Detailed Predictions for: Apache Maid
Launch Altitude (f): 7000
LZ Altitude (f): 6200
Sounding

Station:

 KFGZ

Date/Time:

 4 FEB 2012

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
5 AM Sat 19 19 E 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 18 18 E 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 18 18 E 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 20 20 NE 12 0 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 29 29 NE 12 6399 7000 0 White 0
10 AM Sat 38 39 NE 12 8355 8355 1355 White 11
11 AM Sat 43 44 NE 14 9445 9445 2445 White 16
12 Noon Sat 47 49 NE 14 10543 10543 3543 White 21
1 PM Sat 48 50 NE 14 10756 10756 3756 White 22
2 PM Sat 48 49 NE 13 10543 10543 3543 White 21
3 PM Sat 47 48 NE 13 10330 10330 3330 White 20
4 PM Sat 47 47 NE 13 10115 10115 3115 White 19
5 PM Sat 43 43 NE 9 9229 9229 2229 White 15
6 PM Sat 37 37 NE 9 7916 7916 916 White 9
7 PM Sat 31 31 NE 9 6589 7000 0 White 0
8 PM Sat 27 27 NE 8 6399 7000 0 White 0
9 PM Sat 24 24 NE 8 0 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 22 22 NE 8 0 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 21 21 NE 7 0 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 20 20 NE 7 0 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 21 21 NE 7 0 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 21 21 NE 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 21 21 NE 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 20 20 NE 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 19 19 E 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 18 18 E 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 18 18 E 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 20 20 E 7 0 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 29 29 E 7 6399 7000 0 White 0
10 AM Sun 39 40 E 7 8574 8574 1574 White 12
11 AM Sun 44 45 NE 9 9661 9661 2661 White 17
12 Noon Sun 47 49 NE 9 10543 10543 3543 White 21
1 PM Sun 49 51 NE 9 10968 10968 3968 White 23
2 PM Sun 49 50 E 8 10756 10756 3756 White 22
3 PM Sun 49 50 E 8 10756 10756 3756 White 22
4 PM Sun 48 48 E 8 10330 10330 3330 White 20
5 PM Sun 44 44 E 6 9445 9445 2445 White 16
6 PM Sun 38 38 E 6 8135 8135 1135 White 10
7 PM Sun 32 32 E 6 6810 7000 0 White 0
8 PM Sun 29 29 W 3 6399 7000 0 White 0
9 PM Sun 26 26 W 3 6399 7000 0 White 0
10 PM Sun 24 24 W 3 0 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 23 23 E 3 0 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 22 22 E 3 0 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 23 23 E 3 0 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 23 23 E 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 23 23 E 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 22 22 E 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 21 21 E 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 20 20 E 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 20 20 E 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 22 22 SE 3 0 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 31 31 SE 3 6589 7000 0 White 0
10 AM Mon 40 41 SE 3 8793 8793 1793 White 13
11 AM Mon 45 46 S 1 9888 9888 2888 White 18
12 Noon Mon 49 51 S 1 10968 10968 3968 White 23
1 PM Mon 50 52 S 1 11181 11181 4181 White 24
2 PM Mon 50 51 SW 3 10968 10968 3968 White 23
3 PM Mon 49 50 SW 3 10756 10756 3756 White 22
4 PM Mon 49 49 SW 3 10543 10543 3543 White 21
5 PM Mon 45 45 W 6 9661 9661 2661 White 17
6 PM Mon 39 39 W 6 8355 8355 1355 White 11
7 PM Mon 33 33 W 6 7031 7031 31 White 0
8 PM Mon 29 29 N 7 6399 7000 0 White 0
9 PM Mon 26 26 N 7 6399 7000 0 White 0
10 PM Mon 24 24 N 7 0 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 23 23 NE 8 0 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 22 22 NE 8 0 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 23 23 NE 8 0 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 23 23 NE 9 0 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 23 23 NE 9 0 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 22 22 NE 9 0 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 21 21 NE 12 0 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 20 20 NE 12 0 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 20 20 NE 12 0 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 22 22 E 12 0 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 31 31 E 12 6589 7000 0 White 0
10 AM Tue 41 41 E 12 8793 8793 1793 White 13
11 AM Tue 46 47 E 10 10115 10115 3115 White 19
12 Noon Tue 49 50 E 10 10756 10756 3756 White 22
1 PM Tue 51 52 E 10 11181 11181 4181 White 24
2 PM Tue 51 52 SE 8 11181 11181 4181 White 24
3 PM Tue 51 52 SE 8 11181 11181 4181 White 24
4 PM Tue 50 50 SE 8 10756 10756 3756 White 22
5 PM Tue 46 46 SE 7 9888 9888 2888 White 18
6 PM Tue 41 41 SE 7 8793 8793 1793 White 13
7 PM Tue 35 35 SE 7 7475 7475 475 White 7
8 PM Tue 32 32 SE 7 6810 7000 0 White 0
9 PM Tue 29 29 SE 7 6399 7000 0 White 0
10 PM Tue 27 27 SE 7 6399 7000 0 White 0
11 PM Tue 26 26 E 7 6399 7000 0 White 0
12 Midnight Wed 26 26 E 7 6399 7000 0 White 0
1 AM Wed 26 26 E 7 6399 7000 0 White 0
2 AM Wed 26 26 E 7 6399 7000 0 White 0
3 AM Wed 26 26 E 7 6399 7000 0 White 0
4 AM Wed 25 25 E 7 6399 7000 0 White 0
5 AM Wed 24 24 NE 8 0 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 23 23 NE 8 0 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 24 24 NE 8 0 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 25 25 NE 9 6399 7000 0 White 0
9 AM Wed 33 33 NE 9 7031 7031 31 White 0
10 AM Wed 41 41 NE 9 8793 8793 1793 White 13
11 AM Wed 45 46 NE 10 9888 9888 2888 White 18
12 Noon Wed 48 49 NE 10 10543 10543 3543 White 21
1 PM Wed 49 50 NE 10 10756 10756 3756 White 22
2 PM Wed 49 50 NE 12 10756 10756 3756 White 22
3 PM Wed 49 50 NE 12 10756 10756 3756 White 22
4 PM Wed 48 48 NE 12 10330 10330 3330 White 20
5 PM Wed 46 46 NE 13 9888 9888 2888 White 18
6 PM Wed 42 42 NE 13 9012 9012 2012 White 14
7 PM Wed 38 38 NE 13 8135 8135 1135 White 10
8 PM Wed 36 36 NE 13 7696 7696 696 White 8
9 PM Wed 34 34 NE 13 7252 7252 252 White 6
10 PM Wed 33 33 NE 13 7031 7031 31 White 0
11 PM Wed 32 32 NE 14 6810 7000 0 White 0
12 Midnight Thu 32 32 NE 14 6810 7000 0 White 0
1 AM Thu 32 32 NE 14 6810 7000 0 White 0
2 AM Thu 32 32 NE 15 6810 7000 0 White 0
3 AM Thu 32 32 NE 15 6810 7000 0 White 0
4 AM Thu 31 31 NE 15 6589 7000 0 White 0
5 AM Thu 30 30 NE 15 6399 7000 0 White 0
6 AM Thu 30 30 NE 15 6399 7000 0 White 0
7 AM Thu 30 30 NE 15 6399 7000 0 White 0
8 AM Thu 31 31 NE 15 6589 7000 0 White 0
9 AM Thu 36 36 NE 15 7696 7696 696 White 8
10 AM Thu 41 41 NE 15 8793 8793 1793 White 13
11 AM Thu 44 45 NE 14 9661 9661 2661 White 17
12 Noon Thu 45 46 NE 14 9888 9888 2888 White 18
1 PM Thu 46 47 NE 14 10115 10115 3115 White 19
2 PM Thu 46 47 NE 14 10115 10115 3115 White 19
3 PM Thu 46 46 NE 14 9888 9888 2888 White 18
4 PM Thu 45 45 NE 14 9661 9661 2661 White 17
5 PM Thu 42 42 NE 13 9012 9012 2012 White 14
6 PM Thu 38 38 NE 13 8135 8135 1135 White 10
7 PM Thu 33 33 NE 13 7031 7031 31 White 0
8 PM Thu 31 31 NE 12 6589 7000 0 White 0
9 PM Thu 29 29 NE 12 6399 7000 0 White 0
10 PM Thu 27 27 NE 12 6399 7000 0 White 0
11 PM Thu 27 27 NE 12 6399 7000 0 White 0
12 Midnight Fri 26 26 NE 12 6399 7000 0 White 0
1 AM Fri 26 26 NE 12 6399 7000 0 White 0
2 AM Fri 27 27 NE 12 6399 7000 0 White 0
3 AM Fri 26 26 NE 12 6399 7000 0 White 0
4 AM Fri 26 26 NE 12 6399 7000 0 White 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com