Detailed Predictions for: Telluride
Launch Altitude (f): 12200
LZ Altitude (f): 8750
Sounding

Station:

 KGJT

Date/Time:

 3 SEP 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
6 AM Fri 48 48 S 6 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 45 45 S 6 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 43 44 S 6 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 46 49 SE 2 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 51 55 SE 2 14493 12665 465 Blue 5
11 AM Fri 54 59 SE 2 16348 14951 2751 Blue 9
12 Noon Fri 55 59 W 7 16348 14951 2751 Blue 9
1 PM Fri 57 61 W 7 17568 15592 3392 Blue 11
2 PM Fri 59 62 W 7 18141 16236 4036 Blue 12
3 PM Fri 60 62 W 7 18141 16236 4036 Blue 12
4 PM Fri 61 62 W 7 18141 16236 4036 Blue 12
5 PM Fri 59 59 W 7 16348 14951 2751 Blue 9
6 PM Fri 56 56 W 6 14969 13074 874 Blue 6
7 PM Fri 55 55 W 6 14493 12665 465 Blue 5
8 PM Fri 54 54 W 6 13857 12250 50 Blue 4
9 PM Fri 53 53 W 1 13103 12200 0 Blue 3
10 PM Fri 51 51 W 1 12269 12200 0 Blue 1
11 PM Fri 53 53 W 1 13103 12200 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Sat 52 52 SW 2 12690 12200 0 Blue 2
1 AM Sat 52 52 SW 2 12690 12200 0 Blue 2
2 AM Sat 51 51 SW 2 12269 12200 0 Blue 1
3 AM Sat 50 50 SW 3 11581 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 49 49 SW 3 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 49 49 SW 3 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 47 47 SW 2 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 46 46 SW 2 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 44 45 SW 2 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 47 50 W 1 11581 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 52 56 W 1 14969 13074 874 Blue 6
11 AM Sat 56 62 W 1 18141 16236 4036 Blue 12
12 Noon Sat 57 61 W 7 17568 15592 3392 Blue 11
1 PM Sat 59 63 W 7 18694 16851 4651 Blue 13
2 PM Sat 61 65 W 7 19747 18008 5808 Blue 15
3 PM Sat 62 65 W 9 19747 18008 5808 Blue 15
4 PM Sat 63 64 W 9 19229 17441 5241 Blue 14
5 PM Sat 61 61 W 9 17568 15592 3392 Blue 11
6 PM Sat 57 57 W 9 15100 13770 1570 Blue 7
7 PM Sat 56 56 W 9 14969 13074 874 Blue 6
8 PM Sat 55 55 W 9 14493 12665 465 Blue 5
9 PM Sat 55 55 SW 2 14493 12665 465 Blue 5
10 PM Sat 52 52 SW 2 12690 12200 0 Blue 2
11 PM Sat 54 54 SW 2 13857 12250 50 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sun 53 53 S 6 13103 12200 0 Blue 3
1 AM Sun 53 53 S 6 13103 12200 0 Blue 3
2 AM Sun 52 52 S 6 12690 12200 0 Blue 2
3 AM Sun 51 51 S 7 12269 12200 0 Blue 1
4 AM Sun 49 49 S 7 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 49 49 S 7 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 46 46 SW 14 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 48 48 SW 14 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 50 51 SW 14 12269 12200 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sun 53 56 SW 17 14969 13074 874 Blue 6
10 AM Sun 56 60 SW 17 16971 15082 2882 Blue 10
11 AM Sun 60 66 SW 17 20251 18555 6355 Blue 16
12 Noon Sun 63 66 SW 26 20251 18555 6355 Blue 16
1 PM Sun 64 67 SW 26 21297 19085 6885 White 17
2 PM Sun 64 66 SW 26 20251 18555 6355 Blue 16
3 PM Sun 64 66 SW 25 20251 18555 6355 Blue 16
4 PM Sun 64 65 SW 25 19747 18008 5808 Blue 15
5 PM Sun 63 63 SW 25 18694 16851 4651 Blue 13
6 PM Sun 62 62 SW 26 18141 16236 4036 Blue 12
7 PM Sun 60 60 SW 26 16971 15082 2882 Blue 10
8 PM Sun 57 57 SW 26 15100 13770 1570 Blue 7
9 PM Sun 54 54 SW 23 13857 12250 50 Blue 4
10 PM Sun 50 50 SW 23 11581 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 47 47 SW 23 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 44 44 SW 25 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 43 43 SW 25 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 42 42 SW 25 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 42 42 SW 25 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 41 41 SW 25 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 41 41 SW 25 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 41 41 SW 24 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 42 42 SW 24 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 44 44 SW 24 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 47 48 SW 21 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 51 53 SW 21 13103 12200 0 Blue 3
11 AM Mon 55 58 SW 21 15695 14428 2228 Blue 8
12 Noon Mon 57 61 W 18 17568 15592 3392 Blue 11
1 PM Mon 58 61 W 18 17568 15592 3392 Blue 11
2 PM Mon 58 61 W 18 17568 15592 3392 Blue 11
3 PM Mon 57 59 W 17 16348 14951 2751 Blue 9
4 PM Mon 57 58 W 17 15695 14428 2228 Blue 8
5 PM Mon 57 57 W 17 15100 13770 1570 Blue 7
6 PM Mon 56 56 SW 15 14969 13074 874 Blue 6
7 PM Mon 54 54 SW 15 13857 12250 50 Blue 4
8 PM Mon 52 52 SW 15 12690 12200 0 Blue 2
9 PM Mon 50 50 S 10 11581 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 47 47 S 10 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 45 45 S 10 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 43 43 SE 7 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 43 43 SE 7 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 42 42 SE 7 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 42 42 S 7 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 42 42 S 7 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 41 41 S 7 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 41 41 S 9 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 43 43 S 9 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 44 45 S 9 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 47 49 - 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 50 53 - 13103 12200 0 Blue 3
11 AM Tue 53 56 - 14969 13074 874 Blue 6
12 Noon Tue 55 58 SW 18 15695 14428 2228 Blue 8
1 PM Tue 55 58 SW 18 15695 14428 2228 Blue 8
2 PM Tue 55 57 SW 18 15100 13770 1570 Blue 7
3 PM Tue 55 57 - 15100 13770 1570 Blue 7
4 PM Tue 55 56 - 14969 13074 874 Blue 6
5 PM Tue 55 55 - 14493 12665 465 Blue 5
6 PM Tue 54 54 S 12 13857 12250 50 Blue 4
7 PM Tue 53 53 S 12 13103 12200 0 Blue 3
8 PM Tue 52 52 S 12 12690 12200 0 Blue 2
9 PM Tue 50 50 - 11581 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 49 49 - 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 47 47 - 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 46 46 S 14 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 46 46 S 14 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 46 46 S 14 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 46 46 - 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 45 45 - 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 45 45 - 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 45 45 SE 13 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 46 46 SE 13 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 48 48 SE 13 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 50 51 - 12269 12200 0 Blue 1
10 AM Wed 51 53 - 13103 12200 0 Blue 3
11 AM Wed 53 56 - 14969 13074 874 Blue 6
12 Noon Wed 54 57 S 18 15100 13770 1570 Blue 7
1 PM Wed 55 58 S 18 15695 14428 2228 Blue 8
2 PM Wed 55 57 S 18 15100 13770 1570 Blue 7
3 PM Wed 56 58 - 15695 14428 2228 Blue 8
4 PM Wed 56 57 - 15100 13770 1570 Blue 7
5 PM Wed 55 55 - 14493 12665 465 Blue 5
6 PM Wed 54 54 S 17 13857 12250 50 Blue 4
7 PM Wed 52 52 S 17 12690 12200 0 Blue 2
8 PM Wed 51 51 S 17 12269 12200 0 Blue 1
9 PM Wed 50 50 - 11581 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 49 49 - 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 48 48 - 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 48 48 S 12 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 47 47 S 12 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 47 47 S 12 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 46 46 - 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 46 46 - 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 45 45 - 10512 12200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com