Detailed Predictions for: Apache Maid
Launch Altitude (f): 7000
LZ Altitude (f): 6200
Sounding

Station:

 KFGZ

Date/Time:

 3 SEP 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
6 AM Fri 49 49 E 7 7203 7162 162 Blue 4
7 AM Fri 48 48 E 7 7189 7149 149 Blue 3
8 AM Fri 54 55 E 7 7272 7244 244 Blue 10
9 AM Fri 65 67 E 6 7376 7349 349 Blue 22
10 AM Fri 72 76 E 6 7582 7461 461 Blue 31
11 AM Fri 76 81 E 6 17201 7925 925 White 36
12 Noon Fri 79 83 S 10 17606 9893 2893 Blue 38
1 PM Fri 82 87 S 10 18423 17711 10711 White 42
2 PM Fri 85 89 S 10 18834 18192 11192 White 44
3 PM Fri 85 88 SW 12 18628 17927 10927 White 43
4 PM Fri 85 87 SW 12 18423 17711 10711 White 42
5 PM Fri 84 84 SW 12 17792 17244 10244 Blue 39
6 PM Fri 82 82 SW 12 17405 8327 1327 White 37
7 PM Fri 78 78 SW 12 7934 7495 495 Blue 33
8 PM Fri 71 71 SW 12 7428 7384 384 Blue 26
9 PM Fri 65 65 SW 6 7358 7332 332 Blue 20
10 PM Fri 62 62 SW 6 7333 7306 306 Blue 17
11 PM Fri 59 59 SW 6 7307 7281 281 Blue 14
12 Midnight Sat 57 57 NE 1 7289 7263 263 Blue 12
1 AM Sat 55 55 NE 1 7272 7244 244 Blue 10
2 AM Sat 54 54 NE 1 7264 7230 230 Blue 9
3 AM Sat 53 53 NE 1 7255 7216 216 Blue 8
4 AM Sat 53 53 NE 1 7255 7216 216 Blue 8
5 AM Sat 52 52 NE 1 7244 7203 203 Blue 7
6 AM Sat 50 50 E 2 7217 7175 175 Blue 5
7 AM Sat 50 50 E 2 7217 7175 175 Blue 5
8 AM Sat 55 56 E 2 7281 7255 255 Blue 11
9 AM Sat 66 68 E 3 7384 7358 358 Blue 23
10 AM Sat 72 75 E 3 7495 7444 444 Blue 30
11 AM Sat 76 80 E 3 10048 7742 742 Blue 35
12 Noon Sat 79 83 SW 12 17606 9893 2893 Blue 38
1 PM Sat 82 86 SW 12 18220 17544 10544 White 41
2 PM Sat 84 88 SW 12 18628 17927 10927 White 43
3 PM Sat 85 88 SW 13 18628 17927 10927 White 43
4 PM Sat 85 86 SW 13 18220 17544 10544 White 41
5 PM Sat 84 84 SW 13 17792 17244 10244 Blue 39
6 PM Sat 82 82 SW 12 17405 8327 1327 White 37
7 PM Sat 79 79 SW 12 8445 7578 578 Blue 34
8 PM Sat 73 73 SW 12 7461 7410 410 Blue 28
9 PM Sat 68 68 SW 6 7384 7358 358 Blue 23
10 PM Sat 65 65 SW 6 7358 7332 332 Blue 20
11 PM Sat 63 63 SW 6 7341 7315 315 Blue 18
12 Midnight Sun 61 61 SW 3 7324 7298 298 Blue 16
1 AM Sun 59 59 SW 3 7307 7281 281 Blue 14
2 AM Sun 59 59 SW 3 7307 7281 281 Blue 14
3 AM Sun 58 58 SW 2 7298 7272 272 Blue 13
4 AM Sun 58 58 SW 2 7298 7272 272 Blue 13
5 AM Sun 57 57 SW 2 7289 7263 263 Blue 12
6 AM Sun 56 56 SW 2 7281 7255 255 Blue 11
7 AM Sun 55 55 SW 2 7272 7244 244 Blue 10
8 AM Sun 60 60 SW 2 7315 7289 289 Blue 15
9 AM Sun 68 70 SW 8 7411 7375 375 Blue 25
10 AM Sun 73 76 SW 8 7582 7461 461 Blue 31
11 AM Sun 76 80 SW 8 10048 7742 742 Blue 35
12 Noon Sun 78 84 SW 20 17792 17244 10244 Blue 39
1 PM Sun 80 86 SW 20 18220 17544 10544 White 41
2 PM Sun 82 87 SW 20 18423 17711 10711 White 42
3 PM Sun 83 87 SW 22 18423 17711 10711 White 42
4 PM Sun 83 85 SW 22 18013 17416 10416 Blue 40
5 PM Sun 81 82 SW 22 17405 8327 1327 White 37
6 PM Sun 79 79 SW 22 8445 7578 578 Blue 34
7 PM Sun 76 76 SW 22 7582 7461 461 Blue 31
8 PM Sun 69 69 SW 22 7394 7367 367 Blue 24
9 PM Sun 64 64 SW 18 7350 7324 324 Blue 19
10 PM Sun 61 61 SW 18 7324 7298 298 Blue 16
11 PM Sun 58 58 SW 18 7298 7272 272 Blue 13
12 Midnight Mon 56 56 SW 14 7281 7255 255 Blue 11
1 AM Mon 54 54 SW 14 7264 7230 230 Blue 9
2 AM Mon 53 53 SW 14 7255 7216 216 Blue 8
3 AM Mon 53 53 S 10 7255 7216 216 Blue 8
4 AM Mon 52 52 S 10 7244 7203 203 Blue 7
5 AM Mon 51 51 S 10 7230 7189 189 Blue 6
6 AM Mon 50 50 S 7 7217 7175 175 Blue 5
7 AM Mon 49 49 S 7 7203 7162 162 Blue 4
8 AM Mon 54 55 S 7 7272 7244 244 Blue 10
9 AM Mon 64 66 S 10 7367 7341 341 Blue 21
10 AM Mon 69 73 S 10 7461 7410 410 Blue 28
11 AM Mon 73 78 S 10 7934 7495 495 Blue 33
12 Noon Mon 76 82 SW 10 17405 8327 1327 White 37
1 PM Mon 78 84 SW 10 17792 17244 10244 Blue 39
2 PM Mon 80 86 SW 10 18220 17544 10544 White 41
3 PM Mon 81 85 SW 14 18013 17416 10416 Blue 40
4 PM Mon 81 83 SW 14 17606 9893 2893 Blue 38
5 PM Mon 79 80 SW 14 10048 7742 742 Blue 35
6 PM Mon 77 77 SW 14 7750 7478 478 Blue 32
7 PM Mon 73 73 SW 14 7461 7410 410 Blue 28
8 PM Mon 66 66 SW 14 7367 7341 341 Blue 21
9 PM Mon 60 60 SW 8 7315 7289 289 Blue 15
10 PM Mon 57 57 SW 8 7289 7263 263 Blue 12
11 PM Mon 54 54 SW 8 7264 7230 230 Blue 9
12 Midnight Tue 52 52 S 5 7244 7203 203 Blue 7
1 AM Tue 49 49 S 5 7203 7162 162 Blue 4
2 AM Tue 48 48 S 5 7189 7149 149 Blue 3
3 AM Tue 48 48 S 3 7189 7149 149 Blue 3
4 AM Tue 48 48 S 3 7189 7149 149 Blue 3
5 AM Tue 46 46 S 3 7162 7149 149 Blue 1
6 AM Tue 45 45 S 2 0 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 44 44 S 2 0 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 50 51 S 2 7230 7189 189 Blue 6
9 AM Tue 60 62 S 7 7333 7306 306 Blue 17
10 AM Tue 66 70 S 7 7411 7375 375 Blue 25
11 AM Tue 70 75 S 7 7495 7444 444 Blue 30
12 Noon Tue 73 78 S 13 7934 7495 495 Blue 33
1 PM Tue 76 82 S 13 17405 8327 1327 White 37
2 PM Tue 78 83 S 13 17606 9893 2893 Blue 38
3 PM Tue 79 83 SW 15 17606 9893 2893 Blue 38
4 PM Tue 79 81 SW 15 17201 7925 925 White 36
5 PM Tue 77 78 SW 15 7934 7495 495 Blue 33
6 PM Tue 75 75 SW 15 7495 7444 444 Blue 30
7 PM Tue 72 72 SW 15 7445 7393 393 Blue 27
8 PM Tue 65 65 SW 15 7358 7332 332 Blue 20
9 PM Tue 59 59 S 10 7307 7281 281 Blue 14
10 PM Tue 56 56 S 10 7281 7255 255 Blue 11
11 PM Tue 53 53 S 10 7255 7216 216 Blue 8
12 Midnight Wed 52 52 S 7 7244 7203 203 Blue 7
1 AM Wed 49 49 S 7 7203 7162 162 Blue 4
2 AM Wed 49 49 S 7 7203 7162 162 Blue 4
3 AM Wed 48 48 S 5 7189 7149 149 Blue 3
4 AM Wed 48 48 S 5 7189 7149 149 Blue 3
5 AM Wed 46 46 S 5 7162 7149 149 Blue 1
6 AM Wed 45 45 S 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 44 44 S 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 50 51 S 5 7230 7189 189 Blue 6
9 AM Wed 59 61 S 8 7324 7298 298 Blue 16
10 AM Wed 64 67 S 8 7376 7349 349 Blue 22
11 AM Wed 68 73 S 8 7461 7410 410 Blue 28
12 Noon Wed 71 77 S 15 7750 7478 478 Blue 32
1 PM Wed 73 79 S 15 8445 7578 578 Blue 34
2 PM Wed 75 80 S 15 10048 7742 742 Blue 35
3 PM Wed 76 80 S 16 10048 7742 742 Blue 35
4 PM Wed 76 78 S 16 7934 7495 495 Blue 33
5 PM Wed 75 76 S 16 7582 7461 461 Blue 31
6 PM Wed 73 73 S 16 7461 7410 410 Blue 28
7 PM Wed 70 70 S 16 7411 7375 375 Blue 25
8 PM Wed 64 64 S 16 7350 7324 324 Blue 19
9 PM Wed 59 59 S 12 7307 7281 281 Blue 14
10 PM Wed 56 56 S 12 7281 7255 255 Blue 11
11 PM Wed 53 53 S 12 7255 7216 216 Blue 8
12 Midnight Thu 52 52 S 6 7244 7203 203 Blue 7
1 AM Thu 50 50 S 6 7217 7175 175 Blue 5
2 AM Thu 49 49 S 6 7203 7162 162 Blue 4
3 AM Thu 49 49 S 6 7203 7162 162 Blue 4
4 AM Thu 48 48 S 6 7189 7149 149 Blue 3
5 AM Thu 47 47 S 6 7176 7149 149 Blue 2

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com