Detailed Predictions for: Gunter
Launch Altitude (f): 9604
LZ Altitude (f): 4184
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

21 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Wed 59 59 N 3 5902 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 61 61 N 3 5902 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 65 65 N 3 5902 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 69 69 N 2 6402 9604 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 74 76 N 2 11253 9604 0 Blue 1
10 AM Wed 78 81 N 2 14050 12364 2760 Blue 6
11 AM Wed 82 87 S 6 16737 15318 5714 Blue 12
12 Noon Wed 85 91 S 6 18385 17019 7415 Blue 16
1 PM Wed 88 95 S 6 20314 18640 9036 Blue 20
2 PM Wed 90 96 S 9 20884 19042 9438 Blue 21
3 PM Wed 91 96 S 9 20884 19042 9438 Blue 21
4 PM Wed 90 94 S 9 19717 18231 8627 Blue 19
5 PM Wed 89 91 SW 8 18385 17019 7415 Blue 16
6 PM Wed 85 85 SW 8 15880 14413 4809 Blue 10
7 PM Wed 81 81 SW 8 14050 12364 2760 Blue 6
8 PM Wed 77 77 S 8 11869 9918 314 Blue 2
9 PM Wed 74 74 S 8 9973 9604 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 71 71 S 8 7948 9604 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 70 70 NW 5 7199 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 68 68 NW 5 5902 9604 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 67 67 NW 5 5902 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 65 65 N 5 5902 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 63 63 N 5 5902 9604 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 61 61 N 5 5902 9604 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 60 60 N 2 5902 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 61 61 N 2 5902 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 65 65 N 2 5902 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 69 69 NW 3 6402 9604 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 73 75 NW 3 10610 9604 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 77 80 NW 3 13564 11780 2176 Blue 5
11 AM Thu 81 86 S 7 16312 14871 5267 Blue 11
12 Noon Thu 84 90 S 7 17965 16606 7002 Blue 15
1 PM Thu 87 94 S 7 19717 18231 8627 Blue 19
2 PM Thu 90 96 S 7 20884 19042 9438 Blue 21
3 PM Thu 91 96 S 7 20884 19042 9438 Blue 21
4 PM Thu 91 95 S 7 20314 18640 9036 Blue 20
5 PM Thu 90 92 SE 9 18797 17424 7820 Blue 17
6 PM Thu 86 87 SE 9 16737 15318 5714 Blue 12
7 PM Thu 82 82 SE 9 14523 12927 3323 Blue 7
8 PM Thu 79 79 SE 9 13031 11173 1569 Blue 4
9 PM Thu 75 75 SE 9 10610 9604 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 73 73 SE 9 9329 9604 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 71 71 SE 3 7948 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 69 69 SE 3 6402 9604 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 68 68 SE 3 5902 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 65 65 SE 3 5902 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 62 62 SE 3 5902 9604 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 60 60 SE 3 5902 9604 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 59 59 SE 2 5902 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 61 61 SE 2 5902 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 64 64 SE 2 5902 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 69 69 SE 2 6402 9604 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 73 75 SE 2 10610 9604 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 77 80 SE 2 13564 11780 2176 Blue 5
11 AM Fri 81 87 S 10 16737 15318 5714 Blue 12
12 Noon Fri 84 91 S 10 18385 17019 7415 Blue 16
1 PM Fri 87 94 S 10 19717 18231 8627 Blue 19
2 PM Fri 89 96 S 10 20884 19042 9438 Blue 21
3 PM Fri 91 97 S 10 21431 19463 9859 Blue 22
4 PM Fri 91 95 S 10 20314 18640 9036 Blue 20
5 PM Fri 89 91 S 13 18385 17019 7415 Blue 16
6 PM Fri 85 85 S 13 15880 14413 4809 Blue 10
7 PM Fri 80 80 S 13 13564 11780 2176 Blue 5
8 PM Fri 75 75 S 13 10610 9604 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 72 72 S 13 8656 9604 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 70 70 S 13 7199 9604 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 69 69 S 6 6402 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 68 68 S 6 5902 9604 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 66 66 S 6 5902 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 64 64 S 6 5902 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 62 62 S 6 5902 9604 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 59 59 S 6 5902 9604 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 59 59 S 3 5902 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 61 61 S 3 5902 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 65 65 S 3 5902 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 69 69 S 3 6402 9604 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 73 75 S 3 10610 9604 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 77 81 S 3 14050 12364 2760 Blue 6
11 AM Sat 80 86 S 8 16312 14871 5267 Blue 11
12 Noon Sat 83 90 S 8 17965 16606 7002 Blue 15
1 PM Sat 85 92 S 8 18797 17424 7820 Blue 17
2 PM Sat 87 94 S 8 19717 18231 8627 Blue 19
3 PM Sat 89 95 S 8 20314 18640 9036 Blue 20
4 PM Sat 90 94 S 8 19717 18231 8627 Blue 19
5 PM Sat 90 92 S 12 18797 17424 7820 Blue 17
6 PM Sat 87 88 S 12 17153 15756 6152 Blue 13
7 PM Sat 82 82 S 12 14523 12927 3323 Blue 7
8 PM Sat 77 77 S 12 11869 9918 314 Blue 2
9 PM Sat 74 74 S 12 9973 9604 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 72 72 S 12 8656 9604 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 70 70 S 3 7199 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 69 69 S 3 6402 9604 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 68 68 S 3 5902 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 66 66 S 3 5902 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 63 63 S 3 5902 9604 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 60 60 S 3 5902 9604 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 59 59 N 2 5902 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 61 61 N 2 5902 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 64 64 N 2 5902 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 69 70 N 2 7199 9604 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 73 75 N 2 10610 9604 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 77 81 N 2 14050 12364 2760 Blue 6
11 AM Sun 81 87 S 5 16737 15318 5714 Blue 12
12 Noon Sun 84 91 S 5 18385 17019 7415 Blue 16
1 PM Sun 86 93 S 5 19202 17823 8219 Blue 18
2 PM Sun 88 95 S 5 20314 18640 9036 Blue 20
3 PM Sun 89 95 S 5 20314 18640 9036 Blue 20
4 PM Sun 89 93 S 5 19202 17823 8219 Blue 18
5 PM Sun 88 90 S 8 17965 16606 7002 Blue 15
6 PM Sun 86 87 S 8 16737 15318 5714 Blue 12
7 PM Sun 83 83 S 8 14986 13464 3860 Blue 8
8 PM Sun 79 79 S 8 13031 11173 1569 Blue 4
9 PM Sun 75 75 S 8 10610 9604 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 72 72 S 8 8656 9604 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 70 70 SW 2 7199 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 69 69 SW 2 6402 9604 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 70 70 SW 2 7199 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 69 69 SW 2 6402 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 65 65 SW 2 5902 9604 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 62 62 SW 2 5902 9604 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 60 60 N 3 5902 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 62 62 N 3 5902 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 66 66 N 3 5902 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 71 71 N 3 7948 9604 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 75 77 N 3 11869 9918 314 Blue 2
10 AM Mon 78 82 N 3 14523 12927 3323 Blue 7
11 AM Mon 81 86 S 6 16312 14871 5267 Blue 11
12 Noon Mon 84 90 S 6 17965 16606 7002 Blue 15
1 PM Mon 87 94 S 6 19717 18231 8627 Blue 19
2 PM Mon 89 95 S 6 20314 18640 9036 Blue 20
3 PM Mon 90 95 S 6 20314 18640 9036 Blue 20
4 PM Mon 90 94 S 6 19717 18231 8627 Blue 19
5 PM Mon 88 90 S 7 17965 16606 7002 Blue 15
6 PM Mon 86 86 S 7 16312 14871 5267 Blue 11
7 PM Mon 82 82 S 7 14523 12927 3323 Blue 7
8 PM Mon 79 79 S 7 13031 11173 1569 Blue 4
9 PM Mon 76 76 S 7 11253 9604 0 Blue 1
10 PM Mon 73 73 S 7 9329 9604 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 71 71 S 2 7948 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 71 71 S 2 7948 9604 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 71 71 S 2 7948 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 70 70 S 2 7199 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 67 67 S 2 5902 9604 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 64 64 S 2 5902 9604 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com