Detailed Predictions for: Bria Dog Ridge
Launch Altitude (f): 8471
LZ Altitude (f): 7200
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

21 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Wed 56 56 NW 5 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 58 58 NW 5 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 60 60 NW 5 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 62 62 NW 3 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 66 68 NW 3 10287 8471 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 71 74 NW 3 13872 12136 3665 Blue 6
11 AM Wed 74 79 SE 7 16197 14738 6267 Blue 11
12 Noon Wed 77 83 SE 7 17887 16516 8045 Blue 15
1 PM Wed 79 86 SE 7 19147 17760 9289 Blue 17
2 PM Wed 81 87 SE 8 19647 18174 9703 Blue 18
3 PM Wed 82 87 SE 8 19647 18174 9703 Blue 18
4 PM Wed 82 86 SE 8 19147 17760 9289 Blue 17
5 PM Wed 81 83 SW 10 17887 16516 8045 Blue 15
6 PM Wed 77 77 SW 10 15299 13786 5315 Blue 9
7 PM Wed 73 73 SW 10 13370 11530 3059 Blue 5
8 PM Wed 69 69 W 9 10951 8954 483 Blue 1
9 PM Wed 67 67 W 9 9642 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 65 65 W 9 8260 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 64 64 NW 8 7513 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 63 63 NW 8 6718 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 61 61 NW 8 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 60 60 NW 6 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 58 58 NW 6 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 57 57 NW 6 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 56 56 N 5 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 57 57 N 5 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 58 58 N 5 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 61 61 NW 5 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 66 68 NW 5 10287 8471 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 71 74 NW 5 13872 12136 3665 Blue 6
11 AM Thu 75 80 E 7 16631 15197 6726 Blue 12
12 Noon Thu 79 85 E 7 18734 17353 8882 Blue 16
1 PM Thu 81 88 E 7 20260 18592 10121 Blue 19
2 PM Thu 83 89 SE 7 20845 19002 10531 Blue 20
3 PM Thu 84 89 SE 7 20845 19002 10531 Blue 20
4 PM Thu 84 88 SE 7 20260 18592 10121 Blue 19
5 PM Thu 83 85 N 7 18734 17353 8882 Blue 16
6 PM Thu 79 80 N 7 16631 15197 6726 Blue 12
7 PM Thu 75 75 N 7 14360 12719 4248 Blue 7
8 PM Thu 71 71 N 7 12208 10249 1778 Blue 3
9 PM Thu 68 68 N 7 10287 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 66 66 N 7 8968 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 64 64 N 5 7513 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 63 63 N 5 6718 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 61 61 N 5 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 59 59 N 5 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 58 58 N 5 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 57 57 N 5 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 57 57 SW 3 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 57 57 SW 3 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 59 59 SW 3 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 61 61 SW 3 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 65 67 SW 3 9642 8471 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 69 72 SW 3 12800 10898 2427 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 73 78 SE 10 15753 14268 5797 Blue 10
12 Noon Fri 76 83 SE 10 17887 16516 8045 Blue 15
1 PM Fri 79 86 SE 10 19147 17760 9289 Blue 17
2 PM Fri 80 87 SE 10 19647 18174 9703 Blue 18
3 PM Fri 82 88 SE 10 20260 18592 10121 Blue 19
4 PM Fri 82 86 SE 10 19147 17760 9289 Blue 17
5 PM Fri 80 82 S 10 17476 16085 7614 Blue 14
6 PM Fri 77 77 S 10 15299 13786 5315 Blue 9
7 PM Fri 72 72 S 10 12800 10898 2427 Blue 4
8 PM Fri 67 67 S 10 9642 8471 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 64 64 S 10 7513 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 63 63 S 10 6718 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 62 62 SW 6 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 61 61 SW 6 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 60 60 SW 6 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 59 59 SW 6 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 57 57 SW 6 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 56 56 SW 6 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 55 55 S 6 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 56 56 S 6 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 58 58 S 6 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 61 61 S 6 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 64 66 S 6 8968 8471 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 68 72 S 6 12800 10898 2427 Blue 4
11 AM Sat 72 78 SE 8 15753 14268 5797 Blue 10
12 Noon Sat 75 82 SE 8 17476 16085 7614 Blue 14
1 PM Sat 78 85 SE 8 18734 17353 8882 Blue 16
2 PM Sat 80 87 SE 8 19647 18174 9703 Blue 18
3 PM Sat 81 87 SE 8 19647 18174 9703 Blue 18
4 PM Sat 82 86 SE 8 19147 17760 9289 Blue 17
5 PM Sat 80 82 S 9 17476 16085 7614 Blue 14
6 PM Sat 75 75 S 9 14360 12719 4248 Blue 7
7 PM Sat 69 69 S 9 10951 8954 483 Blue 1
8 PM Sat 65 65 S 9 8260 8471 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 62 62 S 9 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 61 61 S 9 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 61 61 SW 5 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 61 61 SW 5 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 61 61 SW 5 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 60 60 SW 5 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 58 58 SW 5 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 55 55 SW 5 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 54 54 W 6 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 55 55 W 6 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 57 57 W 6 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 61 61 W 6 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 64 66 W 6 8968 8471 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 68 72 W 6 12800 10898 2427 Blue 4
11 AM Sun 72 78 E 6 15753 14268 5797 Blue 10
12 Noon Sun 75 82 E 6 17476 16085 7614 Blue 14
1 PM Sun 78 85 E 6 18734 17353 8882 Blue 16
2 PM Sun 80 87 E 6 19647 18174 9703 Blue 18
3 PM Sun 80 86 E 6 19147 17760 9289 Blue 17
4 PM Sun 79 83 E 6 17887 16516 8045 Blue 15
5 PM Sun 77 79 SW 8 16197 14738 6267 Blue 11
6 PM Sun 73 74 SW 8 13872 12136 3665 Blue 6
7 PM Sun 70 70 SW 8 11593 9615 1144 Blue 2
8 PM Sun 67 67 SW 8 9642 8471 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 65 65 SW 8 8260 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 63 63 SW 8 6718 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 63 63 W 3 6718 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 63 63 W 3 6718 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 63 63 W 3 6718 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 62 62 W 3 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 59 59 W 3 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 56 56 W 3 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 55 55 NW 6 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 56 56 NW 6 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 59 59 NW 6 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 63 63 NW 6 6718 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 66 68 NW 6 10287 8471 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 69 73 NW 6 13370 11530 3059 Blue 5
11 AM Mon 72 77 E 6 15299 13786 5315 Blue 9
12 Noon Mon 75 81 E 6 17058 15646 7175 Blue 13
1 PM Mon 78 85 E 6 18734 17353 8882 Blue 16
2 PM Mon 80 86 E 6 19147 17760 9289 Blue 17
3 PM Mon 80 85 E 6 18734 17353 8882 Blue 16
4 PM Mon 79 83 E 6 17887 16516 8045 Blue 15
5 PM Mon 77 79 SW 6 16197 14738 6267 Blue 11
6 PM Mon 74 74 SW 6 13872 12136 3665 Blue 6
7 PM Mon 71 71 SW 6 12208 10249 1778 Blue 3
8 PM Mon 68 68 SW 6 10287 8471 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 66 66 SW 6 8968 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 65 65 SW 6 8260 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 64 64 NW 2 7513 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 64 64 NW 2 7513 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 64 64 NW 2 7513 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 63 63 NW 2 6718 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 61 61 NW 2 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 59 59 NW 2 5902 8471 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com