 PM Sat 49 52 S 8 17751 17751 10751 White 32
2 PM Sat 47 50 SW 12 17346 17346 10346 White 30
3 PM Sat 48 50 SW 12 17346 17346 10346 White 30
4 PM Sat 46 47 SW 12 16737 14814 7814 White 27
5 PM Sat 43 43 SW 15 13841 12058 5058 Blue 23
6 PM Sat 39 39 SW 15 11874 10618 3618 Blue 19
7 PM Sat 33 33 SW 15 10126 9514 2514 Blue 13
8 PM Sat 31 31 W 13 9851 9009 2009 Blue 11
9 PM Sat 30 30 W 13 9557 8828 1828 Blue 10
10 PM Sat 28 28 W 13 9025 8180 1180 Blue 8
11 PM Sat 28 28 W 8 9025 8180 1180 Blue 8
12 Midnight Sun 27 27 W 8 8843 7798 798 Blue 7
1 AM Sun 26 26 W 8 8585 7432 432 Blue 6
2 AM Sun 27 27 NW 7 8843 7798 798 Blue 7
3 AM Sun 26 26 NW 7 8585 7432 432 Blue 6
4 AM Sun 25 25 NW 7 8204 7290 290 Blue 5
5 AM Sun 25 25 NW 7 8204 7290 290 Blue 5
6 AM Sun 24 24 NW 7 7816 7198 198 Blue 4
7 AM Sun 26 26 NW 7 8585 7432 432 Blue 6
8 AM Sun 29 29 NW 7 9208 8557 1557 Blue 9
9 AM Sun 34 34 NW 7 10263 9833 2833 Blue 14
10 AM Sun 37 38 NW 7 11643 10382 3382 Blue 18
11 AM Sun 41 43 N 9 13841 12058 5058 Blue 23
12 Noon Sun 42 44 N 9 15645 12285 5285 Blue 24
1 PM Sun 41 43 N 9 13841 12058 5058 Blue 23
2 PM Sun 40 42 N 10 13159 11830 4830 Blue 22
3 PM Sun 41 42 N 10 13159 11830 4830 Blue 22
4 PM Sun 39 39 N 10 11874 10618 3618 Blue 19
5 PM Sun 37 37 N 11 11411 10245 3245 Blue 17
6 PM Sun 34 34 N 11 10263 9833 2833 Blue 14
7 PM Sun 31 31 N 11 9851 9009 2009 Blue 11
8 PM Sun 29 29 N 12 9208 8557 1557 Blue 9
9 PM Sun 28 28 N 12 9025 8180 1180 Blue 8
10 PM Sun 26 26 N 12 8585 7432 432 Blue 6
11 PM Sun 27 27 NE 12 8843 7798 798 Blue 7
12 Midnight Mon 26 26 NE 12 8585 7432 432 Blue 6
1 AM Mon 26 26 NE 12 8585 7432 432 Blue 6
2 AM Mon 26 26 NE 12 8585 7432 432 Blue 6
3 AM Mon 26 26 NE 12 8585 7432 432 Blue 6
4 AM Mon 25 25 NE 12 8204 7290 290 Blue 5
5 AM Mon 25 25 NE 12 8204 7290 290 Blue 5
6 AM Mon 24 24 NE 12 7816 7198 198 Blue 4
7 AM Mon 28 28 NE 12 9025 8180 1180 Blue 8
8 AM Mon 31 31 NE 12 9851 9009 2009 Blue 11
9 AM Mon 40 41 NE 12 12430 11601 4601 Blue 21
10 AM Mon 45 47 NE 12 16737 14814 7814 White 27
11 AM Mon 51 54 NE 12 18150 18150 11150 White 34
12 Noon Mon 53 57 NE 12 18728 18728 11728 White 37
1 PM Mon 52 56 NE 12 18536 18536 11536 White 36
2 PM Mon 50 53 NE 12 17953 17953 10953 White 33
3 PM Mon 51 53 NE 12 17953 17953 10953 White 33
4 PM Mon 49 50 NE 12 17346 17346 10346 White 30
5 PM Mon 45 45 NE 11 16328 12994 5994 White 25
6 PM Mon 41 41 NE 11 12430 11601 4601 Blue 21
7 PM Mon 35 35 NE 11 10401 9971 2971 Blue 15
8 PM Mon 33 33 NE 10 10126 9514 2514 Blue 13
9 PM Mon 31 31 NE 10 9851 9009 2009 Blue 11
10 PM Mon 29 29 NE 10 9208 8557 1557 Blue 9
11 PM Mon 29 29 NE 9 9208 8557 1557 Blue 9
12 Midnight Tue 28 28 NE 9 9025 8180 1180 Blue 8
1 AM Tue 27 27 NE 9 8843 7798 798 Blue 7
2 AM Tue 28 28 NE 8 9025 8180 1180 Blue 8
3 AM Tue 27 27 NE 8 8843 7798 798 Blue 7
4 AM Tue 26 26 NE 8 8585 7432 432 Blue 6
5 AM Tue 26 26 NE 7 8585 7432 432 Blue 6
6 AM Tue 25 25 NE 7 8204 7290 290 Blue 5
7 AM Tue 29 29 NE 7 9208 8557 1557 Blue 9
8 AM Tue 33 33 NE 8 10126 9514 2514 Blue 13
9 AM Tue 42 43 NE 8 13841 12058 5058 Blue 23
10 AM Tue 47 50 NE 8 17346 17346 10346 White 30
11 AM Tue 53 57 NE 9 18728 18728 11728 White 37
12 Noon Tue 55 60 NE 9 19305 19305 12305 White 40
1 PM Tue 54 59 NE 9 19112 19112 12112 White 39
2 PM Tue 52 56 NE 10 18536 18536 11536 White 36
3 PM Tue 53 56 NE 10 18536 18536 11536 White 36
4 PM Tue 51 52 NE 10 17751 17751 10751 White 32
5 PM Tue 47 47 NE 11 16737 14814 7814 White 27
6 PM Tue 42 42 NE 11 13159 11830 4830 Blue 22
7 PM Tue 36 36 NE 11 10726 10108 3108 Blue 16
8 PM Tue 33 33 NE 10 10126 9514 2514 Blue 13
9 PM Tue 32 32 NE 10 9988 9190 2190 Blue 12
10 PM Tue 29 29 NE 10 9208 8557 1557 Blue 9
11 PM Tue 29 29 E 9 9208 8557 1557 Blue 9
12 Midnight Wed 28 28 E 9 9025 8180 1180 Blue 8
1 AM Wed 28 28 E 9 9025 8180 1180 Blue 8
2 AM Wed 28 28 E 8 9025 8180 1180 Blue 8
3 AM Wed 28 28 E 8 9025 8180 1180 Blue 8
4 AM Wed 26 26 E 8 8585 7432 432 Blue 6
5 AM Wed 26 26 E 6 8585 7432 432 Blue 6
6 AM Wed 25 25 E 6 8204 7290 290 Blue 5
7 AM Wed 29 29 E 6 9208 8557 1557 Blue 9

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com