Detailed Predictions for: 9-Mile
Launch Altitude (f): 5616
LZ Altitude (f): 4776
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

21 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Wed 66 66 NW 18 4275 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 69 69 NW 18 4275 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 63 63 N 17 4275 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 75 76 N 16 4799 5616 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 81 83 NE 14 7272 5627 11 Blue 6
10 AM Wed 85 89 E 12 11147 9214 3598 Blue 12
11 AM Wed 88 94 E 10 13868 12179 6563 Blue 17
12 Noon Wed 89 96 SE 10 14777 13254 7638 Blue 19
1 PM Wed 92 100 S 12 16480 15068 9452 Blue 23
2 PM Wed 93 100 S 13 16480 15068 9452 Blue 23
3 PM Wed 93 99 S 15 16067 14633 9017 Blue 22
4 PM Wed 93 97 SW 18 15216 13733 8117 Blue 20
5 PM Wed 91 93 SW 21 13398 11613 5997 Blue 16
6 PM Wed 88 89 W 23 11147 9214 3598 Blue 12
7 PM Wed 80 80 W 24 5633 5616 0 Blue 3
8 PM Wed 73 73 W 24 4523 5616 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 69 69 W 24 4275 5616 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 67 67 W 23 4275 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 67 67 W 22 4275 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 67 67 W 21 4275 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 67 67 NW 21 4275 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 65 65 NW 20 4275 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 65 65 NW 20 4275 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 65 65 NW 18 4275 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 64 64 NW 18 4275 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 65 65 NW 17 4275 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 67 67 NW 16 4275 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 76 77 NW 15 4920 5616 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 81 83 N 14 7272 5627 11 Blue 6
10 AM Thu 85 89 E 12 11147 9214 3598 Blue 12
11 AM Thu 87 93 SE 10 13398 11613 5997 Blue 16
12 Noon Thu 88 95 SE 12 14328 12725 7109 Blue 18
1 PM Thu 90 96 S 14 14777 13254 7638 Blue 19
2 PM Thu 91 96 S 16 14777 13254 7638 Blue 19
3 PM Thu 92 97 SW 18 15216 13733 8117 Blue 20
4 PM Thu 92 95 SW 22 14328 12725 7109 Blue 18
5 PM Thu 90 92 SW 23 12865 11025 5409 Blue 15
6 PM Thu 86 86 SW 23 9303 7215 1599 Blue 9
7 PM Thu 80 80 W 22 5633 5616 0 Blue 3
8 PM Thu 75 75 W 21 4707 5616 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 71 71 W 20 4339 5616 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 69 69 W 20 4275 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 68 68 W 18 4275 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 68 68 W 17 4275 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 68 68 NW 17 4275 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 67 67 NW 16 4275 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 66 66 NW 15 4275 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 65 65 NW 15 4275 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 65 65 NW 14 4275 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 68 68 NW 12 4275 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 72 72 N 9 4431 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 77 77 N 8 4920 5616 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 80 82 NE 8 6518 5616 0 Blue 5
10 AM Fri 83 86 E 9 9303 7215 1599 Blue 9
11 AM Fri 86 91 SE 12 12313 10413 4797 Blue 14
12 Noon Fri 88 95 SE 13 14328 12725 7109 Blue 18
1 PM Fri 90 97 S 15 15216 13733 8117 Blue 20
2 PM Fri 91 98 S 16 15646 14188 8572 Blue 21
3 PM Fri 92 98 S 16 15646 14188 8572 Blue 21
4 PM Fri 92 96 S 17 14777 13254 7638 Blue 19
5 PM Fri 90 92 S 17 12865 11025 5409 Blue 15
6 PM Fri 86 86 S 18 9303 7215 1599 Blue 9
7 PM Fri 80 80 SW 20 5633 5616 0 Blue 3
8 PM Fri 75 75 SW 21 4707 5616 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 71 71 SW 20 4339 5616 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 69 69 W 17 4275 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 69 69 W 16 4275 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 68 68 W 15 4275 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 68 68 W 15 4275 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 67 67 W 15 4275 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 66 66 W 15 4275 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 65 65 NW 14 4275 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 65 65 NW 13 4275 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 68 68 W 10 4275 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 72 72 W 9 4431 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 77 77 SW 8 4920 5616 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 81 82 SW 8 6518 5616 0 Blue 5
10 AM Sat 85 88 S 9 10527 8579 2963 Blue 11
11 AM Sat 87 92 SE 12 12865 11025 5409 Blue 15
12 Noon Sat 89 95 SE 14 14328 12725 7109 Blue 18
1 PM Sat 90 97 S 16 15216 13733 8117 Blue 20
2 PM Sat 91 98 S 17 15646 14188 8572 Blue 21
3 PM Sat 93 99 S 18 16067 14633 9017 Blue 22
4 PM Sat 93 97 S 18 15216 13733 8117 Blue 20
5 PM Sat 91 93 S 18 13398 11613 5997 Blue 16
6 PM Sat 87 87 SW 20 9921 7914 2298 Blue 10
7 PM Sat 82 82 SW 21 6518 5616 0 Blue 5
8 PM Sat 77 77 W 22 4920 5616 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 73 73 W 22 4523 5616 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 72 72 W 22 4431 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 71 71 W 21 4339 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 70 70 W 20 4275 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 69 69 W 20 4275 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 69 69 W 18 4275 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 68 68 W 18 4275 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 67 67 W 18 4275 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 68 68 W 18 4275 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 70 70 W 16 4275 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 75 75 W 14 4707 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 79 79 W 12 5386 5616 0 Blue 2
9 AM Sun 83 85 W 10 8659 6476 860 Blue 8
10 AM Sun 87 91 S 10 12313 10413 4797 Blue 14
11 AM Sun 89 95 S 10 14328 12725 7109 Blue 18
12 Noon Sun 91 97 S 12 15216 13733 8117 Blue 20
1 PM Sun 92 98 S 14 15646 14188 8572 Blue 21
2 PM Sun 93 98 S 16 15646 14188 8572 Blue 21
3 PM Sun 95 99 SW 18 16067 14633 9017 Blue 22
4 PM Sun 95 97 SW 21 15216 13733 8117 Blue 20
5 PM Sun 93 94 SW 22 13868 12179 6563 Blue 17
6 PM Sun 89 89 SW 23 11147 9214 3598 Blue 12
7 PM Sun 83 83 W 23 7272 5627 11 Blue 6
8 PM Sun 78 78 W 23 5083 5616 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sun 74 74 W 23 4615 5616 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 73 73 W 23 4523 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 73 73 W 22 4523 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 72 72 W 21 4431 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 72 72 W 21 4431 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 71 71 W 20 4339 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 70 70 W 20 4275 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 69 69 NW 20 4275 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 69 69 NW 18 4275 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 72 72 NW 17 4431 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 76 76 NW 15 4799 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 81 81 NW 13 5852 5616 0 Blue 4
9 AM Mon 85 86 N 10 9303 7215 1599 Blue 9
10 AM Mon 88 89 E 9 11147 9214 3598 Blue 12
11 AM Mon 90 92 SE 9 12865 11025 5409 Blue 15
12 Noon Mon 92 95 S 10 14328 12725 7109 Blue 18
1 PM Mon 93 97 S 13 15216 13733 8117 Blue 20
2 PM Mon 94 97 S 15 15216 13733 8117 Blue 20
3 PM Mon 95 98 S 17 15646 14188 8572 Blue 21
4 PM Mon 95 97 SW 18 15216 13733 8117 Blue 20
5 PM Mon 93 94 SW 20 13868 12179 6563 Blue 17
6 PM Mon 89 89 SW 21 11147 9214 3598 Blue 12
7 PM Mon 83 83 SW 22 7272 5627 11 Blue 6
8 PM Mon 78 78 W 22 5083 5616 0 Blue 1
9 PM Mon 75 75 W 22 4707 5616 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 74 74 W 22 4615 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 73 73 W 21 4523 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 72 72 W 20 4431 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 72 72 W 18 4431 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 71 71 W 17 4339 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 70 70 NW 16 4275 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 69 69 NW 16 4275 5616 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com