Detailed Predictions for: Wolf Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 9500
LZ Altitude (f): 6800
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

21 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Wed 47 47 SE 2 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 49 49 SE 2 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 52 52 SE 2 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 55 55 SE 3 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 60 62 SE 3 10233 9500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 64 67 SE 3 13378 11523 2023 Blue 5
11 AM Wed 67 72 SW 5 15800 14308 4808 Blue 10
12 Noon Wed 69 75 SW 5 17124 15707 6207 Blue 13
1 PM Wed 70 76 SW 5 17549 16153 6653 Blue 14
2 PM Wed 70 76 W 14 17549 16153 6653 Blue 14
3 PM Wed 70 75 W 14 17124 15707 6207 Blue 13
4 PM Wed 69 72 W 14 15800 14308 4808 Blue 10
5 PM Wed 67 69 SW 13 14384 12735 3235 Blue 7
6 PM Wed 64 65 SW 13 12194 10217 717 Blue 3
7 PM Wed 61 61 SW 13 9573 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 58 58 SW 8 7384 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 56 56 SW 8 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 54 54 SW 8 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 52 52 SW 7 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 52 52 SW 7 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 51 51 SW 7 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 50 50 SW 5 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 49 49 SW 5 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 48 48 SW 5 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 48 48 S 5 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 50 50 S 5 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 52 52 S 5 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 56 56 S 6 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 60 61 S 6 9573 9500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 64 67 S 6 13378 11523 2023 Blue 5
11 AM Thu 68 73 W 8 16250 14785 5285 Blue 11
12 Noon Thu 70 76 W 8 17549 16153 6653 Blue 14
1 PM Thu 72 79 W 8 18829 17439 7939 Blue 17
2 PM Thu 73 79 W 10 18829 17439 7939 Blue 17
3 PM Thu 73 78 W 10 18402 17018 7518 Blue 16
4 PM Thu 72 76 W 10 17549 16153 6653 Blue 14
5 PM Thu 70 72 W 10 15800 14308 4808 Blue 10
6 PM Thu 67 68 W 10 13888 12141 2641 Blue 6
7 PM Thu 64 64 W 10 11565 9569 69 Blue 2
8 PM Thu 61 61 W 10 9573 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 58 58 W 10 7384 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 56 56 W 10 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 54 54 E 3 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 52 52 E 3 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 51 51 E 3 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 50 50 E 3 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 48 48 E 3 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 47 47 E 3 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 47 47 SE 5 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 49 49 SE 5 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 51 51 SE 5 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 55 55 SE 5 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 59 61 SE 5 9573 9500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 63 66 SE 5 12797 10878 1378 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 66 71 SW 8 15339 13818 4318 Blue 9
12 Noon Fri 69 75 SW 8 17124 15707 6207 Blue 13
1 PM Fri 70 76 SW 8 17549 16153 6653 Blue 14
2 PM Fri 71 77 SW 8 17966 16590 7090 Blue 15
3 PM Fri 71 76 SW 8 17549 16153 6653 Blue 14
4 PM Fri 69 73 SW 8 16250 14785 5285 Blue 11
5 PM Fri 68 70 W 12 14867 13308 3808 Blue 8
6 PM Fri 66 66 W 12 12797 10878 1378 Blue 4
7 PM Fri 63 63 W 12 10909 9500 0 Blue 1
8 PM Fri 59 59 W 12 8154 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 57 57 W 12 6561 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 57 57 W 12 6561 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 56 56 S 6 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 55 55 S 6 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 53 53 S 6 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 51 51 S 6 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 50 50 S 6 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 49 49 S 6 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 49 49 SW 5 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 51 51 SW 5 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 53 53 SW 5 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 56 56 SW 5 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 60 62 SW 5 10233 9500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 63 67 SW 5 13378 11523 2023 Blue 5
11 AM Sat 66 71 SW 8 15339 13818 4318 Blue 9
12 Noon Sat 68 75 SW 8 17124 15707 6207 Blue 13
1 PM Sat 69 76 SW 8 17549 16153 6653 Blue 14
2 PM Sat 69 76 SW 8 17549 16153 6653 Blue 14
3 PM Sat 69 75 SW 8 17124 15707 6207 Blue 13
4 PM Sat 68 72 SW 8 15800 14308 4808 Blue 10
5 PM Sat 67 69 W 13 14384 12735 3235 Blue 7
6 PM Sat 64 65 W 13 12194 10217 717 Blue 3
7 PM Sat 62 62 W 13 10233 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 59 59 W 13 8154 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 57 57 W 13 6561 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 55 55 W 13 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 54 54 SW 5 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 52 52 SW 5 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 51 51 SW 5 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 50 50 SW 5 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 49 49 SW 5 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 49 49 SW 5 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 49 49 SW 5 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 50 50 SW 5 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 53 53 SW 5 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 55 55 SW 5 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 59 61 SW 5 9573 9500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 62 66 SW 5 12797 10878 1378 Blue 4
11 AM Sun 65 70 SW 8 14867 13308 3808 Blue 8
12 Noon Sun 67 74 SW 8 16692 15251 5751 Blue 12
1 PM Sun 69 76 SW 8 17549 16153 6653 Blue 14
2 PM Sun 69 76 SW 8 17549 16153 6653 Blue 14
3 PM Sun 68 74 SW 8 16692 15251 5751 Blue 12
4 PM Sun 67 71 SW 8 15339 13818 4318 Blue 9
5 PM Sun 65 67 SW 14 13378 11523 2023 Blue 5
6 PM Sun 63 64 SW 14 11565 9569 69 Blue 2
7 PM Sun 61 61 SW 14 9573 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 59 59 SW 14 8154 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 56 56 SW 14 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 55 55 SW 14 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 53 53 SW 2 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 53 53 SW 2 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 52 52 SW 2 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 51 51 SW 2 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 49 49 SW 2 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 47 47 SW 2 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 47 47 W 5 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 49 49 W 5 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 53 53 W 5 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 57 57 W 5 6561 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 60 62 W 5 10233 9500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 62 66 W 5 12797 10878 1378 Blue 4
11 AM Mon 65 70 W 7 14867 13308 3808 Blue 8
12 Noon Mon 67 73 W 7 16250 14785 5285 Blue 11
1 PM Mon 69 75 W 7 17124 15707 6207 Blue 13
2 PM Mon 70 76 W 7 17549 16153 6653 Blue 14
3 PM Mon 69 74 W 7 16692 15251 5751 Blue 12
4 PM Mon 68 72 W 7 15800 14308 4808 Blue 10
5 PM Mon 66 68 W 10 13888 12141 2641 Blue 6
6 PM Mon 65 65 W 10 12194 10217 717 Blue 3
7 PM Mon 64 64 W 10 11565 9569 69 Blue 2
8 PM Mon 62 62 W 10 10233 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 60 60 W 10 8881 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 57 57 W 10 6561 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 55 55 W 2 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 55 55 W 2 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 55 55 W 2 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 54 54 W 2 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 52 52 W 2 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 50 50 W 2 5902 9500 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com