Detailed Predictions for: Telluride
Launch Altitude (f): 12200
LZ Altitude (f): 8750
Sounding

Station:

 KGJT

Date/Time:

 4 FEB 2012

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
5 AM Sat 9 9 S 6 10364 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 9 9 SE 5 10364 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 9 9 SE 5 10364 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 10 10 SE 5 10364 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 11 11 SE 3 10364 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 14 14 S 3 12613 12200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 17 17 S 3 14785 12494 294 Blue 3
12 Noon Sat 18 19 SW 6 15456 14410 2210 White 5
1 PM Sat 19 20 W 8 15673 14740 2540 White 6
2 PM Sat 20 20 W 10 15673 14740 2540 White 6
3 PM Sat 19 19 W 9 15456 14410 2210 White 5
4 PM Sat 18 18 W 8 15238 13930 1730 White 4
5 PM Sat 18 18 W 7 15238 13930 1730 White 4
6 PM Sat 17 17 W 6 14785 12494 294 Blue 3
7 PM Sat 16 16 SW 6 14451 12200 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sat 15 15 S 6 13986 12200 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sat 14 14 S 6 12613 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 13 13 S 6 10364 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 12 12 S 7 10364 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 12 12 S 7 10364 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 11 11 S 8 10364 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 11 11 S 8 10364 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 11 11 S 7 10364 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 10 10 SE 7 10364 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 10 10 SE 6 10364 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 10 10 SE 6 10364 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 10 10 SE 6 10364 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 10 10 SE 6 10364 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 12 12 SE 5 10364 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 15 16 SE 5 14451 12200 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sun 17 17 SE 5 14785 12494 294 Blue 3
12 Noon Sun 18 19 S 6 15456 14410 2210 White 5
1 PM Sun 18 19 SW 8 15456 14410 2210 White 5
2 PM Sun 19 19 W 10 15456 14410 2210 White 5
3 PM Sun 18 18 W 9 15238 13930 1730 White 4
4 PM Sun 18 18 W 8 15238 13930 1730 White 4
5 PM Sun 17 17 W 7 14785 12494 294 Blue 3
6 PM Sun 17 17 SW 6 14785 12494 294 Blue 3
7 PM Sun 16 16 S 5 14451 12200 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sun 16 16 S 5 14451 12200 0 Blue 2
9 PM Sun 15 15 S 6 13986 12200 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sun 14 14 S 7 12613 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 14 14 S 8 12613 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 13 13 S 8 10364 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 13 13 S 8 10364 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 12 12 S 8 10364 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 12 12 S 7 10364 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 11 11 S 6 10364 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 11 11 S 5 10364 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 11 11 S 5 10364 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 10 10 S 5 10364 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 11 11 S 5 10364 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 13 13 SW 5 10364 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 16 16 SW 5 14451 12200 0 Blue 2
11 AM Mon 20 20 SW 5 15673 14740 2540 White 6
12 Noon Mon 21 22 W 5 16102 16102 3902 White 8
1 PM Mon 22 23 W 6 16316 16316 4116 White 9
2 PM Mon 23 23 W 6 16316 16316 4116 White 9
3 PM Mon 23 23 W 6 16316 16316 4116 White 9
4 PM Mon 22 22 W 6 16102 16102 3902 White 8
5 PM Mon 22 22 W 6 16102 16102 3902 White 8
6 PM Mon 20 20 W 5 15673 14740 2540 White 6
7 PM Mon 19 19 W 5 15456 14410 2210 White 5
8 PM Mon 18 18 W 3 15238 13930 1730 White 4
9 PM Mon 17 17 W 2 14785 12494 294 Blue 3
10 PM Mon 16 16 S 2 14451 12200 0 Blue 2
11 PM Mon 15 15 S 2 13986 12200 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Tue 15 15 S 2 13986 12200 0 Blue 1
1 AM Tue 14 14 S 3 12613 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 14 14 S 3 12613 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 13 13 S 3 10364 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 13 13 SE 3 10364 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 12 12 SE 3 10364 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 12 12 SE 3 10364 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 12 12 SE 3 10364 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 12 12 SE 3 10364 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 14 14 SE 3 12613 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 19 19 SE 3 15456 14410 2210 White 5
11 AM Tue 22 23 SW 3 16316 16316 4116 White 9
12 Noon Tue 24 25 SW 3 16742 16742 4542 White 11
1 PM Tue 26 27 SW 3 17166 17166 4966 White 13
2 PM Tue 26 27 SW 3 17166 17166 4966 White 13
3 PM Tue 26 26 SW 3 16954 16954 4754 White 12
4 PM Tue 26 26 SW 3 16954 16954 4754 White 12
5 PM Tue 25 25 W 6 16742 16742 4542 White 11
6 PM Tue 23 23 W 6 16316 16316 4116 White 9
7 PM Tue 22 22 W 6 16102 16102 3902 White 8
8 PM Tue 20 20 W 6 15673 14740 2540 White 6
9 PM Tue 19 19 W 6 15456 14410 2210 White 5
10 PM Tue 18 18 W 6 15238 13930 1730 White 4
11 PM Tue 17 17 S 6 14785 12494 294 Blue 3
12 Midnight Wed 17 17 S 6 14785 12494 294 Blue 3
1 AM Wed 16 16 S 6 14451 12200 0 Blue 2
2 AM Wed 16 16 S 6 14451 12200 0 Blue 2
3 AM Wed 15 15 S 6 13986 12200 0 Blue 1
4 AM Wed 15 15 S 6 13986 12200 0 Blue 1
5 AM Wed 14 14 SW 5 12613 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 14 14 SW 5 12613 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 14 14 SW 5 12613 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 14 14 SW 5 12613 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 16 16 SW 5 14451 12200 0 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 20 20 SW 5 15673 14740 2540 White 6
11 AM Wed 23 24 W 2 16528 16528 4328 White 10
12 Noon Wed 24 25 W 2 16742 16742 4542 White 11
1 PM Wed 25 26 W 2 16954 16954 4754 White 12
2 PM Wed 26 27 W 2 17166 17166 4966 White 13
3 PM Wed 25 25 W 2 16742 16742 4542 White 11
4 PM Wed 25 25 W 2 16742 16742 4542 White 11
5 PM Wed 24 24 NW 3 16528 16528 4328 White 10
6 PM Wed 23 23 NW 3 16316 16316 4116 White 9
7 PM Wed 22 22 NW 3 16102 16102 3902 White 8
8 PM Wed 21 21 NW 3 15887 15887 3687 White 7
9 PM Wed 20 20 NW 3 15673 14740 2540 White 6
10 PM Wed 19 19 NW 3 15456 14410 2210 White 5
11 PM Wed 18 18 SE 1 15238 13930 1730 White 4
12 Midnight Thu 18 18 SE 1 15238 13930 1730 White 4
1 AM Thu 18 18 SE 1 15238 13930 1730 White 4
2 AM Thu 17 17 SE 1 14785 12494 294 Blue 3
3 AM Thu 17 17 SE 1 14785 12494 294 Blue 3
4 AM Thu 16 16 SE 1 14451 12200 0 Blue 2
5 AM Thu 16 16 SE 2 14451 12200 0 Blue 2
6 AM Thu 16 16 SE 2 14451 12200 0 Blue 2
7 AM Thu 15 15 SE 2 13986 12200 0 Blue 1
8 AM Thu 16 16 SE 2 14451 12200 0 Blue 2
9 AM Thu 18 18 SE 2 15238 13930 1730 White 4
10 AM Thu 21 22 SE 2 16102 16102 3902 White 8
11 AM Thu 24 25 N 3 16742 16742 4542 White 11
12 Noon Thu 25 26 N 3 16954 16954 4754 White 12
1 PM Thu 26 27 N 3 17166 17166 4966 White 13
2 PM Thu 26 27 N 3 17166 17166 4966 White 13
3 PM Thu 26 26 N 3 16954 16954 4754 White 12
4 PM Thu 26 26 N 3 16954 16954 4754 White 12
5 PM Thu 25 25 N 6 16742 16742 4542 White 11
6 PM Thu 24 24 N 6 16528 16528 4328 White 10
7 PM Thu 23 23 N 6 16316 16316 4116 White 9
8 PM Thu 22 22 N 6 16102 16102 3902 White 8
9 PM Thu 21 21 N 6 15887 15887 3687 White 7
10 PM Thu 20 20 N 6 15673 14740 2540 White 6
11 PM Thu 19 19 E 3 15456 14410 2210 White 5
12 Midnight Fri 18 18 E 3 15238 13930 1730 White 4
1 AM Fri 18 18 E 3 15238 13930 1730 White 4
2 AM Fri 18 18 E 3 15238 13930 1730 White 4
3 AM Fri 17 17 E 3 14785 12494 294 Blue 3
4 AM Fri 17 17 E 3 14785 12494 294 Blue 3

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com