Detailed Predictions for: Mt Crested Butte
Launch Altitude (f): 11500
LZ Altitude (f): 8700
Sounding

Station:

 KGJT

Date/Time:

 3 SEP 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
6 AM Fri 38 38 SE 2 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 38 38 SE 2 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 41 42 SE 2 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 46 49 E 2 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 51 55 E 2 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 57 63 E 2 14037 12347 847 Blue 5
12 Noon Fri 61 66 NW 5 15117 13908 2408 Blue 8
1 PM Fri 63 68 NW 5 16393 14964 3464 Blue 10
2 PM Fri 66 70 NW 5 17575 15625 4125 Blue 12
3 PM Fri 67 70 NW 8 17575 15625 4125 Blue 12
4 PM Fri 66 67 NW 8 15761 14497 2997 Blue 9
5 PM Fri 65 65 NW 8 14988 13148 1648 Blue 7
6 PM Fri 64 64 NW 8 14590 12751 1251 Blue 6
7 PM Fri 59 59 NW 8 11973 11500 0 Blue 1
8 PM Fri 54 54 NW 8 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 50 50 SW 0 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 47 47 SW 0 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 46 46 SW 0 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 46 46 SW 1 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 46 46 SW 1 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 45 45 SW 1 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 45 45 SW 1 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 44 44 SW 1 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 42 42 SW 1 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 43 43 SW 2 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 42 42 SW 2 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 45 46 SW 2 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 49 52 SE 1 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 54 58 SE 1 10096 11500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 59 64 SE 1 14590 12751 1251 Blue 6
12 Noon Sat 62 67 NW 6 15761 14497 2997 Blue 9
1 PM Sat 65 70 NW 6 17575 15625 4125 Blue 12
2 PM Sat 67 71 NW 6 18133 16250 4750 Blue 13
3 PM Sat 68 71 NW 9 18133 16250 4750 Blue 13
4 PM Sat 67 68 NW 9 16393 14964 3464 Blue 10
5 PM Sat 65 65 NW 9 14988 13148 1648 Blue 7
6 PM Sat 64 64 NW 9 14590 12751 1251 Blue 6
7 PM Sat 60 60 NW 9 12388 11500 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sat 54 54 NW 9 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 50 50 S 2 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 47 47 S 2 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 46 46 S 2 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 46 46 S 3 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 46 46 S 3 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 45 45 S 3 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 45 45 S 3 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 44 44 S 3 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 42 42 S 3 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 45 45 SE 13 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 46 46 SE 13 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 49 50 SE 13 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 52 55 SW 14 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 57 61 SW 14 12797 11500 0 Blue 3
11 AM Sun 62 68 SW 14 16393 14964 3464 Blue 10
12 Noon Sun 66 69 SW 25 16996 15092 3592 Blue 11
1 PM Sun 68 71 SW 25 18133 16250 4750 Blue 13
2 PM Sun 69 71 SW 25 18133 16250 4750 Blue 13
3 PM Sun 69 70 W 24 17575 15625 4125 Blue 12
4 PM Sun 70 71 W 24 18133 16250 4750 Blue 13
5 PM Sun 70 70 W 24 17575 15625 4125 Blue 12
6 PM Sun 69 69 SW 23 16996 15092 3592 Blue 11
7 PM Sun 66 66 SW 23 15117 13908 2408 Blue 8
8 PM Sun 60 60 SW 23 12388 11500 0 Blue 2
9 PM Sun 55 55 SW 15 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 51 51 SW 15 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 48 48 SW 15 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 46 46 SW 17 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 45 45 SW 17 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 44 44 SW 17 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 43 43 W 20 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 42 42 W 20 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 41 41 W 20 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 41 41 W 20 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 42 42 W 20 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 44 45 W 20 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 47 49 W 18 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 51 54 W 18 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 54 57 W 18 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 57 61 W 17 12797 11500 0 Blue 3
1 PM Mon 58 62 W 17 13199 11937 437 Blue 4
2 PM Mon 58 61 W 17 12797 11500 0 Blue 3
3 PM Mon 58 60 W 16 12388 11500 0 Blue 2
4 PM Mon 58 59 W 16 11973 11500 0 Blue 1
5 PM Mon 58 58 W 16 10096 11500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 57 57 W 14 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 55 55 W 14 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 51 51 W 14 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 47 47 S 9 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 45 45 S 9 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 43 43 S 9 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 42 42 E 5 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 41 41 E 5 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 40 40 E 5 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 39 39 E 5 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 39 39 E 5 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 38 38 E 5 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 38 38 E 6 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 39 39 E 6 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 42 43 E 6 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 45 47 - 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 49 52 - 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 54 57 - 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 58 61 SW 18 12797 11500 0 Blue 3
1 PM Tue 60 63 SW 18 14037 12347 847 Blue 5
2 PM Tue 61 64 SW 18 14590 12751 1251 Blue 6
3 PM Tue 61 63 - 14037 12347 847 Blue 5
4 PM Tue 62 63 - 14037 12347 847 Blue 5
5 PM Tue 62 62 - 13199 11937 437 Blue 4
6 PM Tue 61 61 SW 9 12797 11500 0 Blue 3
7 PM Tue 58 58 SW 9 10096 11500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 54 54 SW 9 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 50 50 - 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 47 47 - 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 45 45 - 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 43 43 E 6 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 42 42 E 6 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 42 42 E 6 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 41 41 - 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 41 41 - 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 40 40 - 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 40 40 E 7 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 42 42 E 7 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 45 46 E 7 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 48 50 - 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 52 55 - 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 55 58 - 10096 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 57 60 S 9 12388 11500 0 Blue 2
1 PM Wed 59 62 S 9 13199 11937 437 Blue 4
2 PM Wed 60 63 S 9 14037 12347 847 Blue 5
3 PM Wed 61 63 - 14037 12347 847 Blue 5
4 PM Wed 61 62 - 13199 11937 437 Blue 4
5 PM Wed 60 60 - 12388 11500 0 Blue 2
6 PM Wed 58 58 NW 6 10096 11500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 54 54 NW 6 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 51 51 NW 6 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 50 50 - 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 48 48 - 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 47 47 - 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 46 46 W 3 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 46 46 W 3 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 44 44 W 3 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 44 44 - 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 43 43 - 9078 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 42 42 - 9078 11500 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com