Detailed Predictions for: Garlock
Launch Altitude (f): 4770
LZ Altitude (f): 1970
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

21 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Wed 71 71 W 7 2992 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 69 69 W 8 2992 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 69 69 W 7 2992 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 73 74 NW 6 2992 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 76 78 W 3 4510 4770 0 Blue 3
10 AM Wed 80 84 SE 1 5325 4781 11 Blue 9
11 AM Wed 84 90 S 3 8458 6266 1496 Blue 15
12 Noon Wed 87 94 S 8 10919 8997 4227 Blue 18
1 PM Wed 91 99 S 9 13653 11934 7164 Blue 23
2 PM Wed 93 100 SW 9 14111 12480 7710 Blue 24
3 PM Wed 94 100 SW 14 14111 12480 7710 Blue 24
4 PM Wed 93 97 SW 16 12632 10783 6013 Blue 21
5 PM Wed 93 95 W 16 11511 9604 4834 Blue 19
6 PM Wed 91 92 W 16 9715 7701 2931 Blue 17
7 PM Wed 88 88 W 16 7077 5574 804 Blue 13
8 PM Wed 83 83 W 18 5025 4770 0 Blue 8
9 PM Wed 82 82 W 16 4885 4770 0 Blue 7
10 PM Wed 80 80 W 15 4693 4770 0 Blue 5
11 PM Wed 78 78 W 16 4510 4770 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Thu 77 77 W 10 4419 4770 0 Blue 2
1 AM Thu 76 76 W 7 4328 4770 0 Blue 1
2 AM Thu 74 74 W 7 2992 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 73 73 W 5 2992 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 72 72 W 3 2992 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 70 70 W 5 2992 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 69 69 W 7 2992 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 69 69 SW 7 2992 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 72 73 W 6 2992 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 75 77 SW 7 4419 4770 0 Blue 2
10 AM Thu 78 82 S 9 4885 4770 0 Blue 7
11 AM Thu 81 87 SW 8 6326 5311 541 Blue 12
12 Noon Thu 84 91 SW 8 9100 7004 2234 Blue 16
1 PM Thu 88 96 SW 8 12082 10189 5419 Blue 20
2 PM Thu 90 96 SW 15 12082 10189 5419 Blue 20
3 PM Thu 91 96 SW 15 12082 10189 5419 Blue 20
4 PM Thu 92 95 SW 15 11511 9604 4834 Blue 19
5 PM Thu 91 93 SW 18 10307 8363 3593 Blue 17
6 PM Thu 89 89 SW 18 7786 5789 1019 Blue 14
7 PM Thu 87 87 SW 18 6326 5311 541 Blue 12
8 PM Thu 84 84 SW 14 5325 4781 11 Blue 9
9 PM Thu 82 82 SW 14 4885 4770 0 Blue 7
10 PM Thu 80 80 SW 14 4693 4770 0 Blue 5
11 PM Thu 78 78 SW 10 4510 4770 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Fri 77 77 SW 10 4419 4770 0 Blue 2
1 AM Fri 77 77 SW 10 4419 4770 0 Blue 2
2 AM Fri 76 76 SW 8 4328 4770 0 Blue 1
3 AM Fri 74 74 SW 8 2992 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 73 73 SW 8 2992 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 72 72 W 6 2992 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 72 72 W 6 2992 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 73 73 W 6 2992 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 74 74 SW 6 2992 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 76 78 SW 6 4510 4770 0 Blue 3
10 AM Fri 79 82 SW 6 4885 4770 0 Blue 7
11 AM Fri 82 87 S 10 6326 5311 541 Blue 12
12 Noon Fri 85 91 S 10 9100 7004 2234 Blue 16
1 PM Fri 88 95 S 10 11511 9604 4834 Blue 19
2 PM Fri 90 97 S 14 12632 10783 6013 Blue 21
3 PM Fri 91 97 S 14 12632 10783 6013 Blue 21
4 PM Fri 91 95 S 14 11511 9604 4834 Blue 19
5 PM Fri 91 93 S 15 10307 8363 3593 Blue 17
6 PM Fri 89 90 S 15 8458 6266 1496 Blue 15
7 PM Fri 87 87 S 15 6326 5311 541 Blue 12
8 PM Fri 84 84 SW 14 5325 4781 11 Blue 9
9 PM Fri 82 82 SW 14 4885 4770 0 Blue 7
10 PM Fri 80 80 SW 14 4693 4770 0 Blue 5
11 PM Fri 79 79 SW 9 4601 4770 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sat 78 78 SW 9 4510 4770 0 Blue 3
1 AM Sat 77 77 SW 9 4419 4770 0 Blue 2
2 AM Sat 76 76 SW 7 4328 4770 0 Blue 1
3 AM Sat 74 74 SW 7 2992 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 73 73 SW 7 2992 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 72 72 W 6 2992 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 72 72 W 6 2992 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 73 73 W 6 2992 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 75 76 S 6 4328 4770 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sat 78 80 S 6 4693 4770 0 Blue 5
10 AM Sat 81 85 S 6 5586 4877 107 Blue 10
11 AM Sat 84 90 S 10 8458 6266 1496 Blue 15
12 Noon Sat 87 94 S 10 10919 8997 4227 Blue 18
1 PM Sat 89 97 S 10 12632 10783 6013 Blue 21
2 PM Sat 91 98 S 15 13164 11370 6600 Blue 22
3 PM Sat 93 99 S 15 13653 11934 7164 Blue 23
4 PM Sat 93 97 S 15 12632 10783 6013 Blue 21
5 PM Sat 93 95 SW 17 11511 9604 4834 Blue 19
6 PM Sat 91 91 SW 17 9100 7004 2234 Blue 16
7 PM Sat 88 88 SW 17 7077 5574 804 Blue 13
8 PM Sat 85 85 SW 14 5586 4877 107 Blue 10
9 PM Sat 83 83 SW 14 5025 4770 0 Blue 8
10 PM Sat 81 81 SW 14 4784 4770 0 Blue 6
11 PM Sat 80 80 SW 10 4693 4770 0 Blue 5
12 Midnight Sun 79 79 SW 10 4601 4770 0 Blue 4
1 AM Sun 79 79 SW 10 4601 4770 0 Blue 4
2 AM Sun 78 78 SW 8 4510 4770 0 Blue 3
3 AM Sun 76 76 SW 8 4328 4770 0 Blue 1
4 AM Sun 75 75 SW 8 3687 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 74 74 W 6 2992 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 74 74 W 6 2992 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 74 74 W 6 2992 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 76 77 SW 6 4419 4770 0 Blue 2
9 AM Sun 79 81 SW 6 4784 4770 0 Blue 6
10 AM Sun 82 86 SW 6 5802 5014 244 Blue 11
11 AM Sun 85 90 S 8 8458 6266 1496 Blue 15
12 Noon Sun 88 95 S 8 11511 9604 4834 Blue 19
1 PM Sun 91 98 S 8 13164 11370 6600 Blue 22
2 PM Sun 93 100 SW 14 14111 12480 7710 Blue 24
3 PM Sun 94 99 SW 14 13653 11934 7164 Blue 23
4 PM Sun 95 99 SW 14 13653 11934 7164 Blue 23
5 PM Sun 94 95 SW 17 11511 9604 4834 Blue 19
6 PM Sun 92 92 SW 17 9715 7701 2931 Blue 17
7 PM Sun 90 90 SW 17 8458 6266 1496 Blue 15
8 PM Sun 87 87 SW 15 6326 5311 541 Blue 12
9 PM Sun 85 85 SW 15 5586 4877 107 Blue 10
10 PM Sun 83 83 SW 15 5025 4770 0 Blue 8
11 PM Sun 82 82 W 10 4885 4770 0 Blue 7
12 Midnight Mon 81 81 W 10 4784 4770 0 Blue 6
1 AM Mon 81 81 W 10 4784 4770 0 Blue 6
2 AM Mon 80 80 W 9 4693 4770 0 Blue 5
3 AM Mon 78 78 W 9 4510 4770 0 Blue 3
4 AM Mon 77 77 W 9 4419 4770 0 Blue 2
5 AM Mon 76 76 W 6 4328 4770 0 Blue 1
6 AM Mon 76 76 W 6 4328 4770 0 Blue 1
7 AM Mon 77 77 W 6 4419 4770 0 Blue 2
8 AM Mon 78 78 W 6 4510 4770 0 Blue 3
9 AM Mon 80 81 W 6 4784 4770 0 Blue 6
10 AM Mon 82 83 W 6 5025 4770 0 Blue 8
11 AM Mon 85 87 S 8 6326 5311 541 Blue 12
12 Noon Mon 88 91 S 8 9100 7004 2234 Blue 16
1 PM Mon 91 94 S 8 10919 8997 4227 Blue 18
2 PM Mon 93 96 S 13 12082 10189 5419 Blue 20
3 PM Mon 94 96 S 13 12082 10189 5419 Blue 20
4 PM Mon 94 95 S 13 11511 9604 4834 Blue 19
5 PM Mon 94 95 S 15 11511 9604 4834 Blue 19
6 PM Mon 92 92 S 15 9715 7701 2931 Blue 17
7 PM Mon 90 90 S 15 8458 6266 1496 Blue 15
8 PM Mon 87 87 SW 14 6326 5311 541 Blue 12
9 PM Mon 85 85 SW 14 5586 4877 107 Blue 10
10 PM Mon 84 84 SW 14 5325 4781 11 Blue 9
11 PM Mon 83 83 SW 10 5025 4770 0 Blue 8
12 Midnight Tue 82 82 SW 10 4885 4770 0 Blue 7
1 AM Tue 81 81 SW 10 4784 4770 0 Blue 6
2 AM Tue 80 80 W 7 4693 4770 0 Blue 5
3 AM Tue 78 78 W 7 4510 4770 0 Blue 3
4 AM Tue 77 77 W 7 4419 4770 0 Blue 2

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com