Detailed Predictions for: Apache Maid
Launch Altitude (f): 7000
LZ Altitude (f): 6200
Sounding

Station:

 KFGZ

Date/Time:

 19 MAR 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
6 AM Fri 32 32 SW 6 7233 7149 149 Blue 2
7 AM Fri 31 31 SW 6 7180 7149 149 Blue 1
8 AM Fri 33 33 SW 6 7284 7149 149 Blue 3
9 AM Fri 37 37 NE 9 7375 7306 306 Blue 7
10 AM Fri 43 44 NE 9 7834 7466 466 Blue 13
11 AM Fri 48 49 NE 9 11565 8508 1508 Blue 18
12 Noon Fri 52 55 NE 13 15359 13875 6875 Blue 24
1 PM Fri 54 57 NE 13 15897 14834 7834 White 26
2 PM Fri 55 58 NE 13 16102 15235 8235 White 27
3 PM Fri 54 56 N 16 15691 14425 7425 White 25
4 PM Fri 54 55 N 16 15359 13875 6875 Blue 24
5 PM Fri 53 53 N 16 14541 12302 5302 Blue 22
6 PM Fri 51 51 NW 14 13303 9846 2846 Blue 20
7 PM Fri 45 45 NW 14 7997 7499 499 Blue 14
8 PM Fri 39 39 NW 14 7421 7352 352 Blue 9
9 PM Fri 36 36 N 11 7353 7284 284 Blue 6
10 PM Fri 34 34 N 11 7307 7178 178 Blue 4
11 PM Fri 33 33 N 11 7284 7149 149 Blue 3
12 Midnight Sat 32 32 NE 11 7233 7149 149 Blue 2
1 AM Sat 31 31 NE 11 7180 7149 149 Blue 1
2 AM Sat 30 30 NE 11 0 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 29 29 NE 11 0 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 28 28 NE 11 0 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 27 27 NE 11 0 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 26 26 NE 11 0 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 26 26 NE 11 0 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 28 28 NE 11 0 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 32 34 E 14 7307 7178 178 Blue 4
10 AM Sat 38 41 E 14 7467 7397 397 Blue 10
11 AM Sat 43 48 E 14 9965 7989 989 Blue 17
12 Noon Sat 47 52 NE 13 14065 11349 4349 Blue 21
1 PM Sat 49 54 NE 13 14954 13120 6120 Blue 23
2 PM Sat 50 54 NE 13 14954 13120 6120 Blue 23
3 PM Sat 49 52 NE 11 14065 11349 4349 Blue 21
4 PM Sat 49 51 NE 11 13303 9846 2846 Blue 20
5 PM Sat 49 49 NE 11 11565 8508 1508 Blue 18
6 PM Sat 46 46 NE 10 8556 7663 663 Blue 15
7 PM Sat 40 40 NE 10 7444 7375 375 Blue 9
8 PM Sat 34 34 NE 10 7307 7178 178 Blue 4
9 PM Sat 30 30 NE 4 0 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 28 28 NE 4 0 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 27 27 NE 4 0 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 26 26 E 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 25 25 E 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 25 25 E 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 24 24 E 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 22 22 E 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 21 21 E 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 20 20 E 7 0 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 20 20 E 7 0 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 24 24 E 7 0 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 30 32 E 7 7233 7149 149 Blue 2
10 AM Sun 40 43 E 7 7670 7443 443 Blue 12
11 AM Sun 49 54 E 7 14954 13120 6120 Blue 23
12 Noon Sun 55 60 E 8 16508 16098 9098 White 29
1 PM Sun 58 63 E 8 17112 17112 10112 White 32
2 PM Sun 60 65 E 8 17512 17512 10512 White 34
3 PM Sun 58 61 E 8 16710 16710 9710 White 30
4 PM Sun 59 61 E 8 16710 16710 9710 White 30
5 PM Sun 58 58 E 8 16102 15235 8235 White 27
6 PM Sun 55 55 E 8 15359 13875 6875 Blue 24
7 PM Sun 48 48 E 8 9965 7989 989 Blue 17
8 PM Sun 41 41 E 8 7467 7397 397 Blue 10
9 PM Sun 36 36 E 7 7353 7284 284 Blue 6
10 PM Sun 34 34 E 7 7307 7178 178 Blue 4
11 PM Sun 33 33 E 7 7284 7149 149 Blue 3
12 Midnight Mon 32 32 E 6 7233 7149 149 Blue 2
1 AM Mon 31 31 E 6 7180 7149 149 Blue 1
2 AM Mon 30 30 E 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 29 29 SE 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 27 27 SE 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 26 26 SE 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 25 25 SE 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 24 24 SE 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 28 28 SE 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 34 35 SE 6 7330 7231 231 Blue 5
10 AM Mon 44 47 SE 6 9227 7826 826 Blue 16
11 AM Mon 52 56 SE 6 15691 14425 7425 White 25
12 Noon Mon 59 63 S 8 17112 17112 10112 White 32
1 PM Mon 62 66 S 8 17713 17713 10713 White 35
2 PM Mon 63 67 S 8 17911 17911 10911 White 36
3 PM Mon 62 65 SW 10 17512 17512 10512 White 34
4 PM Mon 62 63 SW 10 17112 17112 10112 White 32
5 PM Mon 62 62 SW 10 16910 16910 9910 White 31
6 PM Mon 59 59 SW 11 16306 15633 8633 White 28
7 PM Mon 52 52 SW 11 14065 11349 4349 Blue 21
8 PM Mon 44 44 SW 11 7834 7466 466 Blue 13
9 PM Mon 40 40 SW 10 7444 7375 375 Blue 9
10 PM Mon 38 38 SW 10 7398 7329 329 Blue 8
11 PM Mon 37 37 SW 10 7375 7306 306 Blue 7
12 Midnight Tue 36 36 SW 8 7353 7284 284 Blue 6
1 AM Tue 35 35 SW 8 7330 7231 231 Blue 5
2 AM Tue 34 34 SW 8 7307 7178 178 Blue 4
3 AM Tue 33 33 SW 6 7284 7149 149 Blue 3
4 AM Tue 31 31 SW 6 7180 7149 149 Blue 1
5 AM Tue 30 30 SW 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 29 29 SW 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 28 28 SW 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 31 31 SW 5 7180 7149 149 Blue 1
9 AM Tue 36 37 SW 8 7375 7306 306 Blue 7
10 AM Tue 44 46 SW 8 8556 7663 663 Blue 15
11 AM Tue 50 52 SW 8 14065 11349 4349 Blue 21
12 Noon Tue 55 58 SW 11 16102 15235 8235 White 27
1 PM Tue 57 60 SW 11 16508 16098 9098 White 29
2 PM Tue 58 60 SW 11 16508 16098 9098 White 29
3 PM Tue 57 59 SW 14 16306 15633 8633 White 28
4 PM Tue 58 59 SW 14 16306 15633 8633 White 28
5 PM Tue 57 57 SW 14 15897 14834 7834 White 26
6 PM Tue 54 54 SW 16 14954 13120 6120 Blue 23
7 PM Tue 49 49 SW 16 11565 8508 1508 Blue 18
8 PM Tue 42 42 SW 16 7506 7420 420 Blue 11
9 PM Tue 39 39 SW 14 7421 7352 352 Blue 9
10 PM Tue 37 37 SW 14 7375 7306 306 Blue 7
11 PM Tue 36 36 SW 14 7353 7284 284 Blue 6
12 Midnight Wed 35 35 W 12 7330 7231 231 Blue 5
1 AM Wed 34 34 W 12 7307 7178 178 Blue 4
2 AM Wed 34 34 W 12 7307 7178 178 Blue 4
3 AM Wed 33 33 NW 9 7284 7149 149 Blue 3
4 AM Wed 31 31 NW 9 7180 7149 149 Blue 1
5 AM Wed 31 31 NW 9 7180 7149 149 Blue 1
6 AM Wed 30 30 NW 8 0 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 29 29 NW 8 0 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 31 31 NW 8 7180 7149 149 Blue 1
9 AM Wed 35 36 NW 9 7353 7284 284 Blue 6
10 AM Wed 41 43 NW 9 7670 7443 443 Blue 12
11 AM Wed 45 47 NW 9 9227 7826 826 Blue 16
12 Noon Wed 49 52 N 11 14065 11349 4349 Blue 21
1 PM Wed 51 54 N 11 14954 13120 6120 Blue 23
2 PM Wed 51 53 N 11 14541 12302 5302 Blue 22
3 PM Wed 50 52 N 14 14065 11349 4349 Blue 21
4 PM Wed 51 52 N 14 14065 11349 4349 Blue 21
5 PM Wed 50 50 N 14 12477 9167 2167 Blue 19
6 PM Wed 48 48 N 15 9965 7989 989 Blue 17
7 PM Wed 43 43 N 15 7670 7443 443 Blue 12
8 PM Wed 37 37 N 15 7375 7306 306 Blue 7
9 PM Wed 34 34 N 13 7307 7178 178 Blue 4
10 PM Wed 32 32 N 13 7233 7149 149 Blue 2
11 PM Wed 32 32 N 13 7233 7149 149 Blue 2
12 Midnight Thu 31 31 N 10 7180 7149 149 Blue 1
1 AM Thu 30 30 N 10 0 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 29 29 N 10 0 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 28 28 NE 7 0 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 27 27 NE 7 0 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 26 26 NE 7 0 7000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com