Detailed Predictions for: Flynns
Launch Altitude (f): 5692
LZ Altitude (f): 4137
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

21 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Wed 66 66 N 6 4980 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 66 66 N 5 4980 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 65 65 NW 3 4980 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 69 70 NW 3 4980 5692 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 74 76 W 5 5520 5692 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 79 83 W 6 9657 7603 1911 Blue 7
11 AM Wed 83 88 SW 7 12661 10789 5097 Blue 12
12 Noon Wed 87 93 SW 8 15077 13579 7887 Blue 17
1 PM Wed 89 96 SW 8 16363 14939 9247 Blue 20
2 PM Wed 91 97 SW 9 16774 15373 9681 Blue 21
3 PM Wed 92 97 SW 9 16774 15373 9681 Blue 21
4 PM Wed 91 94 SW 10 15515 14043 8351 Blue 18
5 PM Wed 91 93 SW 10 15077 13579 7887 Blue 17
6 PM Wed 89 89 SW 10 13207 11393 5701 Blue 13
7 PM Wed 86 86 S 10 11508 9574 3882 Blue 10
8 PM Wed 83 83 SE 10 9657 7603 1911 Blue 7
9 PM Wed 80 80 E 8 7653 5739 47 Blue 4
10 PM Wed 78 78 N 6 6125 5692 0 Blue 2
11 PM Wed 76 76 NW 5 5520 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 74 74 NW 5 4980 5692 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 72 72 NW 6 4980 5692 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 71 71 N 7 4980 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 70 70 N 7 4980 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 69 69 N 7 4980 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 67 67 N 6 4980 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 66 66 N 5 4980 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 68 68 NW 3 4980 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 71 71 NW 2 4980 5692 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 75 77 W 3 5741 5692 0 Blue 1
10 AM Thu 80 84 W 5 10268 8291 2599 Blue 8
11 AM Thu 84 89 SW 7 13207 11393 5701 Blue 13
12 Noon Thu 87 94 SW 8 15515 14043 8351 Blue 18
1 PM Thu 89 96 SW 8 16363 14939 9247 Blue 20
2 PM Thu 90 97 SW 8 16774 15373 9681 Blue 21
3 PM Thu 91 96 SW 9 16363 14939 9247 Blue 20
4 PM Thu 91 95 S 9 15943 14496 8804 Blue 19
5 PM Thu 90 92 S 10 14630 13074 7382 Blue 16
6 PM Thu 88 88 S 12 12661 10789 5097 Blue 12
7 PM Thu 85 85 S 14 10896 8947 3255 Blue 9
8 PM Thu 82 82 SE 14 9019 6877 1185 Blue 6
9 PM Thu 79 79 SE 12 6913 5692 0 Blue 3
10 PM Thu 77 77 SE 9 5741 5692 0 Blue 1
11 PM Thu 75 75 SE 7 5227 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 74 74 E 6 4980 5692 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 72 72 NE 5 4980 5692 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 70 70 N 5 4980 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 68 68 N 6 4980 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 67 67 N 7 4980 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 66 66 N 8 4980 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 66 66 NE 7 4980 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 68 68 E 6 4980 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 71 71 SE 6 4980 5692 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 75 77 SE 7 5741 5692 0 Blue 1
10 AM Fri 79 83 SE 8 9657 7603 1911 Blue 7
11 AM Fri 83 88 SE 10 12661 10789 5097 Blue 12
12 Noon Fri 87 93 SE 12 15077 13579 7887 Blue 17
1 PM Fri 89 96 SE 13 16363 14939 9247 Blue 20
2 PM Fri 90 97 SE 14 16774 15373 9681 Blue 21
3 PM Fri 91 96 SE 14 16363 14939 9247 Blue 20
4 PM Fri 91 94 S 14 15515 14043 8351 Blue 18
5 PM Fri 89 91 S 14 14173 12533 6841 Blue 15
6 PM Fri 87 87 S 15 12095 10177 4485 Blue 11
7 PM Fri 84 84 S 17 10268 8291 2599 Blue 8
8 PM Fri 82 82 SE 17 9019 6877 1185 Blue 6
9 PM Fri 79 79 S 15 6913 5692 0 Blue 3
10 PM Fri 77 77 S 12 5741 5692 0 Blue 1
11 PM Fri 76 76 S 9 5520 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 74 74 S 8 4980 5692 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 73 73 S 7 4980 5692 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 71 71 S 7 4980 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 69 69 S 7 4980 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 68 68 S 8 4980 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 67 67 S 8 4980 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 67 67 S 7 4980 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 69 69 S 6 4980 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 72 72 S 5 4980 5692 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 76 76 S 6 5520 5692 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 81 82 S 7 9019 6877 1185 Blue 6
11 AM Sat 85 88 S 9 12661 10789 5097 Blue 12
12 Noon Sat 88 92 S 10 14630 13074 7382 Blue 16
1 PM Sat 90 95 S 12 15943 14496 8804 Blue 19
2 PM Sat 92 97 S 12 16774 15373 9681 Blue 21
3 PM Sat 93 97 S 12 16774 15373 9681 Blue 21
4 PM Sat 93 96 S 13 16363 14939 9247 Blue 20
5 PM Sat 92 94 S 13 15515 14043 8351 Blue 18
6 PM Sat 90 90 S 14 13705 11974 6282 Blue 14
7 PM Sat 87 87 SE 16 12095 10177 4485 Blue 11
8 PM Sat 84 84 SE 16 10268 8291 2599 Blue 8
9 PM Sat 81 81 SE 14 8353 6106 414 Blue 5
10 PM Sat 79 79 S 10 6913 5692 0 Blue 3
11 PM Sat 77 77 S 8 5741 5692 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sun 76 76 SE 7 5520 5692 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 74 74 NE 7 4980 5692 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 72 72 N 7 4980 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 70 70 N 7 4980 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 69 69 N 8 4980 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 68 68 N 8 4980 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 68 68 N 7 4980 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 70 70 N 5 4980 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 73 73 NE 3 4980 5692 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 77 79 E 3 6913 5692 0 Blue 3
10 AM Sun 81 85 SE 6 10896 8947 3255 Blue 9
11 AM Sun 85 91 S 7 14173 12533 6841 Blue 15
12 Noon Sun 88 95 S 8 15943 14496 8804 Blue 19
1 PM Sun 91 98 S 9 17179 15797 10105 Blue 22
2 PM Sun 92 99 SE 10 17576 16214 10522 Blue 23
3 PM Sun 93 98 S 10 17179 15797 10105 Blue 22
4 PM Sun 93 97 S 10 16774 15373 9681 Blue 21
5 PM Sun 92 94 S 10 15515 14043 8351 Blue 18
6 PM Sun 90 90 S 12 13705 11974 6282 Blue 14
7 PM Sun 88 88 SE 14 12661 10789 5097 Blue 12
8 PM Sun 85 85 SE 14 10896 8947 3255 Blue 9
9 PM Sun 82 82 E 12 9019 6877 1185 Blue 6
10 PM Sun 80 80 N 9 7653 5739 47 Blue 4
11 PM Sun 77 77 N 7 5741 5692 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Mon 75 75 N 6 5227 5692 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 74 74 N 6 4980 5692 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 72 72 N 6 4980 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 71 71 N 6 4980 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 70 70 N 7 4980 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 69 69 N 7 4980 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 69 69 N 6 4980 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 71 71 NW 3 4980 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 73 73 W 2 4980 5692 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 77 77 W 2 5741 5692 0 Blue 1
10 AM Mon 82 83 S 5 9657 7603 1911 Blue 7
11 AM Mon 87 89 SE 6 13207 11393 5701 Blue 13
12 Noon Mon 90 92 SE 7 14630 13074 7382 Blue 16
1 PM Mon 92 94 S 9 15515 14043 8351 Blue 18
2 PM Mon 93 95 S 10 15943 14496 8804 Blue 19
3 PM Mon 94 95 S 10 15943 14496 8804 Blue 19
4 PM Mon 94 95 S 10 15943 14496 8804 Blue 19
5 PM Mon 93 93 S 10 15077 13579 7887 Blue 17
6 PM Mon 91 91 S 12 14173 12533 6841 Blue 15
7 PM Mon 88 88 S 13 12661 10789 5097 Blue 12
8 PM Mon 85 85 SE 13 10896 8947 3255 Blue 9
9 PM Mon 82 82 S 10 9019 6877 1185 Blue 6
10 PM Mon 80 80 W 7 7653 5739 47 Blue 4
11 PM Mon 78 78 NW 5 6125 5692 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Tue 76 76 NW 5 5520 5692 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 74 74 NW 5 4980 5692 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 72 72 N 6 4980 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 71 71 N 7 4980 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 70 70 N 7 4980 5692 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com