Detailed Predictions for: Mammoth
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.626383, -119.030933, 10973
LZ Altitude (f): 7850
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

27 MAR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 25 25 WSW 13 19 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 26 26 WSW 13 19 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 24 24 SW 19 29 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 24 24 SW 20 29 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 21 21 SW 20 29 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 19 19 SW 17 26 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 22 22 SW 17 26 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 22 22 SW 17 26 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 25 25 SW 17 26 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 27 27 SW 17 26 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 29 30 SW 17 26 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 31 33 SW 25 37 8832 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 32 34 SW 25 37 9323 10973 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 31 34 SW 25 37 9323 10973 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 31 34 SW 32 48 9323 10973 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 32 34 SW 32 48 9323 10973 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 30 31 SW 32 48 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 30 30 SW 36 55 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 30 30 SW 36 55 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 28 28 SW 36 55 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 28 28 SW 37 56 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 27 27 SW 37 56 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 27 27 SW 37 56 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 26 26 SW 42 63 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 27 27 SW 42 63 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 26 26 SW 42 63 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 27 27 SW 44 66 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 26 26 SW 44 66 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 27 27 SW 44 66 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 26 26 SSW 42 63 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 25 25 SSW 42 63 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 25 25 SSW 42 63 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 25 25 SW 34 52 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 23 23 SW 34 52 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 23 23 SW 34 52 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 23 24 SW 39 58 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 23 24 SW 39 58 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 24 25 SW 39 58 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 24 26 SW 37 56 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 24 26 SW 37 56 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 24 25 SW 37 56 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 23 23 SW 31 47 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 22 22 SW 31 47 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 22 22 SW 31 47 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 21 21 SW 28 42 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 21 21 SW 28 42 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 20 20 SW 28 42 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 20 20 SW 25 37 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 19 19 SW 25 37 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 18 18 SW 25 37 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 17 17 SW 24 36 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 15 15 SW 24 36 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 15 15 SW 24 36 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 15 15 SW 23 34 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 15 15 SW 23 34 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 17 17 SW 23 34 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 18 18 SW 20 32 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 19 19 SW 20 32 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 19 19 SW 20 32 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 20 21 SSW 20 31 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 20 21 SSW 20 31 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 21 22 SSW 20 31 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 21 21 SW 20 31 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 21 21 SW 20 31 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 21 21 SW 20 31 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 21 21 SW 20 32 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 21 21 SW 20 32 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 21 21 SW 20 32 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 21 21 SW 21 33 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 21 21 SW 21 33 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 21 21 SW 21 33 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 21 21 SW 18 28 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 21 21 SW 18 28 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 21 21 SW 18 28 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 21 21 SW 14 23 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 21 21 SW 14 23 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 20 20 SW 14 23 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 20 20 SW 14 21 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 20 20 SW 14 21 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 19 19 SW 14 21 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 19 19 SW 17 25 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 19 19 SW 17 25 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 20 20 SW 17 25 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 20 20 SW 17 25 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 20 20 SW 17 25 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 21 21 SW 17 25 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 21 21 SW 18 27 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 21 21 SW 18 27 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 20 20 SW 18 27 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 20 20 SW 20 29 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 20 20 SW 20 29 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 19 19 SW 20 29 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 19 19 WSW 17 26 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 19 19 WSW 17 26 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 18 18 WSW 17 26 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 18 18 WSW 17 25 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 18 18 WSW 17 25 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 17 17 WSW 17 25 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 17 17 SW 16 24 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 17 17 SW 16 24 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 17 17 SW 16 24 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 17 17 WSW 17 25 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 17 17 WSW 17 25 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 18 18 WSW 17 25 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 18 18 WSW 17 25 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 19 19 WSW 17 25 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 19 19 WSW 17 25 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 20 21 WSW 16 23 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 21 22 WSW 16 23 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 21 22 WSW 16 23 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 22 23 WSW 14 21 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 22 22 WSW 14 21 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 22 22 WSW 14 21 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 22 22 W 12 19 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 22 22 W 12 19 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 21 21 W 12 19 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 21 21 NNW 16 23 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 21 21 NNW 16 23 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 20 20 NNW 16 23 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 20 20 N 18 27 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 20 20 N 18 27 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 20 20 N 18 27 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 19 19 NNW 19 29 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 17 17 NNW 19 29 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 15 15 NNW 19 29 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 15 15 NNW 19 29 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 15 15 NNW 19 29 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 17 17 NNW 19 29 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 19 19 NNE 19 29 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 20 20 NNE 19 29 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 22 23 NNE 19 29 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 23 26 NNE 19 28 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 24 28 NNE 19 28 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 25 29 NNE 19 28 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 26 30 N 20 31 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 27 30 N 20 31 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 27 29 N 20 31 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 27 28 N 24 36 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 26 26 N 24 36 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 25 25 N 24 36 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 24 24 N 28 43 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 23 23 N 28 43 8068 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 22 22 N 28 43 8068 10973 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]