Detailed Predictions for: Paiute
Launch Altitude (f): 8021
LZ Altitude (f): 4283
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

21 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Wed 56 56 N 3 5902 8021 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 58 58 N 3 5902 8021 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 61 61 N 3 6682 8021 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 64 64 NE 3 8953 8021 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 66 68 NE 3 11596 9613 1592 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 69 72 NE 3 13887 12149 4128 Blue 6
11 AM Wed 71 76 SE 7 15777 14291 6270 Blue 10
12 Noon Wed 74 80 SE 7 17509 16117 8096 Blue 14
1 PM Wed 77 84 SE 7 19189 17799 9778 Blue 18
2 PM Wed 79 85 S 10 19715 18217 10196 Blue 19
3 PM Wed 80 85 S 10 19715 18217 10196 Blue 19
4 PM Wed 79 83 S 10 18774 17390 9369 Blue 17
5 PM Wed 78 80 SW 9 17509 16117 8096 Blue 14
6 PM Wed 76 76 SW 9 15777 14291 6270 Blue 10
7 PM Wed 73 73 SW 9 14377 12736 4715 Blue 7
8 PM Wed 71 71 SW 6 13384 11540 3519 Blue 5
9 PM Wed 69 69 SW 6 12215 10251 2230 Blue 3
10 PM Wed 68 68 SW 6 11596 9613 1592 Blue 2
11 PM Wed 67 67 N 5 10950 8947 926 Blue 1
12 Midnight Thu 66 66 N 5 10281 8248 227 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 65 65 N 5 9632 8021 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 64 64 N 3 8953 8021 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 62 62 N 3 7485 8021 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 60 60 N 3 5902 8021 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 59 59 N 3 5902 8021 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 60 60 N 3 5902 8021 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 62 62 N 3 7485 8021 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 64 64 NW 5 8953 8021 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 67 69 NW 5 12215 10251 2230 Blue 3
10 AM Thu 69 72 NW 5 13887 12149 4128 Blue 6
11 AM Thu 72 77 S 8 16223 14763 6742 Blue 11
12 Noon Thu 75 81 S 8 17921 16549 8528 Blue 15
1 PM Thu 77 84 S 8 19189 17799 9778 Blue 18
2 PM Thu 79 85 S 8 19715 18217 10196 Blue 19
3 PM Thu 80 85 S 8 19715 18217 10196 Blue 19
4 PM Thu 80 84 S 8 19189 17799 9778 Blue 18
5 PM Thu 79 81 SE 9 17921 16549 8528 Blue 15
6 PM Thu 76 77 SE 9 16223 14763 6742 Blue 11
7 PM Thu 73 73 SE 9 14377 12736 4715 Blue 7
8 PM Thu 70 70 SE 9 12810 10904 2883 Blue 4
9 PM Thu 68 68 SE 9 11596 9613 1592 Blue 2
10 PM Thu 67 67 SE 9 10950 8947 926 Blue 1
11 PM Thu 66 66 SE 5 10281 8248 227 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 65 65 SE 5 9632 8021 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 63 63 SE 5 8239 8021 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 61 61 SE 5 6682 8021 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 57 57 SE 5 5902 8021 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 55 55 SE 5 5902 8021 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 54 54 SE 3 5902 8021 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 56 56 SE 3 5902 8021 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 59 59 SE 3 5902 8021 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 63 63 SE 3 8239 8021 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 66 68 SE 3 11596 9613 1592 Blue 2
10 AM Fri 68 71 SE 3 13384 11540 3519 Blue 5
11 AM Fri 71 77 S 12 16223 14763 6742 Blue 11
12 Noon Fri 73 80 S 12 17509 16117 8096 Blue 14
1 PM Fri 76 83 S 12 18774 17390 9369 Blue 17
2 PM Fri 79 86 S 12 20329 18636 10615 Blue 19
3 PM Fri 80 86 S 12 20329 18636 10615 Blue 19
4 PM Fri 80 84 S 12 19189 17799 9778 Blue 18
5 PM Fri 79 81 S 14 17921 16549 8528 Blue 15
6 PM Fri 76 76 S 14 15777 14291 6270 Blue 10
7 PM Fri 73 73 S 14 14377 12736 4715 Blue 7
8 PM Fri 69 69 S 14 12215 10251 2230 Blue 3
9 PM Fri 67 67 S 14 10950 8947 926 Blue 1
10 PM Fri 66 66 S 14 10281 8248 227 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 65 65 S 7 9632 8021 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 63 63 S 7 8239 8021 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 62 62 S 7 7485 8021 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 60 60 S 7 5902 8021 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 58 58 S 7 5902 8021 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 57 57 S 7 5902 8021 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 56 56 S 5 5902 8021 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 57 57 S 5 5902 8021 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 59 59 S 5 5902 8021 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 62 62 S 5 7485 8021 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 65 67 S 5 10950 8947 926 Blue 1
10 AM Sat 68 72 S 5 13887 12149 4128 Blue 6
11 AM Sat 70 76 S 9 15777 14291 6270 Blue 10
12 Noon Sat 73 80 S 9 17509 16117 8096 Blue 14
1 PM Sat 76 83 S 9 18774 17390 9369 Blue 17
2 PM Sat 78 85 S 9 19715 18217 10196 Blue 19
3 PM Sat 79 85 S 9 19715 18217 10196 Blue 19
4 PM Sat 80 84 S 9 19189 17799 9778 Blue 18
5 PM Sat 79 81 S 12 17921 16549 8528 Blue 15
6 PM Sat 76 77 S 12 16223 14763 6742 Blue 11
7 PM Sat 72 72 S 12 13887 12149 4128 Blue 6
8 PM Sat 69 69 S 12 12215 10251 2230 Blue 3
9 PM Sat 66 66 S 12 10281 8248 227 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 65 65 S 12 9632 8021 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 64 64 S 3 8953 8021 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 63 63 S 3 8239 8021 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 63 63 S 3 8239 8021 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 61 61 S 3 6682 8021 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 59 59 S 3 5902 8021 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 56 56 S 3 5902 8021 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 55 55 NE 5 5902 8021 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 56 56 NE 5 5902 8021 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 59 59 NE 5 5902 8021 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 62 62 NE 5 7485 8021 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 65 67 NE 5 10950 8947 926 Blue 1
10 AM Sun 68 72 NE 5 13887 12149 4128 Blue 6
11 AM Sun 71 77 S 7 16223 14763 6742 Blue 11
12 Noon Sun 73 80 S 7 17509 16117 8096 Blue 14
1 PM Sun 76 83 S 7 18774 17390 9369 Blue 17
2 PM Sun 78 85 S 7 19715 18217 10196 Blue 19
3 PM Sun 79 85 S 7 19715 18217 10196 Blue 19
4 PM Sun 78 82 S 7 18351 16973 8952 Blue 16
5 PM Sun 77 79 SW 8 17088 15675 7654 Blue 13
6 PM Sun 75 76 SW 8 15777 14291 6270 Blue 10
7 PM Sun 73 73 SW 8 14377 12736 4715 Blue 7
8 PM Sun 70 70 SW 8 12810 10904 2883 Blue 4
9 PM Sun 68 68 SW 8 11596 9613 1592 Blue 2
10 PM Sun 67 67 SW 8 10950 8947 926 Blue 1
11 PM Sun 66 66 W 5 10281 8248 227 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 65 65 W 5 9632 8021 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 65 65 W 5 9632 8021 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 64 64 W 5 8953 8021 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 61 61 W 5 6682 8021 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 59 59 W 5 5902 8021 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 58 58 N 5 5902 8021 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 59 59 N 5 5902 8021 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 62 62 N 5 7485 8021 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 65 65 N 5 9632 8021 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 67 69 N 5 12215 10251 2230 Blue 3
10 AM Mon 69 73 N 5 14377 12736 4715 Blue 7
11 AM Mon 72 77 S 7 16223 14763 6742 Blue 11
12 Noon Mon 74 80 S 7 17509 16117 8096 Blue 14
1 PM Mon 77 84 S 7 19189 17799 9778 Blue 18
2 PM Mon 78 84 S 7 19189 17799 9778 Blue 18
3 PM Mon 79 84 S 7 19189 17799 9778 Blue 18
4 PM Mon 79 83 S 7 18774 17390 9369 Blue 17
5 PM Mon 77 79 S 7 17088 15675 7654 Blue 13
6 PM Mon 75 75 S 7 15321 13806 5785 Blue 9
7 PM Mon 73 73 S 7 14377 12736 4715 Blue 7
8 PM Mon 71 71 S 7 13384 11540 3519 Blue 5
9 PM Mon 69 69 S 7 12215 10251 2230 Blue 3
10 PM Mon 67 67 S 7 10950 8947 926 Blue 1
11 PM Mon 66 66 S 2 10281 8248 227 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 66 66 S 2 10281 8248 227 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 65 65 S 2 9632 8021 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 64 64 S 2 8953 8021 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 62 62 S 2 7485 8021 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 59 59 S 2 5902 8021 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com