Detailed Predictions for: Mt Crested Butte
Launch Altitude (f): 11500
LZ Altitude (f): 8700
Sounding

Station:

 KGJT

Date/Time:

 4 FEB 2012

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
5 AM Sat 6 6 E 7 8602 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 6 6 E 6 8602 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 6 6 E 6 8602 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 7 7 E 5 8602 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 11 11 E 5 8602 11500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 17 18 SE 5 8862 11500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 22 23 SE 5 12592 11500 0 White 4
12 Noon Sat 25 26 S 5 13247 13247 1747 White 7
1 PM Sat 26 27 S 3 13465 13465 1965 White 8
2 PM Sat 27 28 S 3 13683 13683 2183 White 9
3 PM Sat 27 27 SW 3 13465 13465 1965 White 8
4 PM Sat 25 25 NW 3 13030 11500 0 White 6
5 PM Sat 24 24 N 3 12811 11500 0 White 5
6 PM Sat 22 22 NE 3 11077 11500 0 Blue 3
7 PM Sat 20 20 E 5 9680 11500 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sat 18 18 SE 5 8862 11500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 17 17 SE 5 8602 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 16 16 SE 6 8602 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 14 14 SE 6 8602 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 13 13 SE 6 8602 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 12 12 SE 5 8602 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 11 11 SE 5 8602 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 10 10 E 5 8602 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 9 9 E 5 8602 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 8 8 E 5 8602 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 8 8 E 5 8602 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 8 8 E 5 8602 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 9 9 E 5 8602 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 13 13 SE 5 8602 11500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 18 19 SE 3 9337 11500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 22 23 S 3 12592 11500 0 White 4
12 Noon Sun 24 25 S 5 13030 11500 0 White 6
1 PM Sun 27 28 SW 6 13683 13683 2183 White 9
2 PM Sun 28 29 W 7 13898 13898 2398 White 10
3 PM Sun 28 28 W 7 13683 13683 2183 White 9
4 PM Sun 28 28 W 7 13683 13683 2183 White 9
5 PM Sun 27 27 W 6 13465 13465 1965 White 8
6 PM Sun 25 25 W 5 13030 11500 0 White 6
7 PM Sun 23 23 W 5 12592 11500 0 White 4
8 PM Sun 20 20 SW 3 9680 11500 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sun 17 17 SW 3 8602 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 15 15 S 3 8602 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 12 12 S 3 8602 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 11 11 S 5 8602 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 10 10 S 5 8602 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 9 9 S 5 8602 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 8 8 S 3 8602 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 7 7 SE 2 8602 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 5 5 SE 1 8602 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 5 5 SE 1 8602 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 5 5 SE 1 8602 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 7 7 SE 1 8602 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 11 11 SE 1 8602 11500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 17 17 SW 2 8602 11500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 23 24 W 2 12811 11500 0 White 5
12 Noon Mon 26 27 W 3 13465 13465 1965 White 8
1 PM Mon 28 29 W 5 13898 13898 2398 White 10
2 PM Mon 28 29 W 5 13898 13898 2398 White 10
3 PM Mon 28 28 W 5 13683 13683 2183 White 9
4 PM Mon 28 28 W 3 13683 13683 2183 White 9
5 PM Mon 26 26 W 3 13247 13247 1747 White 7
6 PM Mon 25 25 W 3 13030 11500 0 White 6
7 PM Mon 22 22 W 2 11077 11500 0 Blue 3
8 PM Mon 19 19 W 2 9337 11500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 17 17 NW 2 8602 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 15 15 N 1 8602 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 13 13 N 1 8602 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 11 11 N 1 8602 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 9 9 NE 1 8602 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 8 8 NE 1 8602 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 7 7 NE 1 8602 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 5 5 E 1 8602 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 5 5 E 1 8602 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 5 5 E 1 8602 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 5 5 E 1 8602 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 7 7 E 1 8602 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 11 11 E 1 8602 11500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 18 18 E 1 8862 11500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 23 23 W 2 12592 11500 0 White 4
12 Noon Tue 26 27 W 2 13465 13465 1965 White 8
1 PM Tue 28 29 W 2 13898 13898 2398 White 10
2 PM Tue 29 29 W 2 13898 13898 2398 White 10
3 PM Tue 29 29 W 2 13898 13898 2398 White 10
4 PM Tue 29 29 W 2 13898 13898 2398 White 10
5 PM Tue 27 27 W 5 13465 13465 1965 White 8
6 PM Tue 25 25 W 5 13030 11500 0 White 6
7 PM Tue 23 23 W 5 12592 11500 0 White 4
8 PM Tue 20 20 W 5 9680 11500 0 Blue 1
9 PM Tue 17 17 W 5 8602 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 15 15 W 5 8602 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 13 13 SW 1 8602 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 11 11 SW 1 8602 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 9 9 SW 1 8602 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 8 8 SW 1 8602 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 6 6 SW 1 8602 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 5 5 SW 1 8602 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 4 4 W 2 8602 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 4 4 W 2 8602 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 5 5 W 2 8602 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 7 7 W 2 8602 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 12 12 W 2 8602 11500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 19 20 W 2 9680 11500 0 Blue 1
11 AM Wed 25 26 W 3 13247 13247 1747 White 7
12 Noon Wed 29 30 W 3 14113 14113 2613 White 11
1 PM Wed 31 32 W 3 14538 14538 3038 White 13
2 PM Wed 32 33 W 3 14750 14750 3250 White 14
3 PM Wed 32 32 W 3 14538 14538 3038 White 13
4 PM Wed 31 31 W 3 14327 14327 2827 White 12
5 PM Wed 30 30 NW 3 14113 14113 2613 White 11
6 PM Wed 28 28 NW 3 13683 13683 2183 White 9
7 PM Wed 25 25 NW 3 13030 11500 0 White 6
8 PM Wed 22 22 NW 3 11077 11500 0 Blue 3
9 PM Wed 19 19 NW 3 9337 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 17 17 NW 3 8602 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 14 14 NW 1 8602 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 13 13 NW 1 8602 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 11 11 NW 1 8602 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 10 10 NW 1 8602 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 8 8 NW 1 8602 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 7 7 NW 1 8602 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 6 6 NW 1 8602 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 6 6 NW 1 8602 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 6 6 NW 1 8602 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 8 8 NW 1 8602 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 13 13 NW 1 8602 11500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 20 21 NW 1 10183 11500 0 Blue 2
11 AM Thu 26 27 NW 3 13465 13465 1965 White 8
12 Noon Thu 29 30 NW 3 14113 14113 2613 White 11
1 PM Thu 31 32 NW 3 14538 14538 3038 White 13
2 PM Thu 32 33 NW 3 14750 14750 3250 White 14
3 PM Thu 32 32 NW 3 14538 14538 3038 White 13
4 PM Thu 31 31 NW 3 14327 14327 2827 White 12
5 PM Thu 30 30 NW 5 14113 14113 2613 White 11
6 PM Thu 28 28 NW 5 13683 13683 2183 White 9
7 PM Thu 26 26 NW 5 13247 13247 1747 White 7
8 PM Thu 23 23 NW 5 12592 11500 0 White 4
9 PM Thu 20 20 NW 5 9680 11500 0 Blue 1
10 PM Thu 18 18 NW 5 8862 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 16 16 N 2 8602 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 14 14 N 2 8602 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 13 13 N 2 8602 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 11 11 N 2 8602 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 10 10 N 2 8602 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 9 9 N 2 8602 11500 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com