Detailed Predictions for: Copper Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 8939
LZ Altitude (f): 7123
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

21 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Wed 49 49 N 1 5902 8939 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 52 52 N 1 5902 8939 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 53 53 N 1 5902 8939 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 56 56 S 1 5902 8939 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 59 61 S 1 7940 8939 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 63 66 S 1 11357 9361 422 Blue 1
11 AM Wed 66 71 SE 5 14207 12529 3590 Blue 6
12 Noon Wed 70 76 SE 5 16519 15072 6133 Blue 11
1 PM Wed 72 79 SE 5 17793 16413 7474 Blue 14
2 PM Wed 74 80 W 8 18219 16842 7903 Blue 15
3 PM Wed 76 81 W 8 18647 17263 8324 Blue 16
4 PM Wed 76 80 W 8 18219 16842 7903 Blue 15
5 PM Wed 74 76 W 12 16519 15072 6133 Blue 11
6 PM Wed 71 71 W 12 14207 12529 3590 Blue 6
7 PM Wed 67 67 W 12 11989 10013 1074 Blue 2
8 PM Wed 64 64 W 9 10033 8939 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 62 62 W 9 8673 8939 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 61 61 W 9 7940 8939 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 61 61 W 6 7940 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 59 59 W 6 6331 8939 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 57 57 W 6 5902 8939 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 55 55 SW 3 5902 8939 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 54 54 SW 3 5902 8939 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 53 53 SW 3 5902 8939 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 53 53 S 2 5902 8939 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 53 53 S 2 5902 8939 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 54 54 S 2 5902 8939 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 56 56 S 1 5902 8939 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 58 59 S 1 6331 8939 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 62 65 S 1 10695 8939 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 66 71 SW 3 14207 12529 3590 Blue 6
12 Noon Thu 69 75 SW 3 16077 14605 5666 Blue 10
1 PM Thu 73 80 SW 3 18219 16842 7903 Blue 15
2 PM Thu 75 81 W 3 18647 17263 8324 Blue 16
3 PM Thu 77 82 W 3 19066 17676 8737 Blue 17
4 PM Thu 77 81 W 3 18647 17263 8324 Blue 16
5 PM Thu 75 77 NW 7 16952 15529 6590 Blue 12
6 PM Thu 72 73 NW 7 15164 13636 4697 Blue 8
7 PM Thu 69 69 NW 7 13179 11310 2371 Blue 4
8 PM Thu 66 66 NW 7 11357 9361 422 Blue 1
9 PM Thu 64 64 NW 7 10033 8939 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 63 63 NW 7 9369 8939 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 61 61 E 2 7940 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 60 60 E 2 7163 8939 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 57 57 E 2 5902 8939 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 56 56 E 2 5902 8939 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 55 55 E 2 5902 8939 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 54 54 E 2 5902 8939 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 54 54 SE 2 5902 8939 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 54 54 SE 2 5902 8939 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 55 55 SE 2 5902 8939 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 56 56 SE 2 5902 8939 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 59 61 SE 2 7940 8939 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 63 66 SE 2 11357 9361 422 Blue 1
11 AM Fri 67 72 S 3 14691 13105 4166 Blue 7
12 Noon Fri 71 77 S 3 16952 15529 6590 Blue 12
1 PM Fri 74 81 S 3 18647 17263 8324 Blue 16
2 PM Fri 76 82 S 3 19066 17676 8737 Blue 17
3 PM Fri 77 82 S 3 19066 17676 8737 Blue 17
4 PM Fri 77 81 S 3 18647 17263 8324 Blue 16
5 PM Fri 75 77 W 9 16952 15529 6590 Blue 12
6 PM Fri 71 71 W 9 14207 12529 3590 Blue 6
7 PM Fri 67 67 W 9 11989 10013 1074 Blue 2
8 PM Fri 64 64 W 9 10033 8939 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 62 62 W 9 8673 8939 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 62 62 W 9 8673 8939 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 62 62 SW 5 8673 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 61 61 SW 5 7940 8939 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 58 58 SW 5 5902 8939 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 57 57 SW 5 5902 8939 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 56 56 SW 5 5902 8939 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 55 55 SW 5 5902 8939 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 55 55 SW 5 5902 8939 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 55 55 SW 5 5902 8939 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 55 55 SW 5 5902 8939 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 56 56 SW 5 5902 8939 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 59 61 SW 5 7940 8939 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 62 66 SW 5 11357 9361 422 Blue 1
11 AM Sat 65 70 SE 5 13710 11932 2993 Blue 5
12 Noon Sat 67 74 SE 5 15625 14127 5188 Blue 9
1 PM Sat 69 76 SE 5 16519 15072 6133 Blue 11
2 PM Sat 71 78 SE 5 17376 15976 7037 Blue 13
3 PM Sat 74 80 SE 5 18219 16842 7903 Blue 15
4 PM Sat 76 80 SE 5 18219 16842 7903 Blue 15
5 PM Sat 76 78 W 10 17376 15976 7037 Blue 13
6 PM Sat 72 72 W 10 14691 13105 4166 Blue 7
7 PM Sat 67 67 W 10 11989 10013 1074 Blue 2
8 PM Sat 62 62 W 10 8673 8939 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 61 61 W 10 7940 8939 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 61 61 W 10 7940 8939 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 61 61 SW 5 7940 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 60 60 SW 5 7163 8939 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 59 59 SW 5 6331 8939 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 57 57 SW 5 5902 8939 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 56 56 SW 5 5902 8939 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 55 55 SW 5 5902 8939 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 54 54 W 5 5902 8939 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 53 53 W 5 5902 8939 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 53 53 W 5 5902 8939 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 54 54 W 5 5902 8939 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 57 59 W 5 6331 8939 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 62 66 W 5 11357 9361 422 Blue 1
11 AM Sun 66 71 S 6 14207 12529 3590 Blue 6
12 Noon Sun 69 76 S 6 16519 15072 6133 Blue 11
1 PM Sun 71 78 S 6 17376 15976 7037 Blue 13
2 PM Sun 73 80 S 6 18219 16842 7903 Blue 15
3 PM Sun 74 80 S 6 18219 16842 7903 Blue 15
4 PM Sun 74 78 S 6 17376 15976 7037 Blue 13
5 PM Sun 73 75 W 12 16077 14605 5666 Blue 10
6 PM Sun 71 72 W 12 14691 13105 4166 Blue 7
7 PM Sun 69 69 W 12 13179 11310 2371 Blue 4
8 PM Sun 66 66 W 12 11357 9361 422 Blue 1
9 PM Sun 64 64 W 12 10033 8939 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 63 63 W 12 9369 8939 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 62 62 SW 3 8673 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 62 62 SW 3 8673 8939 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 61 61 SW 3 7940 8939 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 60 60 SW 3 7163 8939 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 57 57 SW 3 5902 8939 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 55 55 SW 3 5902 8939 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 54 54 W 3 5902 8939 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 54 54 W 3 5902 8939 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 56 56 W 3 5902 8939 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 58 58 W 3 5902 8939 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 61 63 W 3 9369 8939 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 63 67 W 3 11989 10013 1074 Blue 2
11 AM Mon 66 71 SW 3 14207 12529 3590 Blue 6
12 Noon Mon 69 75 SW 3 16077 14605 5666 Blue 10
1 PM Mon 71 78 SW 3 17376 15976 7037 Blue 13
2 PM Mon 73 79 SW 3 17793 16413 7474 Blue 14
3 PM Mon 74 79 SW 3 17793 16413 7474 Blue 14
4 PM Mon 74 78 SW 3 17376 15976 7037 Blue 13
5 PM Mon 73 75 W 9 16077 14605 5666 Blue 10
6 PM Mon 71 71 W 9 14207 12529 3590 Blue 6
7 PM Mon 68 68 W 9 12595 10660 1721 Blue 3
8 PM Mon 65 65 W 9 10695 8939 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 63 63 W 9 9369 8939 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 62 62 W 9 8673 8939 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 61 61 NW 2 7940 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 62 62 NW 2 8673 8939 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 62 62 NW 2 8673 8939 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 61 61 NW 2 7940 8939 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 59 59 NW 2 6331 8939 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 56 56 NW 2 5902 8939 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com